Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’Em
Tyler Warren is the TE10 in fantasy points per game. Warren has a 19.3% target share with 51.3 receiving yards per game, 1.82 yards per route run, and an 18.4% first-read share. Warren leads the team with 16 red zone targets while seeing only two deep targets this season. Last week, Warren finished as the TE30 for the week with three receptions, 19 receiving yards, a 22.2% target share, and a 26.1% first-read share. He could easily bounce back this week as a low-end TE1. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards, the 11th-most yards per target, and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Travis Kelce is the TE5 in fantasy points per game with a 17.9% target share, 56.9 receiving yards per game, 1.82 yards per route run, and a 19.1% first-read share. Kelce has 11 red zone targets and seven deep targets this season. Even with Gardner Minshew tossing him passes, Kelce is a strong TE1 this week. Since Week 9, Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most yards per target and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Over the last two weeks, Colby Parkinson has been the TE11 and TE5 in weekly scoring, and he could easily stack another TE1 finish this week. Since Week 14, Parkinson has had a 63.9% route share, a 17.4% target share, 53.5 receiving yards per game, 2.33 yards per route run, and a 16.4% first-read share. In those two games, he has seen a whopping seven red zone targets and two deep targets with three touchdowns. Seattle has been a good matchup for tight ends this season, giving up the ninth-most yards per target and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Parkinson is a STRONG TE1 this week. I expect Matthew Stafford to lean on him as the second option in the passing attack behind Puka Nacua with Davante Adams out.
Excluding the Week 7 game, where Waller left early with the pec injury, he has had a 61.5% route share with a 15.7% target share, 40.5 receiving yards per game, 2.11 yards per route run, and an 18.9% first-read share. In those six games, Waller has had seven red zone targets, four deep targets, and six touchdowns. In that span, he has averaged 13.5 PPR points per game, which over the course of the entire season would make him the TE5 in fantasy points per game. Waller the Baller should cook again this week. The Bengals have allowed the most receiving yards and the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Since Week 7, Dalton Schultz has been the TE9 in fantasy points per game with six TE1 weekly finishes. Since Week 7, Schultz has had a 19.2% target share with 51.6 receiving yards per game, 1.60 yards per route run, and an 18.3% first-read share. In those nine games, Schultz has had six red zone targets and four deep targets with two touchdowns. Since Week 11, the Raiders have ranked 19th in yards per target and 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Schultz could be a TE1 again this week.
Jake Ferguson is the TE8 in fantasy points per game with a 17.5% target share, 40.7 receiving yards per game, 1.34 yards per route run, and a 19.7% first-read share. Ferguson ranks second in red zone targets among tight ends while also kicking in four deep targets. Ferguson should provide solid TE1 production this week. Since Week 10, the Bolts have allowed the fifth-most yards per target and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Since Week 12, Brenton Strange has had two TE1 weekly finishes (TE4, TE7). In his last four games, Strange has had a 15% target share, 47.8 receiving yards per game, 2.08 yards per route run, and a 14.5% first-read share with five red zone targets and four deep targets. Strange should produce as a TE1 again this week, and he could lead the Jags’ passing attack. Since Week 9, Denver has allowed the third-most receiving yards and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Sit’Em
Since Week 12, with Shedeur Sanders under center, Fannin has been the TE5 in fantasy points per game with a 28.5% target share, 61.3 receiving yards per game, 2.08 yards per route run, and a 31.8% first-read share. In those four games, Fannin has had three red zone targets and two deep targets (two touchdowns). Fannin could see enough volume to carry him across the TE1 line for this week, but I’m worried. I don’t like starting tight ends against the Bills. This pass defense has been elite against tight ends for the last few seasons. This year, Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Hunter Henry is the TE16 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 weekly finishes this season. Among tight ends, he ranks third in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets. Henry has a 16.8% target share with 44.9 receiving yards per game, 1.70 yards per route run, and a 19.2% first-read share. Sit Henry this week. Since Week 9, Baltimore has allowed the fewest yards per target and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Mark Andrews has been maddening this season. Last week, he had another dud game in a great spot. Andrews has only four TE1 weekly finishes this season and has surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game only once this season. Andrews has a 15.9% target share with 25.6 receiving yards per game, 1.28 yards per route run, and a 20.8% first-read share. He has 13 red zone targets and only two deep targets. Andrews looks like he’s headed for another down game this week. Since Week 9, New England has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-fewest yards per target to tight ends.
AJ Barner is the TE23 in fantasy points per game with a 64.8% route share, a 13.5% target share, 29.5 receiving yards per game, 1.51 yards per route run, and an 11.2% first-read share. Barner is second on the team with ten red zone targets while also drawing two deep targets. Barner isn’t on the streaming radar this week. Since Week 11, the Rams have limited tight ends to the second-fewest yards per target and the third-fewest fantasy points per game.
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