Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
After last week’s monster performance, Fannin Jr. is the TE11 in fantasy points per game for the season. Since Week 12, with Shedeur Sanders under center, he has had a 23.9% target share with 65.7 receiving yards per game, 2.43 yards per route run, and a 25% first-read share. In those three games, he has one red zone target and two deep targets. Fannin draws another favorable matchup this week. Chicago has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. He’s a locked-in TE1.
With Jaxson Dart under center, Theo Johnson has been the TE12 in fantasy points per game with five top-12 finishes among tight ends in weekly scoring. Since Week 4, Johnson has had a 19.1% target share with 40.7 receiving yards per game, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 22.5% first-read share. In those 10 games, he has had nine red-zone targets, four deep targets, and five receiving touchdowns. Johnson could easily be a TE1 again this week. Washington has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards, the second-highest yards per target, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Since Week 3, Dalton Schultz has been the TE13 in fantasy points per game with an 18.2% target share, 47 receiving yards per game, 1.53 yards per route run, and a 19.2% first-read share. In those 11 games, he has had seven red zone targets, five deep targets, and only one touchdown. Schultz is a strong TE1 this week. The Cardinals have allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per target, and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Since Week 9, with Tyler Shough under center, Juwan Johnson has been the TE8 in fantasy points per game with a 17.3% target share, 49.2 receiving yards per game, 1.94 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. In those five games, Johnson has had two red zone targets and one deep target. This week, he faces a Carolina pass defense that, since Week 8, has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (58.5%). Since Week 9, against single high, Johnson has had a 20.6% target share with 1.75 yards per route run and a 22.9% first-read share. Johnson could easily be a TE1 again this week. Carolina has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Deep Plays to Consider
Last week, Dalton Kincaid had only a 41.7% route share. Sure, he paid off for fantasy with a 17.9% target share, 41 receiving yards, 2.73 yards per route run, a touchdown, and a 27.8% first-read share, but that is a tough bet to make weekly. With that limited route share, Kincaid has to get peppered with targets and hopefully score a touchdown to pay off. He’s been a limited snap player all year, but a 50-60% route share is a different conversation from a player living in the 40s. Could he pay off again this week? It’s possible. New England has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Starting Kincaid this week depends upon your willingness to embrace risk and your options at tight end. I don’t think Kincaid’s knee and hamstring will be much healthier than they were last week, so he’s probably looking at a similar route share range in Week 15.
Mark Andrews has had a wildly disappointing season as the TE20 in fantasy points per game. In his last outing against Cincy, he was the TE17 for the week, securing four of his six targets with 47 receiving yards. Sadly, that is the most receiving yards Andrews has had in a game this season. Andrews has four TE1 weekly finishes this season, but they have all been fueled by touchdowns. The last time the Ravens faced the Bengals, they utilized two high with 52.6% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Andrews has had a 15% target share with 0.77 yards per route run and a 23.2% first-read share. Andrews could have a strong game against this porous pass defense, and it wouldn’t shock me, but he easily could flop again. The range of outcomes for Andrews is wide this week, which makes him tough to trust in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Cincy has allowed the most receiving yards, yards per target, and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
The last time Isaiah Likely faced Cincy in Week 13, he secured five of his six targets with 95 receiving yards as the TE9 for the week. In that same game, the Bengals utilized two high with 52.6% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Likely has had a 13.8% target share with 1.41 yards per route run and a 10.5% first-read share. Likely has been the more productive tight end this season for Baltimore against two high this season, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him outproduce Mark Andrews again. Likely is a solid streaming option at tight end this week. Cincy has allowed the most receiving yards, yards per target, and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Sit’em
Just as everyone bought into Brenton Strange last week, he tosses a dud. Last week, in a wonderful matchup, he secured only three of his six targets for 27 scoreless receiving yards. Since Week 12, he has two TE1 weekly finishes (TE4, TE7) while drawing a 17% target share with 55 receiving yards per game, 2.39 yards per route run, and a 17.7% first-read share. In those three games, he has had three red zone targets and four deep targets. This isn’t the week to consider going back to Strange. Since Week 9, the Jets have allowed the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Hunter Henry is the TE12 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 weekly outings. Henry has a 17% target share with 46.9 receiving yards per game, 1.76 yards per route run, and a 19.3% first-read share. Henry leads the team with 16 red zone targets while also seeing six deep targets. This isn’t a week to plug Henry into the starting lineup. The Bills have been an elite team at covering tight ends for the last few seasons, and this one isn’t any different. Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Since his return to the lineup, Darren Waller has had a 60.8% route share, a 13.6% target share, 30 receiving yards per game, 1.94 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. All of those per-route metrics look solid to really damn good. The problem is that with Miami skewing so run-heavy, the market share of targets for Waller has amounted to only three targets per game. With the limited weekly raw volume now, Waller is a touchdown-or-bust streaming option. In his last two games, he has one red zone target and two deep targets. Waller is best left on the bench this week. Since Week 9, Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target, the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game, and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
After last week’s strong game, Dallas Goedert is the TE10 in fantasy points per game with an 18.1% target share, 40.1 receiving yards per game, 1.41 yards per route run, and a 19.8% first-read share. He has eight red zone targets and six deep targets. This isn’t the week to auto plug Goedert into your lineups. The Raiders have been tough against tight ends, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Consider other options at tight end this week.
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