Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope everyone across the nation is braving this brutal weather as we inch closer to the All-Star break. It’s been a profitable season so far, where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few points. That’s all part of the season, and I know a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a decent five-game main slate, so you might have to be a little picky or just stick to cash unless you’re willing to be a bit risky.
In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope everyone across the nation is braving this brutal weather as we inch closer to the All-Star break. It’s been a profitable season so far, where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few points. That’s all part of the season, and I know a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a decent five-game main slate, so you might have to be a little picky or just stick to cash unless you’re willing to be a bit risky.
In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $12,000
- FanDuel: $12,500
I don’t expect it to come as much surprise to see Luka Doncic as the anchor for a lot of lineups. Despite his hefty price tag, he has the highest ceiling of any player on the main slate and gets a friendly matchup to go with it. Chicago has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opponents this year across the board. They are 24th in defensive rating while maintaining a top-five pace of play.
That, combined with the Lakers’ top-10 offensive rating, puts Doncic in a position to go over the benchmark of 50 fantasy points in this game that leads the main slate with a 237-point total. I’d try to find a way to fit Doncic into your lineups because the opportunity cost is too high otherwise. I expect him and LeBron James to be highly rostered in the Windy City tonight.
- DraftKings: $8,900
- FanDuel: $8,700
Evan Mobley has been a cash game staple for most of the season, so it’s nice to see him get a promotion to a core play. After a sub-par 28 fantasy point effort, I’m going right back to the well for the Cleveland big man, who came off that game with a 65 DraftKings point outing.
Mobley has averaged an additional five points a game at home this season, and there isn’t a better chance for a bounce-back game than tonight. The last time Mobley scored fewer than 30 fantasy points was back in December. It would not only be shocking to see that again, but he should get a lot more opportunities if De’Andre Hunter misses again. The Cleveland power forward should play around 34 minutes with a 24% usage rate, projecting him for around 45 fantasy points with another solid chance at a ceiling output.
- DraftKings: $6,900
- FanDuel: $7,300
For my cheaper core option tonight, I’m taking a bit of a swing and going with Desmond Bane. This is a bit of a riskier play, as Bane does perform better at home, but this is a simple misprice for someone who projects around 36 points tonight.
In addition to that, Cleveland ranks 20th defensively over their last 10 games. You don’t have a lot of salary-saving options right now as we wait for an updated injury report. Bane offers a good place to start, trusting he can get over 25 points as a floor while showing his capacity for 50+ point outings already in the New Year.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $7,200
- FanDuel: $7,200
There is a solid amount of center options available tonight, and the Bulls center has been one of the most consistent. He’s gone over 35 fantasy points in 11 of his last 12 games, and I don’t expect that trend to stop now. Despite the big fat red first next to the opponent rank for the Lakers, Nikola Vucevic’s usage and minutes raise his floor, which is favorable with his price tag.
Vucevic has averaged over 32 minutes a night with a 22% usage rate in his last seven games, and the Lakers’ defense ranks 25th in efficiency this season. He also gets a bit of a bump at home while L.A. continues on their road trip, coming off their game in Dallas. As five-game slates go, this is one of the more dependable plays you can get for a relatively low price.
- DraftKings: $8,500
- FanDuel: $8,400
I feel like a broken record when discussing Julius Randle, but he keeps performing compared to expectations, so I will continue discussing him until proven otherwise. This entire season, across 46 games, the Minnesota power forward has gone under 30 fantasy points once. He has a 27% usage rate on the season and gets the Warriors at home.
This is the second-highest total on the slate, and it’s hard to find someone with a higher floor. While Randle has gone over 50 points a fair amount of times this year, we’ve yet to see a pure ceiling game from the Timberwolves forward. I imagine the Warriors’ solid defense will cap that ability, but it should be easy for him to break 40. Randle makes for a solid return on your cash lineup investment.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $6,100
- FanDuel: $5,800
While it is still early in the day, Jabari Smith’s rostership seems a little low despite the 222-point total in this game as Houston takes on the Memphis Grizzlies. The Auburn product is coming off a 37 fantasy point effort and has been averaging 34 fantasy points a night over his last six games. If he gets there again, that puts him over 5X for his salary on both sites. A solid play, if you ask me.
Memphis has been downgraded a bit without Santi Aldama in the fold. Over their last 15 games, the Grizzlies have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Smith has gone over 40 fantasy points a handful of times this year and is playing hefty minutes, averaging 37 a night over the last two weeks. Memphis also plays at a top-10 pace of play, so despite the low total, I’m not scared of a low possession rate capping the Houston forward. I expect him and Kevin Durant to be solid leverage plays tonight against the Grizzlies.
- DraftKings: $7,700
- FanDuel: $8,200
Rostership can change at a moment’s notice, but it appears that Boston-Portland is a bit of a forgotten game on today’s slate. Nothing really pops with the Celtics’ slow pace of play, but despite that, Boston still has the second-highest implied team total on this five-game slate. I imagine a lot of rostership will lean towards Jaylen Brown, who should rightfully get that love, but don’t forget about Derrick White.
The Boston guard is coming off a 40-point effort and is at his lowest price in a while. He’s capable of going over 50, even with Brown in the lineup. Portland offers a big pace-up spot, and the Trail Blazers’ defense takes a step back when playing on the road, not to mention across the country. The 34 minutes a night White averages will offer plenty of opportunity for him to put up points. He is one of the more trustworthy GPP plays I’ve offered up this season, even on a smaller slate.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $3,400
- FanDuel: $3,800
With no Jonathan Kuminga in the fold, there’s a chance Gui Santos starts as he did on Thursday at Dallas. Either way, he makes for a solid punt option tonight. He’s coming off a 22 fantasy point outing, which would be more than enough return on investment (ROI) at his sub-$4,000 price tag.
Minnesota isn’t exactly the friendliest of fantasy opponents, but its defense has dropped a bit over their recent play. The hope here is that Santos gets to 20 minutes tonight and just as many fantasy points are returned. He doesn’t kill your lineups due to his bottom-of-the-barrel pricing.
- DraftKings: $5,600
- FanDuel: $6,100
I know he’s not exactly the cheapest optionsto fall into this category, but Brandin Podziemski is still underpriced on DraftKings. He has earned his keep of late, averaging over 33 fantasy points a night over his last six games with a near 25% usage rate to go with it.
Minnesota has surprisingly allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards over their last 15 games, so Golden State is catching the Timberwolves at the opportune time for a solid outing out of Podziemski. I like him better in cash as I imagine he’ll get significant rostership with almost 30 minutes expected, but he still makes for a fine GPP play.
