Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve been staying warm wherever you are, as it’s been chilly across America recently. This article is here to provide you with some of the best plays across the main slate today. It’s been a profitable season so far, where we’ve missed out on some big wins by just a few hiccups. That’s all part of the season, and I know a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a decent five- or six-game main slate tonight, so you might have to be a little picky or just stick to cash unless you’re willing to be a bit risky. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $9,700
- FanDuel: N/A
I know he’s not on FanDuel, so I apologize, but Victor Wembanyama is too good to pass up on tonight. Since his injury and steady comeback to full-time status, I’ve been waiting for this moment to go all in on the Spurs big man. Now is the time. Saying Utah is bad is like saying the sun is hot — it’s accurate, but doesn’t really give the full context.
No team has allowed more fantasy points this year than the Jazz. No team has a worse defense. The cherry on top is that the Jazz are the third-fastest-paced team in the league, so the Spurs will get an additional possession rate to go with their solid offense that runs through Wembanyama. I’d lean playing Wembanyama in cash contests rather than GPPs simply because they may pull him if San Antonio is up big early, and he may not get his full allotment of minutes. But at the same time, if the Spurs are up big in the third quarter, it’s likely because he has gotten his fill.
- DraftKings: $9,500
- FanDuel: $10,000
Next up tonight, we’ve got Anthony Edwards as Minnesota and Co. host the Chicago Bulls. After 68 and 59 fantasy point games, Anthony Edwards has gotten a bit of a price bump, but still lines up as a solid play, especially with his ceiling.
The Bulls’ defense ranks in the bottom third while playing at the fourth-fastest pace in the league. Chicago’s defense also takes a step back defensively when playing on the road this year, ranking 24th across the NBA. What I love about Edwards is that his rostership isn’t taking off for the early projections, he’s got a clear ceiling, and his recent 33% usage rate provides him with a clear floor against a plus team to face. I will be overowned on the Minnesota guard-forward if current projections remain.
- DraftKings: $7,100
- FanDuel: $6,800
Never thought I’d be writing about how Aaron Gordon is one of my core plays of the day, but that’s what I love about NBA DFS. With no Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets’ usage and minutes have seen a big shakeup, and the former Arizona Wildcat has been a big benefactor.
Gordon has averaged 36 DraftKings points a night over his last few games and now sees one of the friendliest matchups you can ask for. The Washington Wizards are a big pace-up spot for Denver and have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards. Gordon’s usage has been at 24% this season, and he should play over 30 minutes as a 1.20 fantasy points per minute player. I don’t expect him necessarily to be a must-roster player, but with the matchup and minutes, he is a solid anchor point to start your lineups without having to spend up too much.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $9,800
- FanDuel: $10,100
I’ll note that Jamal Murray was dealing with a hip issue, but all signs point to a full go for the Nuggets guard. But double-check for any updates. Right now, up top, you have Tyrese Maxey and Murray as your guard options, and it seems like everyone and their mother is playing Murray.
Ever since Nikola Jokic has been out with his injury, Murray’s minutes have jumped to 31 minutes a night with a 33% usage rate. Six of his last eight games have resulted in 50+ fantasy point outings. He now gets one of the friendliest fantasy matchups going. The Wizards have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, while only the Jazz ranks worse defensively. This will be a pace-up spot to add to the reasons to roster Murray, who actually has performed much better on the road.
- DraftKings: $6,800
- FanDuel: N/A
You might see a common trend here that I’m targeting the Jazz and Wizards today. That’s generally solid advice for playing DFS. Now, everyone will probably do it, too, which is why Stephon Castle ends up in the cash lineup option. De’Aaron Fox is perfectly reasonable to slot in here instead, but I figured to go with the cheaper option.
Castle has scored 30+ fantasy points in 23 of his last 26 games. He’s even popped off for a 50+ outing and a handful of 40+ point efforts. Tonight against the Jazz, Castle will get plenty of opportunities in a game with a 237-point total and should play around 31 minutes tonight, making him a solid cash game option.
- DraftKings: $8,500
- FanDuel: $8,500
When I think of Julius Randle, he doesn’t exactly scream consistency, but the Timberwolves power forward has been solid all season. In his 44 games played this year, Randle has scored fewer than 30 fantasy points twice all year. And I was being generous, not including a 29.8 point performance in the second game of the season.
Randle’s usage rate sits firm at 27%, and he has been averaging 35 minutes a night over his last two weeks of play. While he’s likely projected closer to 33 minutes tonight, that is still plenty to get him to his projected 42 fantasy points, which is a solid return on your investment.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $9,000
- FanDuel: $8,900
I feel like Steph Curry often winds up in the GPP category, but he’ll post 48+ points three straight games, then sub-30 in two of his next three matches. It’s hard to say he’s consistent, but the 37-year-old is still capable of putting on his chef hat and cooking. Dallas’ defense has taken a bit of a hit recently. Even as a solid unit, they are still a big pace-up spot to Golden State, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing guards in their last 15 games.
Curry has performed better on the road this year with better shooting and more minutes, so that helps a bit while his rostership isn’t reflective of his ceiling as it sits in the mid-teens right now. I’m not sure if we’ll see another 60+ point effort here or anything crazy, but for his price point and rostership, he makes a solid GPP play.
- DraftKings: $9,300
- FanDuel: $9,400
I’ve given little love to the 228-point total in the Charlotte-Orlando game, but there are a lot of potential nuggets of opportunity here. While Charlotte’s offense has been a top-10 unit this year, its defense sits in the bottom third of the league. The Hornets may bring down the pace here, but it’s not enough to justify Paolo Banchero only being 8% rostered in early projections.
The Magic forward has had six games of 50+ DraftKings points in his last 10 efforts, and tonight can be another one. He’s playing nearly 38 minutes a night in the last two weeks of play with a 27% usage rate to go with it. The possession rate will be limited, but his efficiency numbers are good enough to put him over 50 fantasy points tonight, making him a solid leverage option.
- DraftKings: $9,200
- FanDuel: $9,600
For my bigger swing on a lower-rostered player tonight, I’m going with Joel Embiid. He has a questionable tag next to his name, and playing Houston is not the best-case scenario, so I expect his rostership to take a hit and stay in the single digits.
Still, when Embiid is on the court, he’s capable of a 60-point fantasy effort, and I think he’s being slept on a bit too much. The leverage opportunity is there, and Houston’s defense drops from sixth to 13th when playing on the road. He’s a large-field GPP play exclusively tonight, but a good one.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,500
- FanDuel: $4,700
Across the board, you will likely see Tre Johnson as today’s top value play. Which is also me saying there isn’t much clear value right now before we get an updated injury report. The starting Wizards point guard plays about 30 minutes a night at this point and projects for over 25 fantasy points against Denver.
The Nuggets’ defense not only ranks 24th on the season but takes a step back when they have to leave the Mile High City. It’s not the most trustworthy play right now simply because it’s Washington, and who knows what will happen. However, as of now, he’s one of the best values, given his pricing and usage.
- DraftKings: $4,200
- FanDuel: N/A
Like I said before, you’re going to be seeing a lot of San Antonio Spurs on the list today. And once again, I apologize to those of you who play on FanDuel. Dylan Harper may come off the bench, but he still is an over one fantasy point per minute player who should see the court for about 22-24 minutes tonight. That’s not bad when you simply set that as a baseline.
To go with a pace-up spot against a putrid defense, you can see how easily Harper can 5X his salary. I won’t spend too much time on it, but taking shots and mixing and matching Spurs players in your builds feels like a solid strategy tonight.
- DraftKings: $5,300
- FanDuel: $5,800
I will remind everyone that projections will update throughout the day, and that is going to vastly change where value might arise. But Brandin Podziemski has been on a bit of a tear recently, and his price hasn’t ballooned all too much.
Podziemski has averaged 33 fantasy points a night over his last four games and should continue seeing solid minutes in his starting role. It’s not like his 18% usage rate this season is anything to write home about, but it’s jumped to 24% in the last four games. I’m buying stock as I only expect his price to continue rising.
