The players below are the ones I’m looking at for NFL DFS GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Conference Championships NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
We’ve seen this matchup twice and got two wildly different results. The first game was low scoring with limited upside across the board. Matthew Stafford managed to throw two touchdowns but only 130 yards, and was unproductive from a fantasy perspective.
The players below are the ones I’m looking at for NFL DFS GPP considerations this week. Salaries marked with an * indicate a strong value in pricing difference on FanDuel.
Conference Championships NFL DFS GPP Advice & Picks
Quarterbacks
We’ve seen this matchup twice and got two wildly different results. The first game was low scoring with limited upside across the board. Matthew Stafford managed to throw two touchdowns but only 130 yards, and was unproductive from a fantasy perspective.
In the second matchup, Stafford threw for over 450 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been turnover-free and handled the Seattle defense well. His upside is less about him and more about the Seattle offense limiting turnovers and maintaining a high pace. Stafford is coming off an extremely underwhelming performance, but is primed for a bounce-back game.
Sam Darnold (QB – SEA) vs. LAR | DraftKings: $5,500/FanDuel: $7,400
It will feel objectively awful to roster Sam Darnold, but he is really the perfect contrarian play this week. Both matchups with the Rams have been two of his better yardage performances of the year, throwing 44 and 34 attempts. He’s appropriate for GPPs rather than cash games because the floor is extremely low and the ceiling is solid.
Last week, playing through injury, the Seahawks limited his volume — just 12 completions on 17 attempts — and leaned heavily on the ground game. However, Darnold claims the injury won’t be an issue this week and that he’s prepared to push volume to match the Rams’ pace.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker is seeing a bump in pricing with Zach Charbonnet out, but he’s still very reasonably priced for the upside. His value per salary is great, and he offers the highest ceiling of any running back this week. Seattle should lean heavily on Walker, and he’s been a strong contributor as a receiver in the previous two matchups with the Rams.
Oddly enough, two of the five touchdowns Walker had during the regular season came against the Rams, and he had zero problem with yardage against them. Walker may underperform if the Rams focus on shutting him down and forcing Darnold to throw. However, Walker’s upside is far too high to fade.
RJ Harvey (RB – DEN) vs. NE | DraftKings: $5,900/FanDuel: $6,700*
RJ Harvey was primed for a strong performance in the Divisional Round with an excellent matchup against Buffalo, but was severely limited on the ground with just six carries for 20 yards. The game was a shootout, with the Broncos abandoning the run.
They can’t afford to do that with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback and will have to lean on the ground attack. Harvey can still benefit from receiving work, but we should see an increase in carries this week to maintain a more balanced attack.
Rhamondre Stevenson left the game temporarily in the Divisional Round due to an injury and still managed to outproduce TreVeyon Henderson. As much as we’d love to see Henderson thrive, Stevenson has been far more efficient and a huge contributor in the receiving game.
Denver’s run defense is tough, but not impenetrable. James Cook had over 100 yards on the ground against them last week. If Stidham can’t keep the offense moving, time of possession could be lopsided, and the Patriots could lean on the ground game to wear the Broncos’ defense down.
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been solid this season against the Rams. The only issue is that he never reaches his ceiling in those matchups, but the volume has been extremely consistent, with a minimum of eight receptions and 96 yards in each game.
However, the salary gap between Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua is enough to justify his value. Even if the matchup is a lower-scoring affair like the first game, he’s still an excellent volume play.
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) @ SEA | DraftKings: $9,000/FanDuel: $9,800*
The Puka Nacua chalk didn’t hit in the Divisional Round, but we’ll continue to trot Nacua out in our lineups this week because the ceiling is far too high to fade him. Like Stafford, this is a boom/bust situation. He’ll hit big, or he’ll flop.
Nacua had a floor performance in the first matchup withjust 14 fantasy points. In the second matchup, he had his highest scoring performance of the season. Unfortunately, because of the Bo Nix injury, the gap between Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Nacua is so aggressive that both are key plays this week.
Kayshon Boutte has been the most productive and consistent Patriots receiver in the playoffs thus far, with four receptions for 66 yards during the Wild Card Weekend against the Chargers and three receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown last weekend.
Denver isn’t an ideal matchup, particularly for deep threat receivers. However, Boutte’s pricing makes him a solid value play this week.
Additional Considerations
Note: To pay up for both Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba or all three backs, you’ll need low-end receivers, and pulling from the Broncos with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback is a solid contrarian play. If active, Pat Bryant is the target. If Bryant is out, go with Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Note the odd low-end pricing differences on FanDuel.
Tight Ends
AJ Barner (TE – SEA) vs. LAR | DraftKings: $4,000/FanDuel: $5,200
AJ Barner has been consistently solid against the Rams with 15 and 17 fantasy points in the regular season matchups. He can be inconsistent in general because his volume is more dependent on Darnold than the other pass-catchers.
However, with an expected increase in volume from Darnold this week and a solid track record, Barner offers a solid ceiling and the best floor of any tight end of the slate outside of Hunter Henry.
Additional Considerations
D/ST
New England D/ST @ DEN | DraftKings: $3,500/FanDuel: $5,000
We’re running it back with New England’s defense. They came through with the pick-six last week, and Jarrett Stidham provides the same opportunity. Pricing continues to be somewhat irrelevant in the playoffs, given the dramatic difference in ceiling from the higher-priced defense.
The Broncos’ defense does offer the best value for their pricing this week, and it is tempting to dip down. However, we could see the defense worn down as the game goes on if Stidham can’t push long drives.
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