Last week, I broke down the three most overvalued running backs in early 2026 fantasy football drafts, according to average draft position (ADP).
For every overrated bust, there is an underrated sleeper. Today, I’m looking at the glass half full to find the most undervalued running backs in early Underdog best ball drafts. Let’s get to it.
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Undervalued Fantasy Football Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF) | ADP: RB4
Christian McCaffrey’s red flags are obvious. His injury history is extensive. He’ll be 30 by the time the season starts. Every fantasy manager knows how quickly things can start to go wrong for high-volume running backs around that age.
Things have already started to go wrong for McCaffrey, who was arguably the worst high-volume rusher in the league last season. Among 65 backs with at least 50 regular-season carries, the Comeback Player of the Year ranked:
- 57th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) rush grade
- 42nd in success rate (per SumerSports)
- 46th in yards per attempt
- 40th in expected points added (EPA) per rush
To go with those metrics, McCaffrey was also dead last in total yards versus expected (-166) and fourth-worst in yards per carry versus expected (-0.54), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He isn’t just approaching the wall in terms of rushing efficiency — he’s already hit it. That makes him an undeniably risky pick in the second half of the first round of drafts.
McCaffrey was a risky pick in the second half of the first round of drafts last year. And, even with his high cost, he was arguably the best pick of the 2025 fantasy season. He finished as the RB1 overall in half-PPR, averaging an ungodly 21.5 points per game. Despite the rest of the 49ers’ roster being decimated by injuries, he was insanely consistent, finishing as a weekly top-five running back eight times and outside of the top 20 just once.
The key to McCaffrey’s value is that, even as he regresses as a rusher, he is still the best pass-catching back in the league. His 102 receptions ranked sixth in the entire league at any position, over 25% more than the next-closest back. It’s simply impossible to overstate the fantasy value of a running back seeing 7.6 targets per game, especially in any kind of PPR format. McCaffrey’s production — including RB1 overall finishes in both of his two full healthy seasons with the Niners — makes this clear.
With George Kittle set to miss the start of the season and Jauan Jennings likely out the door, McCaffrey should just keep racking up the targets. His dual-threat role also makes him less likely than he would otherwise be to lose carries. Kyle Shanahan has proven he doesn’t want to sacrifice flexibility by taking McCaffrey off the field, even if he loses some rushing efficiency in the process.
Could this pick backfire spectacularly? Sure. But so could any pick. Especially in best ball, where ceiling outcomes are key, I’m chasing the league-winning upside McCaffrey has repeatedly proven he provides. He should be closer to the top of the first round than the back of it, or at least ahead of Jonathan Taylor.
Kenneth Walker III (RB – FA) | ADP: RB16
Fresh off a Super Bowl win, Kenneth Walker III is in an interesting situation. The 25-year-old former second-rounder is an unrestricted free agent. With the Seahawks reportedly unlikely to use the franchise tag on him, he will be searching for a long-term deal this offseason.
This uncertainty is probably scaring fantasy managers off selecting Walker. But I would argue that the vast majority of outcomes would actually be good for his fantasy stock, causing him to rise from his current RB16 fantasy football ADP.
Like most NFL free agents, Walker is most likely to stay put, re-signing in Seattle. At first glance, this isn’t a great outcome; he was just the RB22 in total half-PPR points and RB29 in points per game in 2025. But that was largely because he was in a 50/50 timeshare with Zach Charbonnet. Seattle’s other young back unfortunately tore his ACL in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. In Charbonnet’s absence, Walker averaged 23.4 half-PPR points on an elite workload throughout the Seahawks’ Super Bowl run.
If he does return to the Seahawks, Walker’s workload probably won’t remain as pristine as it was in the playoffs — Seattle has clearly shown a preference for using multiple backs, and they will likely add a more threatening No. 2 RB than George Holani. But that No. 2 RB isn’t likely to see anywhere near as much work as Charbonnet, especially given how Walker performed in the playoffs. Even once Charbonnet himself returns, Walker will likely remain at worst the 1A for the 2026 season as his backfield-mate works back to full health.
Of course, the other possible outcome is that Walker signs with another team. Normally, leaving the reigning Super Bowl champions isn’t good for a running back. But, given what we just established about the Seahawks’ clear preference for not loading Walker up with touches, this wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing.
Any team signing the reigning Super Bowl MVP will have to pay up, and they’ll plan to use him. Walker’s 2025 efficiency indicates he could explode if given legit No. 1 RB usage. He led qualified backs in PFF rush grade last season and ranked eighth in explosive rate and third in missed tackles forced per attempt. Walker’s reputation as a boom/bust runner is well-earned, but if a team is willing to feed him despite the busts, the booms should turn him into a fantasy stud.
Walker has shown a bit of receiving upside, too. He averaged over four receptions per game last year and ranked ninth among qualified backs in yards per route run. He’s no Christian McCaffrey, but a team bringing him in to be their bell-cow back might choose to lean on him more in that area, further increasing his upside.
Drafting Walker well above his most recent season in terms of production is not a comfortable move, especially when we don’t know which team he will be playing for. But he is an explosive young back coming off a dominant playoff run. It’s hard to imagine a team signing him where we won’t be excited about his landing spot, so I’m happy to draft him now at a discounted price.
David Montgomery (RB – DET) | ADP: RB35
After a few years of massive success, the Lions’ Sonic and Knuckles duo took a step back in 2025. More specifically, Knuckles, aka David Montgomery, was a big loser. Perhaps because of Ben Johnson’s departure, the Lions’ offense regressed from their historic efficiency levels. They also began to lean more heavily on young stud Jahmyr Gibbs. This led to Montgomery seeing by far the worst usage of his career and posting correspondingly uninspiring fantasy stats.
Even with eight rushing touchdowns on his side, Montgomery finished 2025 as just the RB27 in half-PPR points. In terms of points per game, he was the RB33. Clearly, Montgomery’s time turning an RB1A role into RB2 fantasy production is over.
However, the market is reflecting this — no one is being asked to pay RB2 prices for Montgomery in 2026. Even if he remains in his new limited role in Detroit, his RB35 ADP isn’t too bad. At worst, Montgomery will be a genuinely elite handcuff (he is a must-start RB1 if Gibbs ever misses time) with the ability to provide a usable best ball week or two thanks to touchdown upside. Is that profile really that different than the likes of Blake Corum (RB31) or Kyle Monangai (RB28)?
Montgomery also has a real chance of upgrading his situation. Lions general manager Brad Holmes mentioned earlier this offseason that they will consider trading him to a “situation where his skill set can be utilized.” If a deal doesn’t materialize, they might even release the veteran to allow him to pursue a larger role elsewhere.
Montgomery still has the juice to arguably deserve a lead job in the NFL. He was PFF’s 20th-highest graded ball-carrier in the 2025 regular season. He ranked 22nd in success rate, 21st in EPA per play and 11th in rush yards over expected per attempt. He outperformed Gibbs in each of those last three metrics, although that may say more about the fallibility of running back efficiency metrics than anything else. Montgomery was solid in the passing game, too, with PFF grading him as the ninth-best receiver and 16th-best pass-blocker among qualified backs.
If he gets an opportunity, whether thanks to injury or a change of scenery, Montgomery should be ready to make the most of it. That’s a lot more than can be said for most backs available outside of the top 100 picks in ADP. Even though he trended in the wrong direction in 2025, I don’t think we’ve seen the last of him as a relevant fantasy option, making him an undervalued pick late in early best ball drafts.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
