Disclaimer: This post is not meant to discredit any particular fantasy baseball projection system, nor projection systems as a whole. They provide a valuable tool. I use them, and you should too. It is always nice to see a median for player production across the Majors.
However, projections are not perfect, and are not meant to be. The baseline is occasionally too bearish or bullish due to the lack of information. Occasionally, certain rates from players’ careers are heavily factored and not weighted towards recent trends or changes in a profile.
Projections are also notoriously underweight on rookies due to the lack of data, as many younger players struggle in their early careers. Nevertheless, it is appropriate to lean toward optimism in some cases when a rookie blows past the Minors, shows early positive returns and/or has special skills.
We will sift through several younger players and some veterans in this piece to find value where the projections don’t.
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Undervalued Fantasy Baseball Players
Jac Caglianone (OF – KC)
- Steamer: 418 PA, 18 HR, 51 runs, 57 RBI, 2 SB, .256 AVG
- ATC: 502 PA, 19 HR, 59 runs, 64 RBI, 3 SB, .238 AVG
- The Bat: 502 PA, 15 HR, 55 runs, 58 RBI, 3 SB, .227 AVG
Jac Caglianone did not have a good rookie year. A .157 batting average, seven home runs, 19 runs, 18 RBI and one stolen base across 232 plate appearances is horrendous. Fortunately, his plate discipline was good (7.8% walk rate, 22.4% strikeout rate), and his expected stats were well above his actual performance. Caglianone held a .318 xwOBA and .239 wOBA; a significant differential between the two stats.
Caglianone not only has the benefit of regression but also a more favorable home park in 2026. The Royals are moving in their outfield wall to allow more home runs. Also, despite ranking in the bottom three in home run factor, Kauffman Stadium is already rated a top-10 stadium for hitters.
With an offense filled with talented hitters like Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia, a young, potential star like Caglianone will not have to bear the burden of being his team’s entire offense. Also, he is slotted to bat fifth on Opening Day. If Caglianone performs up to expectations, he could climb to an even more favorable slot.
Regardless of last season’s outcome, we have reasons for optimism on the former sixth overall pick. Caglianone demolished the Minors in 2025 as a 22-year-old in Double-A and Triple-A. Performance at that age, at those two levels, is one of the best indicators for future success, especially when you factor in Caglianone’s pedigree.
Agustin Ramirez (C – MIA)
- Steamer: 416 PA, 16 HR, 50 runs, 56 RBI, 12 SB, .250 AVG
- ATC: 500 PA, 18 HR, 60 runs, 62 RBI, 12 SB, .244 AVG
- The Bat: 500 PA, 17 HR, 58 runs, 62 RBI, 10 SB, .247 AVG
Agustin Ramirez had a fantastic rookie season after a late-April call-up — 21 home runs, 72 runs, 66 RBI and 16 stolen bases in 585 plate appearances is special for the catcher position, regardless of his .231 batting average. Nevertheless, there is optimism for an average bump via batting average on balls in play (BABIP) regression, and that is reflected in the projections.
What is not reflected in the projections is any tangible improvement for the second-year catcher. It is understandable to factor in sophomore slumps when a player hits over their head, but Ramirez underperformed his peripherals by a decent margin:
- Batting Average: .231 | Expected Batting Average: .259
- Slugging Rate: .413 | Expected Slugging Rate: .457
Most projections have his home run total sitting under 20, with his projected plate appearances around 500 for the season. Catchers tend not to record over 600 plate appearances. However, Ramirez is not a typical catcher. He was the designated hitter in Miami for 63 of his 136 games. Unless the Marlins make a trade for an everyday designated hitter or sign free agent Marcell Ozuna, the expectation for Ramirez should be every day playing time, whether at catcher or designated hitter.
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B – KC)
- Steamer: 563 PA, 24 HR, 72 runs, 81 RBI, 1 SB, .266 AVG
- ATC: 630 PA, 26 HR, 73 runs, 92 RBI, 1 SB, .259 AVG
- The Bat: 630 PA, 27 HR, 76 runs, 92 RBI, 1 SB, .263 AVG
Similar to Jac Caglianone, Vinnie Pasquantino will benefit from playing in a more hitter-friendly home stadium in 2026. The improvement is not similar to what the Rays and Athletics experienced in 2025 by playing in new home stadiums, but it should help the Royals’ power hitters a lot.
Pasquantino finally broke out in 2025 after a shoulder injury cut his 2023 short, and the subsequent surgery hindered his 2024. He produced 32 home runs, 72 runs, 113 RBI, one stolen base and a .264 batting average in 682 plate appearances. Projection systems are fair to limit his plate appearances, given that playing 160 games is a tall task. However, Pasquantino’s significant drop in counting stats is alarming.
The Royals’ offense will not only improve by bringing in their outfield walls, but also thanks to the emergence of the aforementioned Caglianone and potential from rookie Carter Jensen. This offense could be one of the league’s best in 2026, and while “potential” is not something to overweigh in projections, many of Pasquantino’s volume stats feel discounted, even with the drop in plate appearances.
Connelly Early (SP – BOS)
- Steamer: 27 games, 5 starts, 49 IP, 51 Ks, 3.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
- ATC: 25 games, 7 starts, 58 IP, 60 Ks, 3.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
- The Bat: 25 games, 7 starts, 58 IP, 62 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Connelly Early has performed at every level of the Minors and earned his call-up in 2025. His K-BB rate never fell below a quality 20% at any level, and his groundball rate never dropped below 49.7%. His 4.50 ERA in Double-A in 2024 looks gaudy, but his peripherals were below 3.00, and this was in a 36-inning sample.
Early came up for a “cup of coffee” last season and delivered. He pitched 19.1 innings through four starts and posted a 2.33 ERA, backed by a 2.35 xFIP, 2.36 xERA and 2.34 SIERA. The competition was not mediocre either. He faced the Rays, Tigers and Athletics (twice, with his best start in Sacramento’s bandbox stadium).
While Boston’s offseason has featured multiple transactions for starting pitching, they will be hard-pressed not to find a place for Early. There have been murmurs of utilizing a six-man rotation, and even if they stick with five, their starters are not iron men.
Sonny Gray has pitched several innings throughout the past three seasons, but his elbow has caused trouble. Ranger Suarez has not completed more than 27 starts since 2022. Johan Oviedo missed all of 2024 due to Tommy John and parts of 2025 due to a lat injury. Also, there is the factor of a starter like Brayan Bello getting moved elsewhere or to the bullpen if his regression from overperformance in 2025 hits.
Starting in the Minors for Opening Day does not beget a season with 25 starts (or more) for Early. Injuries happen all the time, especially to pitchers. Early has many outs to a rotation slot in 2025, and these current projections do not account for that.
Jhoan Duran (RP – PHI)
- Steamer: 70 games. 70 IP, 29 saves
- ATC: 66 games, 68 IP, 33 saves,
- The Bat: 66 games, 69 IP, 33 saves
If you were strictly going off of Jhoan Duran’s recent seasons, these projections are extremely reasonable. He has averaged 27.3 saves, making each projection a jump up essentially. However, Duran’s situation changed in 2025. He was traded from the Twins to the Phillies midseason and was no longer just a primary closer; he was solely a closer.
With the Twins, Duran earned 16 saves in 49 games. With the Phillies, Duran earned 16 saves in 23 games. The Twins valued Duran’s ability as a fireman and felt comfortable with the rotation of relievers in the ninth. Meanwhile, Philadelphia struggled to find a consistent ninth-inning option between Jordan Romano, Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm. They were desperate for a ninth-inning closer, leading to their trade for Duran.
Between 96 wins, the Phillies accrued 47 saves from their reliever rotation in 2025. With the roster geared up for another run in the National League East, they should win plenty of games and require several outings from their closer. Duran is currently projected for the third-most saves by most projection systems, but if he pitches as many games/innings as projected to, his save total should be closer to a league-leading 40.
Bonus: One Player Projections Love
Munetaka Murakami (1B – CWS)
- Steamer: 557 PA, 30 HR, 69 runs, 74 RBI, 9 SB, .230 AVG
- ATC: 548 PA, 28 HR, 69 runs, 75 RBI, 8 SB, .217 AVG
- The Bat: 548 PA, 31 HR, 77 runs, 77 RBI, 10 SB, .206 AVG
Had Munetaka Murakami been posted for Major League Baseball after his 2022 season, teams would have lined up with fistfuls of dollars in their hand to sign the Japanese power hitter. Unfortunately, his past three seasons have given us a better glimpse at the risks involved in employing Murakami.
Offseason speculation ranged from nearly any high-profile and/or competitive team, like the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays, desiring Murakami. After the fact, we can assert that the interest was low, given that he ended up on the rebuilding White Sox after nearly passing his posting deadline.
Murakami’s strikeout rates since 2023 are not egregious for Japan or the United States:
- 2023: 28.1% Strikeout Rate
- 2024: 29.5% Strikeout Rate
- 2025: 28.6% Strikeout Rate
Japan features the second-most competitive major baseball league in the world. The Nippigon Professional Baseball Organization (NPB) is well-renowned for its ability to manufacture young stars. It also provides an environment to revitalize MLB players whose careers may have gone astray.
Nevertheless, when a star in Japan makes the jump stateside, the transition could be harsh. Rate stats, like strikeouts, can be misleading. A 28% or 29% strikeout rate in Japan could jump to 35% or even 40% in the United States.
Murakami has noted issues with velocity. He experiences a major dip in performance against pitchers who throw above 95 mils per hour (MPH). Given recent MLB trends, more and more pitchers are elevating their velocity. Given that Murakami is entering the Majors at 26 years old, he has a much narrower development curve.
Murakami does not have as much room to grow, outside of generally trying to adapt. Some may claim Shohei Ohtani‘s strikeouts did not increase after entering the league from Japan, but they fail to grasp that he is Shohei Ohtani, and also entered the MLB at 23, not 26.
Murakami’s baselines within projections sit closer to his high-end outcome rather than the median. This could very easily be a hitter who does not crack a .200 batting average.
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