Fantasy Baseball Busts to Avoid (2026)

Not every “bust” call means a player is bad. Sometimes it simply means the price is wrong. That was the tone of the FantasyPros Ultimate First Base Guide when the conversation turned to busts at the position. The hosts weren’t predicting collapse. They were identifying players whose current draft cost assumes best-case outcomes that may not be repeatable.

Two names stood out in that discussion, both for different reasons: Josh Naylor and Bryce Harper. Each carries real talent, but both come with red flags that make them risky investments at their 2026 ADP.

Fantasy Baseball Busts: Players to Avoid

Here are two first basemen our analysts are avoiding in fantasy baseball drafts.

Josh Naylor (1B – SEA)

Naylor’s rise in the first base ranks has been swift, and that’s part of the problem. He is being drafted inside the top tier of the position, often ahead of more stable bats like Freddie Freeman and Vinnie Pasquantino. The justification is clear. He provides a blend of batting average, power, and speed that is rare at first base.

The concern is that much of his value hinges on one category that may not be sticky: stolen bases.

Naylor’s speed output last season dramatically boosted his fantasy profile, but the podcast raised a key question. Is that repeatable, or was it a perfect storm of opportunity and league environment? Stolen bases are notoriously volatile year over year, especially from players whose fantasy value is not built on elite speed.

If those steals regress, the profile looks very different. You’re left with a hitter who projects closer to the low-20s in home runs rather than the upper-20s, and whose quality of contact metrics did not take a major step forward. His barrel rate dipped, his hard-hit gains were modest, and there was no clear increase in fly-ball damage that suggests a power breakout is coming.

Context adds another layer of risk. Seattle remains one of the more challenging hitting environments in baseball, particularly for consistent power production. While Naylor did show flashes after the move, the idea that his home run output meaningfully jumps in that park is far from guaranteed.

None of this means Naylor will be bad. It means that drafting him near the top of the first base pool assumes the stolen bases stick and the power ticks up. If either of those fails, he becomes a player you overpaid for relative to safer options going later.

Bryce Harper (1B – PHI)

Harper’s bust case is quieter, but just as important.

This is not about decline in talent. Harper is still an excellent hitter. The issue is that his fantasy production has slowly shifted away from the elite category spikes that once justified his premium cost.

The podcast highlighted a sobering stat. Harper hasn’t driven in 100 runs since 2019. He’s crossed 100 runs scored just once in that same span. Those are the kinds of counting stats fantasy managers expect when drafting a first baseman in the top 40 to 50 picks.

Instead, Harper has settled into a profile that is very good but increasingly ordinary for his draft slot. The home runs are solid, usually in the high-20s to low-30s range, but not dominant. The batting average helps, but not enough to offset middling RBI totals. And while he has chipped in some stolen bases, that part of his game is almost certainly trending down as he moves deeper into his 30s.

Age doesn’t mean collapse, but it does mean fewer paths to profit. Harper no longer offers a realistic five-category ceiling, and the margin for error tightens when you’re drafting him as a cornerstone bat.

Meanwhile, the first base pool is full of alternatives who offer similar power and better run production at a cheaper cost. Matt Olson, Rafael Devers, and even Freddie Freeman can match or exceed Harper’s likely output while being drafted later.

That’s the definition of a bust risk. Not failure, but inefficiency.

How to Handle These Players on Draft Day

Both Naylor and Harper are players you can draft and still win your league. The problem is where they’re being drafted.

With Naylor, you’re betting on speed sustainability and contextual success in Seattle. With Harper, you’re paying for a name and hoping for a return to elite counting stats that haven’t been there consistently in years.

If either slips past their typical ADP, the risk profile changes. At cost, however, the podcast’s stance was clear. These are players you let someone else take unless the room gives you a discount.

Fantasy Baseball Takeaways

Josh Naylor‘s fantasy value is heavily dependent on stolen bases that may not repeat.
Seattle’s hitting environment limits his margin for error as a power bat.
Bryce Harper remains a strong real-life hitter but no longer provides elite fantasy spikes.
Harper’s run and RBI totals haven’t matched his draft cost in several seasons.
Neither player is a must-avoid, but both are risky at current ADP.
At first base in 2026, price discipline matters more than name value.

In a year where first base is deep with alternatives, avoiding overpayment may be just as important as finding upside.