Starting pitching is always where fantasy baseball drafts get uncomfortable. In 2026, it’s even more layered. You have true aces at the top, a wide tier of volatile upside arms, and then a fascinating group of post-hype breakouts and rookie power arms that can swing leagues.
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2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
Based on the FantasyPros Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Guide, here’s how to approach the top 45 starters, who to prioritize, and where to tread carefully.
The Top Tier: Ace Skills, Manage the Risk
Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA) vs. Bryan Woo (SP – SEA)
Gilbert vs. Woo is the cleanest internal debate inside the top 10.
Gilbert offers:
- 30%+ strikeout upside
- Elite splitter usage
- Consistent workload when healthy
Woo brings:
- Excellent command
- A major K jump last year
- Frontline efficiency when on
The tiebreaker for many is durability. Both have minor injury flags, but Gilbert’s track record as a rotation anchor pushes him slightly ahead. If you want strikeouts with a stable role, Gilbert is the preferred investment.
Brown looks like a pitcher who hasn’t peaked yet.
He reshaped his arsenal around heavy fastball usage and added a two-seamer. Even when his strikeout-minus-walk rate dipped late in 2025, the ERA held firm.
The key takeaway: Brown still has another adjustment in his pocket. His breaking balls grade well by pitch models. If hitters start sitting fastball, he has room to counter.
He’s one of the safest high-end arms with upside in the SP7-SP10 range.
Webb is the “steady yeti” of fantasy rotations.
- Three straight 200+ inning seasons
- Strikeout bump via increased sweeper usage
- Stable ratios year after year
He may not have Paul Skenes-level ceiling, but he provides category insulation. If you start hitter-heavy early, Webb is an ideal SP1 to stabilize your staff.
Ragans is a classic YOLO pick.
Elite strikeout rate. Electric stuff. Legitimate SP1 per-inning production. But you’re not drafting him for 190 innings.
He pairs perfectly with someone like Webb. High-risk upside plus volume stability is a sharp roster construction play.
SP 16-30: Where Drafts Get Tricky
Cease’s move to Toronto is intriguing.
He remains a two-pitch dominant arm (fastball/slider), but the Blue Jays have emphasized splitter development organizationally. If he adds a usable third pitch, it could stabilize his volatility.
The risk remains command-driven inconsistency. The ceiling remains top-12.
Draft with eyes open.
Luzardo is a volatile profile.
When he’s 97 mph, he’s dominant. When the velocity dips below 96, things unravel quickly. His fastball shape doesn’t give him margin for error.
Add in durability concerns, and he becomes a risky investment at cost. There are safer arms in this range.
The issue is simple: shoulder health.
Snell is elite when active. But he’s already dealing with shoulder concerns and the Dodgers have zero incentive to push him early.
Six-man rotation. October focus. Deep pitching depth.
You’re drafting talent. But you’re also drafting workload risk.
Perez might be this year’s Cristopher Sanchez leap candidate.
- Upper-90s fastball
- 90 mph changeup
- Full four-pitch mix
- Elite pitch-model grades
The only hiccup last year was home run variance. If that stabilizes, he has top-10 SP potential.
He’s one of the biggest breakout arms in the top 30.
McLean’s pitch model profile is absurd.
Every pitch graded above average. A 117 Stuff+ profile. A hammer curve with elite whiff rates.
He showed poise as a rookie and carries strikeout upside with improving command.
There’s normal young pitcher risk here. But the ceiling absolutely justifies his SP2/SP3 draft range.
SP 31-45: Upside vs. Safety
This is where roster construction matters most.
Yesavage had a meteoric rise, but there’s concern about how hitters adjust after seeing his unique release and pitch mix multiple times.
He may need a secondary adjustment year before fully settling in.
King’s stuff still grades well, but workload remains the key question.
In shallow leagues with IL spots, he’s a solid target. In draft-and-hold formats, innings uncertainty pushes him down.
Format matters here more than talent.
Burns might be the most exciting upside play in this range.
- 99 mph average fastball
- 90+ mph slider
- Improving changeup
- Strikeout monster profile
He has legitimate top-15 SP upside. If you’re taking risks in this tier, Burns is one worth betting on.
Sheehan brings:
- Elite fastball
- Plus changeup
- High strikeout ceiling
The Dodgers context actually helps him. With older arms around him, he could quietly log meaningful innings while others rotate in and out.
Strong upside target in the 30s.
Sleepers, Busts & Must-Haves
Sleeper: Bubba Chandler (SP – PIT)
Chandler has electric fastball-slider traits and showed growth in command late.
He’s cheaper than other rookie arms but carries similar upside. If he earns consistent innings, he can outproduce his rank.
Sleeper: Cam Schlittler (SP – NYY)
Four-pitch mix. Power arsenal. Yankees development pipeline.
There’s velocity fluctuation to monitor, but the tools are legitimate.
Bust: Jacob Misiorowski (SP – MIL)
Elite velocity. Massive upside.
But double-digit walk rate risk and role volatility create downside at cost. If you’re drafting him, understand the floor is not stable.
Bust: Nick Pivetta (SP – SD)
Last year likely represented peak value.
- .235 BABIP
- Elevated strand rate
- Signs of ERA regression
He’s serviceable. But don’t pay for the career year.
Must-Have: Ryan Pepiot (SP – TB)
Pepiot quietly gave you a top-40 SP season in a volatile ballpark.
Now with more stability and strong underlying pitch data, he offers:
- Safe floor at cost
- Incremental strikeout upside
- Repeatable pitch traits
He’s one of the better value SP3 types on the board.
Must-Have: Chase Burns (SP, RP – CIN)
Regardless of build, Burns is the upside swing to prioritize.
The stuff is real. The strikeout potential is league-altering. And the cost hasn’t caught up to the ceiling yet.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- Logan Webb is the ideal volume anchor if you start hitter-heavy.
- Hunter Brown combines safety with growth potential inside the top 10.
- Eury Perez and Nolan McLean are breakout candidates with top-10 ceilings.
- Be cautious with shoulder-risk arms like Blake Snell at cost.
- Pair high-risk strikeout arms like Cole Ragans with durable innings eaters.
- In shallow leagues, Michael King is viable. In draft-and-hold, tread lightly.
- Ryan Pepiot offers one of the best floor-plus-upside values in the 30s.
- Chase Burns is the high-impact upside target in the SP30-SP40 range.
The biggest edge in 2026 drafts won’t come from nailing the SP1 overall. It’ll come from structuring your staff properly.
Balance your YOLO picks with volume. Draft for ceiling in the middle rounds. And understand your format before you chase upside.
That’s how you win pitching this year.
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