Josh Shepardson | Fri, Feb 27th 2026, 7:20am EST

10 Risers & Fallers (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

It’s time to take another look at risers and fallers in the early rounds of fantasy baseball drafts. The following five risers and five fallers each have an average draft position (ADP) in the top 90 picks.

Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers

Risers

Yordan Alvarez (OF, DH – HOU)

ADP on 2/13: 33.2 | ADP on 2/25: 30.0

I wrote about Yordan Alvarez as a must-have fantasy baseball draft pick to target earlier this month. I agree with his 3.2-pick rise since February 13th. Alvarez’s 2025 was limited to only 199 plate appearances with a fracture in his right hand and an ankle sprain.

The left-handed hitter also had an underwhelming .273 batting average, .430 slugging rate and six homers last season. Still, Alvarez cleared 550 plate appearances in three of the previous four years before his injury-shortened 2025 showing, and he had 496 plate appearances in the outlier campaign.

Alvarez was one of the best hitters during that stretch, and his mediocre batting average and uninspiring slugging rate last year weren’t supported by his expected stats. According to FanGraphs, Alvarez had a .284 expected batting average (xBA) and .549 expected slugging rate (xSLG). Alvarez can lay the groundwork for fantasy teams in runs, RBI, home runs and batting average. He’s an excellent pick at or around his ADP.

Matt Olson (1B – ATL)

ADP on 2/13: 41.4 | ADP on 2/25: 36.6

Matt Olson is a repeat visitor to the risers and fallers piece. However, he’s flipped from a faller to a riser. Back then, Olson was a faller, with an ADP of 36.2 on January 28th that dipped to 41.4. He’s back to where he was at the end of January.

Olson’s previous ADP was a tick steep for my taste, and it’s earlier now. From 2022 through 2024, Olson’s first three seasons with the Braves, he hit 117 homers with 291 runs, 340 RBI, one stolen base, an 11.9% walk rate, a 24.1% strikeout rate, a .289 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), a.257 batting average, a 249 xBA, a .349 on-base percentage (OBP), a .513 slugging rate and a .503 xSLG.

Olson recorded the following stats in a career-high 724 plate appearances last season:

98 runs
29 home runs
95 RBI
1 stolen base
12.6% walk rate
24.3% strikeout rate
.333 BABIP (career high)
.272 batting average
.249 xBA
.366 OBP
.484 SLG
.492 xSLG

Olson needed career highs in plate appearances and BABIP to finish as the 34th-ranked hitter in our value-based-ranking metric (VBR) in 2025. Yet, Olson is the 30th-ranked hitter in ADP this year. Olson’s batting average will likely dip 20 to 25 points this year, and getting on base less frequently should also cut into his runs. He’s overpriced.

Austin Riley (3B – ATL)

ADP on 2/13: 66.6 | ADP on 2/25: 63.2

Austin Riley was a fantasy force from 2021 through 2023. Unfortunately, his production has dipped in back-to-back seasons, with fewer than 500 plate appearances and 20 homers in both campaigns. The following table shows Riley’s numbers from 2021 through 2023 and from 2024 through 2025:

Riley’s strikeout rate has risen as his walk rate has fallen in the past two seasons. The third baseman’s .258 batting average was mostly legitimate, and he should clear 20 homers this year with better health.

Nevertheless, after hitting one home run per 19.2 plate appearances from 2021 through 2023, Riley hit just one home run per 26.2 plate appearances from 2024 through 2025. Riley’s home run pace in the previous two seasons would produce 24.8 homers in 650 plate appearances this year.

Riley won’t turn 29 until April 2nd. Maybe he can recapture his magic from before 2024. Gamers should recalibrate expectations for Atlanta’s third baseman, though.

Framber Valdez (SP – DET)

ADP on 2/13: 84.6 | ADP on 2/25: 79.6

Framber Valdez was a workhorse for the Astros, and he’ll be a critical piece of Detroit’s rotation. Since 2022, Valdez has ripped off 201.1, 198, 176.1 and 192 innings.

The veteran lefty’s 3.66 ERA in 2025 was his highest since 2019. It was still a rock-solid mark, supported by his 3.77 xERA, 3.34 xFIP and 3.66 SIERA. Valdez’s 1.24 WHIP in 2025 was also his worst mark since logging a 1.25 WHIP in 2021. Even with some chinks in the armor for Valdez last year, he had a 58.6% groundball rate, 23.3% strikeout rate, 28.5 CSW%, 108 stuff+, 99 location+ and 109 pitching+.

Valdez was the 27th-ranked pitcher in VBR last season, and he’s the 27th-ranked pitcher in ADP. Valdez is a superb SP3 for gamers who pluck multiple starting pitchers in the first seven rounds of 12-team mixed leagues and a stellar SP2 for others who lean into hitting or mix in an elite reliever early in drafts.

Kyle Bradish (SP – BAL)

ADP on 2/13: 86.6 | ADP on 2/25: 78.8

Kyle Bradish has pitched like an ace when he’s been healthy. The 29-year-old righty’s 2024 season was cut short by a UCL injury that required Tommy John surgery. His Tommy John surgery included an internal brace.

Bradish made his 2025 season debut on August 26th. He was lights out in six starts spanning 32 innings last season, ripping off the following stats:

1 win
3 quality starts
2.53 ERA
3.08 xERA
2.67 xFIP
2.63 SIERA
1.03 WHIP
7.9% walk rate
37.3% strikeout rate
14.6 SwStr%
33.2 CSW%
95 stuff+
111 location+
105 pitching+

Bradish doesn’t have a specific innings limit in 2026. The 29-year-old righty pitched only 54 innings, including the minors, in 2025, though. He expects to have some innings limit this year.

Bradish is a supremely talented pitcher and will help fantasy squads when he toes the slab. The Zeile consensus projections peg Bradish for 138.2 innings this season. There were 82 pitchers who amassed more than 138.2 innings in 2025.

Gamers will need to keep Bradish’s likely innings limit in mind when drafting him, but the quality of his work makes him a defensible pick at his ADP. Those who are comfortable and adept streamers can feel even more comfortable picking Bradish.

Fantasy Baseball Fallers

Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI)

ADP on 2/13: 6.6 | ADP on 2/25: 12.6

The good news for Corbin Carroll is that he’s on the mend and could be ready for or shortly after Opening Day.

Carroll is recovering from surgery to remove the hamate bone in his hand. Traditionally, a loss of power has been expected in the immediate aftermath of surgery to remove the hamate bone. Lately, the stats, albeit in a minuscule sample, haven’t supported the power outage.

Of course, recovery from surgery isn’t the same for everyone. As Anthony Castrovince noted in an article about hamate bone injuries, a 2020 study on the outcomes of surgery in the American Journal of Sports Medicine included 261 professional baseball players, and 81% of them returned at the same or a higher level. Mike Trout is a recent example of an outlier who didn’t make a seamless transition back to the diamond.

Carroll was the 12th-ranked hitter in VBR in 2025, and he’s the 10th-ranked hitter by ADP, despite uncertainty about his availability for Opening Day. Carroll will have rust to shake off when he returns after missing all of spring training. He could also be in the minority of players who don’t make a seamless return from hamate bone surgery.

The cost is still too expensive for Carroll. The middle to the end of the second round is a more appropriate range for Carroll. The talent going around him is too good to pass up for an already-hurt player.

Francisco Lindor (SS – NYM)

ADP on 2/13: 16.2 | ADP on 2/25: 20.4

Francisco Lindor is in a similar boat to Corbin Carroll. New York’s do-it-all shortstop also had surgery to remove his hamate bone. Like Carroll, Lindor’s return will likely be around Opening Day.

Lindor was the 10th-ranked hitter in VBR last season, and he’s the 18th-ranked hitter in ADP. The gap is more palatable than Carroll, as Lindor has some wiggle room to have a sluggish start and break even or slightly outproduce his ADP. Still, Lindor carries the same risk of a slow start or complications from the surgery that Carroll has, and I’d need a more significant discount to roll the dice on Lindor.

I believe veteran fantasy scribe Scott Pianowski is the first person I saw succinctly caution gamers to avoid drafting injuries since they’ll find you anyway. In the middle and later rounds of drafts, it’s much easier to stomach taking a chance on injured players. The second round is a completely different story.

Hunter Brown (SP – HOU)

ADP on 2/13: 32.6 | ADP on 2/25: 35.2

Hunter Brown had a brilliant 2025 season, finishing as the 10th-ranked pitcher by our VBR metric. He was sharp in 2024 and kicked it up a notch in 2025, improving both his surface stats and underlying data. Brown’s 2.43 ERA in 2025 outkicked his 3.15 xERA, 3.19 xFIP and 3.39 SIERA. Still, the top pitchers often need a little luck and to outperform their ERA estimators to finish as the best fantasy options.

Brown was also a workhorse, logging 185.1 innings. He was 13th in innings last season. Among the 53 pitchers who tallied at least 160 innings in 2025, Brown ranked:

Third in ERA (2.43)
Seventh in xERA (3.15)
Eighth in xFIP (3.19)
11th in SIERA (3.39),
Tied for seventh in WHIP (1.03)
Seventh in strikeout rate (28.3%)
Tied for 11th in stuff+ (107)

Brown also had a 28.3 CSW%, 95 location+ and 103 pitching+. He is an outstanding anchor for fantasy baseball rotations. He was a stellar pick at his previous ADP and an even more appealing one at his new one.

Roman Anthony (OF – BOS)

ADP on 2/13: 50.2 | ADP on 2/25: 53.8

Roman Anthony finished his work in the minors last year in spectacular fashion, lighting up Triple-A before acquitting himself well in the Majors. In 303 plate appearances and 71 games for the Red Sox last year, Anthony had the following stats:

48 runs
8 home runs
32 RBI
4 stolen bases
13.2% walk rate
27.7% strikeout rate
.292 batting average
.258 xBA
.396 OBP
.463 slugging rate
.484 xSLG

Anthony had only a 20.3% strikeout rate in 434 career plate appearances in Triple-A. He also had a 10.7% SwStr% for the Red Sox last year, lower than the 2025 league average of 11% SwStr%. Anthony should drastically improve his strikeout rate this year, which can help him offset some batting average regression to his xBA, even if his batted-ball quality doesn’t improve.

In addition, according to Baseball Savant, Anthony was the second-most unluckiest hitter for home runs, with 12 expected homers compared to eight actual dingers, a -4.0 gap, trailing only Salvador Perez‘s -4.1 gap.

Anthony will have an opportunity to maximize his plate appearances and counting stats in 2026 since manager Alex Cora intends to keep him in the leadoff spot. Anthony’s Zeile consensus projections aren’t befitting a player worth his previous or current ADP.

Projections are largely a median expectation for a player, and Anthony has the tools and potential to leave his projections in the dust. Gamers shouldn’t go overboard chasing players who must exceed their projections to be a value at their ADP, but Anthony is a worthwhile gamble, especially for gamers who will offset picking Anthony with more surefire selections.

Shea Langeliers (C – ATH)

ADP on 2/13: 61.9 | ADP on 2/25: 69.0

Shea Langeliers entered the 2025 season as the prototypical power-over-average catcher. He crushed 22 homers with a .205 batting average in 490 plate appearances in 2023 and 29 home runs with a .224 batting average in 534 plate appearances in 2024.

Langeliers made his MLB debut in 2022, and he had a 29% strikeout rate in his first 1,177 plate appearances in The Show. He also had a 15.2% SwStr% during that span. Langeliers made measurable strides to become more than a slugger with a low batting average in 2025.

In 523 plate appearances last season, Langeliers recorded the following stats:

73 runs
31 home runs
72 RBI
7 stolen bases
6.9% walk rate
19.7% strikeout rate
.277 batting average
.251 xBA
.325 OBP
.536 slugging rate
.461 xSLG
11.9% SwStr%

Langeliers enjoyed some good fortune on his batted balls, but even his .251 xBA was rock-solid for a power-hitting catcher. Among players who primarily played catcher last year, Langeliers was tied for second in homers.

Hunter Goodman was the only other player whose primary position was catcher who hit at least 30 homers with a batting average over .250. Only one other primary catcher cleared 25 homers with a batting average above .250, and just four reached at least 20 homers and cleared a .250 batting average.

Langeliers’ improved swinging-strike rate bodes well for him retaining his reduced strikeout rate and some of his gains in batting average. He’ll also benefit from the A’s playing all but six home games in 2026 at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.

Langeliers was the 50th-ranked hitter by VBR last year, and he’s the 56th-ranked hitter by ADP. His previous ADP was probably a smidge too early, but his new one is appropriate.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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