If the top 40 starting pitchers are about building your foundation, SP45 through SP100 is where fantasy baseball leagues are actually won.
This is where you decide:
- Are you protecting ratios or chasing strikeouts?
- Do you need innings, or upside?
- Can your format absorb injury risk?
- 2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator
2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice
Part two of the Fantasy Baseball Ultimate SP Draft Guide focused heavily on roster construction. Once you get past your SP2 or SP3, you’re not just drafting talent. You’re drafting outcomes. Here’s how to attack the middle and late pitching tiers in 2026.
SP45-60: Stable Skills vs. Calculated Upside
This range is full of pitchers who won’t headline your staff, but can quietly shape your season.
Rasmussen is the classic “skills over workload” debate.
The Rays always optimize their pitchers, and Rasmussen’s command and swing-and-miss ability are strong. The question is innings. In roto, 130-150 strong innings still matter. In head-to-head, durability concerns carry more weight.
If he’s your SP4, the risk is manageable. If he’s your SP2, you’re exposed.
Cade Horton (SP – CHC) vs. Edward Cabrera (SP – CHC)
This is a clean philosophical split.
Horton represents projection stability. Cleaner delivery. Starter profile. Clear development path.
Cabrera is the volatility play. Electric stuff. Higher walk risk. Bigger single-game ceiling.
If your rotation already has risk, Horton is the safer complement. If you need impact, Cabrera is the swing.
Baz fits the “post-hype with pedigree” mold.
The stuff still flashes frontline potential, but you’re drafting for growth, not certainty. Baltimore context helps with win equity, but this is still a skills-over-sample bet.
He’s a strong SP4 if you’ve already anchored your rotation with safer volume.
SP61-75: Name Value vs. True Value
This tier is tricky because recognizable names can mask real risk.
Gallen sliding into this range forces a tough question: are you drafting the past reputation or the current projection?
At the right price, Gallen becomes a value insulation pick. But if you’re expecting vintage SP1 performance, you’re likely overpaying.
This is where you draft him as a stabilizer, not a savior.
McClanahan is the ultimate upside stash.
If healthy, he’s a top-15 arm. The problem is certainty. Role, workload, timeline — all fluid.
In leagues with IL spots and active waivers, this is exactly where you want to buy. In draft-and-hold formats, the calculus changes completely.
He’s high-variance. But league-winning upside lives here.
Miller quietly belongs in the “bankable mid-rotation” conversation.
Seattle continues to maximize fastball-heavy arms, and Miller’s efficiency keeps him in games. He’s not the flashiest name, but as an SP4/SP5, he provides strong ratio stability with 170-inning potential.
Mize is a development bet.
We’ve seen flashes, but the consistency hasn’t arrived. In this range, that’s fine. You’re drafting potential skill growth.
He’s better suited as a depth arm than a core piece.
SP76-100: Late-Round Impact or Streaming Depth
At this stage, you should be drafting for a path to relevance.
Leiter is the classic stuff bet.
If the command stabilizes, the strikeouts can surge. If not, you’re streaming him in good matchups. In this range, that’s an acceptable outcome.
He’s the type of arm who can leap 30 spots in-season if it clicks.
Role matters.
Weathers landing in New York gives him structure and opportunity. He’s not an ace-in-waiting, but he offers innings and a development runway.
In deeper leagues, that’s valuable currency.
Nelson fits the “quiet contributor” archetype.
He may never headline your rotation, but as an SP6 or streaming option, he can deliver quality starts and keep ratios afloat.
That matters over 162 games.
Sleepers, Busts & Must-Haves
Sleeper: Ryan Weiss (SP – HOU)
Weiss profiles as a growth candidate in Houston’s pitching development pipeline.
Late-round pitchers win leagues when they gain role clarity by May. Weiss has that type of path.
Sleeper: Cody Ponce (SP – TOR)
Ponce is more role-driven than ceiling-driven.
He’s the kind of final-round pick who becomes useful quickly if injuries create opportunity.
Low cost. Clear path. Worth the dart.
Bust: Spencer Strider (SP – ATL)
The talent is unquestioned.
The concern is paying near-peak cost while uncertainty remains around workload and dominance returning fully.
If he falls, fine. But drafting him as if he’s automatically 2023 Strider is a risk.
Tatsuya Imai (SP – HOU) DEBATE: Bust & Must-Have
Bust
The volatility case.
Transition risk. Usage uncertainty. Projection gaps.
If you draft him, you’re drafting ceiling. But the floor isn’t trivial.
Must-Have
The counterpoint.
High-impact arms are scarce. If Houston optimizes him and the strikeout profile translates, you’re suddenly holding a top-25 SP at a discount.
This is a pure conviction play.
Must-Have: Shane McClanahan (SP – TB)
If McClanahan slides deep enough, the risk-reward calculus flips.
He’s the rare arm in this tier who can realistically anchor a fantasy rotation if healthy.
In leagues with flexibility, he’s exactly the kind of calculated gamble you want.
Fantasy Baseball Draft Construction Tips for SP45-100
- Don’t stack the same injury profile twice.
- Pair volatile arms with volume anchors.
- In shallow leagues, chase ceiling.
- In deep or draft-and-hold formats, prioritize innings and role security.
- Your SP5 and SP6 should have a clear path to starts by April.
The biggest mistake fantasy managers make in this range is drafting comfort.
Late pitching wins when you draft outcomes with a believable path to impact, not just familiar names.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- Drew Rasmussen and Bryce Miller are strong mid-rotation stabilizers.
- Cade Horton offers floor. Edward Cabrera offers flash.
- Shane McClanahan is a format-dependent upside play.
- Zac Gallen should be drafted for stability, not ace expectations.
- Jack Leiter is a legitimate late strikeout upside bet.
- Ryan Weathers and Ryne Nelson are depth arms with role security.
- Tatsuya Imai is the ultimate risk/reward swing.
- In the SP75+ range, chase opportunity over reputation.
If you drafted smart early, this is where you separate from your league.
Balance risk. Draft with intention. And always let format dictate how aggressive you can be.
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