Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. With the NFL wrapping up and baseball still on the horizon, we can really sink our teeth into the NBA every day, which is a true treat. It’s been a profitable season so far, with some ups and downs where we’ve missed out on some big wins by inches. That’s all part of the season, and I know a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a very weird three-game slate tonight after the New Orleans-Charlotte game got moved, so you might have to be a little picky or just stick to cash unless you’re willing to be a bit risky.
There is also a prime opportunity for late-swapping in the 76ers-Clippers contest later tonight, which tips off a full 2.5 hours after the previous game. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. With the NFL wrapping up and baseball still on the horizon, we can really sink our teeth into the NBA every day, which is a true treat. It’s been a profitable season so far, with some ups and downs where we’ve missed out on some big wins by inches. That’s all part of the season, and I know a big cash is coming soon.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a very weird three-game slate tonight after the New Orleans-Charlotte game got moved, so you might have to be a little picky or just stick to cash unless you’re willing to be a bit risky.
There is also a prime opportunity for late-swapping in the 76ers-Clippers contest later tonight, which tips off a full 2.5 hours after the previous game. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $9,300
- FanDuel: $9,800
Anthony Edwards is listed as questionable, so monitor injury news because a lot of dominoes can fall with Minnesota. If Julius Randle is out, Edwards becomes a massive play more than he currently is; if Edwards is out, it goes the other way. If both are out, anyone is playable for the Timberwolves. Assuming everyone is healthy, I still love Edwards here.
Edwards sports a 31% usage rate this year and has been playing extra minutes of late, averaging nearly 37 a night over the last two weeks. The Grizzlies’ defense is nothing to write home about, and it’s hard to argue against his floor, as he’s gone above 40 fantasy points in 12 of his last 14 games. To pair with that, Edwards is capable of a 60+ point effort, so I will be overweight on Edwards tonight, assuming health.
- DraftKings: $8,200
- FanDuel: $8,800
It’s hard to argue for a more consistent player than Amen Thompson. He’s gone over 30 fantasy points in all but one of his last 26 games, and that game was a 29.8-point performance. He’s gone over 35 points in eight straight games, and I think that’s his floor tonight, while projecting him for closer to 44 tonight.
Indiana’s defense has holes, and the Houston guard has actually been four points better away from home this year. Over their last 30 games, the Pacers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards, and that jumps to the most (yes, even over Utah) in their last 15 games. With no Kevin Durant, usage is going to jump even more for Thompson, but his price has stayed the same, setting him up as an optimal play tonight.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $6,300
- FanDuel: $6,700
When it comes to small slates, rostership condenses, especially when it comes to centers. It appears Naz Reid is getting that rostership. The Minnesota big man projects for around 35% rostership tonight, and for good reason. Minnesota has the highest team total on the slate, Julius Randle is questionable and Memphis’ defense ranks in the bottom five in the league over their last 15 games.
Reid is averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute, and he’s been averaging over 28 minutes a night in his last three games coming off the bench. You can do the math, but he ends up being a solid value despite being priced over $6,000.
- DraftKings: $6,200
- FanDuel: $6,300
With no Kevin Durant, you knew Tari Eason was going to end up on this list. When Durant is off the floor, Reed Sheppard and Eason get the biggest singular bumps in usage rate on the Rockets. While I do like Sheppard as a value play, Eason has a much higher floor and ceiling. The Rockets forward has averaged 26 DraftKings points per game, but that’s jumped to 32 in the last four weeks.
You can project him for right around that mark again tonight. Eason is averaging 1.10 fantasy points per minute and will see a boost in minutes tonight beyond the 26 he’s averaged over the last two weeks of play. Assuming he plays around 30 minutes, it’s clear to see why he will be over 30% rostered with his price tag.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $9,200
- FanDuel: $9,700
I’m not saying Alperen Sengun will be low-rostered, per se, but a lot of rostership is going to Joel Embiid and Naz Reid, and it feels like the Houston big man is falling through the cracks. Houston is a solid favorite against an Indiana team that will greatly pace up Houston while still owning the 21st-ranked defense.
This is more of a leverage play that Embiid doesn’t get there as the highest projected player on the slate, and I think it’s a strong leverage play. You need pure points with smaller slates, and Sengun is a dependable option with his 27% usage rate and 34 minutes of play, where he needs more rostership tonight.
- DraftKings: $9,400
- FanDuel: $10,400
This is a much preferred play on DraftKings, given the vast price discount, but I’m still shocked at how low rostered the 76ers guard is tonight. He’s scored 60 fantasy points in three of his last eight games, and with a smaller slate, that’s the kind of raw points you’re chasing for a GPP win.
It’s obviously not a great matchup, but Los Angeles may sit some players on a back-to-back, and it’s looking like Maxey is going to be under 15% rostered. Rostership might come up on here with the slate changing, but Maxey looks like a massive leverage option and late swap choice.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,000
- FanDuel: $4,400
For only a three-game slate, there is a lot of surprising weirdness going on today. For Memphis-Minnesota, there might end up being a lot of value options to choose from with all of their questionable players. Los Angeles is playing the second leg of a back-to-back, so who knows what will happen, but with all that said, Ty Jerome is the early high-value option pick.
It’s a little tough to know what to expect considering he played one game and scored 32 fantasy points, but the main result was 20 minutes of play. I feel like that can only go up given what Memphis is dealing with on and off the court, and this game is the clear favorite for the highest scoring affair with a total that is 10 points higher than either of the other games on the slate. Beyond Jerome, Vince Williams Jr. and Jaylen Wells are lining up as solid value options as well.
- DraftKings: $3,800
- FanDuel: $3,900
A general rule of thumb is that if there’s ever a sub-$4,000 option who is a starter, they likely will project to be a solid value choice for punt options. After getting above $5,000 at points throughout the season, Dominick Barlow now fits that mold. This is definitely more of a GPP play with his floor in the single digits and in a tough matchup, but everyone is on the table in a three-game slate.
Barlow should see the court for around 25 minutes tonight, and that opportunity is nothing to scoff at with how cheap he is. There’s a real ceiling here of 30 fantasy points, and he isn’t going to be rostered by more than 10% of the field. At the very least, Barlow offers a late-swap leverage option that allows you to pay up elsewhere.
