Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. We are inching closer to the All-Star break and are finally seeing some warmer weather. With the NFL in the rearview mirror, the NBA should take center stage, where hopefully DraftKings and FanDuel will push bigger contests for casuals to play.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
After a massive 13-game slate last night, we are finishing out the first half of the season with a simple three-game slate. While the strategy may be a bit different, there are still prize pools to claim. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. We are inching closer to the All-Star break and are finally seeing some warmer weather. With the NFL in the rearview mirror, the NBA should take center stage, where hopefully DraftKings and FanDuel will push bigger contests for casuals to play.
If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
After a massive 13-game slate last night, we are finishing out the first half of the season with a simple three-game slate. While the strategy may be a bit different, there are still prize pools to claim. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $8,800
- FanDuel: $9,200
Surprise. We’re starting with LeBron James. Despite the lack of games on tonight’s slate, there is a solid mix of friendly matchups when it comes to fantasy. Los Angeles takes on Dallas at home tonight. The Mavericks are the fourth-fastest-paced team in the league, making this total sit around 233 points.
James is off the injury report after missing last game, but he’s been quite consistent of late, recording more than 36 fantasy points in six straight outings and seeing a boost in usage rate and minutes over his last three games with no Luka Doncic in the lineup.
The Mavericks have dropped to the bottom half of the league defensively over their last 15 games with their new look. For a much smaller sample size, they rank 25th in their last five matchups. Now is the time to strike, and the Lakers will do so through James. He will end up being highly rostered, with name recognition alone usually giving him a boost, but he still makes for a solid play.
- DraftKings: $9,000
- FanDuel: $9,800
He may be the only $9,000 player on the slate, but he also plays the Utah Jazz tonight, making Deni Avdija one of the best plays. With no big names up top, the pricing is soft here, so you aren’t sacrificing much by spending up because “spending up” means something much different today.
However you look at it, at any segment of games throughout the year, home or away, the Jazz have allowed the most fantasy points to opponents across the board and the second-most to forwards. Portland is playing in the second half of a back-to-back the day before the All-Star break, so monitor lineup news, but I imagine Avdija will play around 29 minutes tonight. He’s shown his ceiling, putting up 59 DraftKings points on Monday against a much tougher Philadelphia 76ers team.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $5,000
- FanDuel: $4,800
For another Laker that missed the last game who is off the injury report as of this writing, Marcus Smart makes for a fine play this evening. Since Luka Doncic has been out, the Oklahoma State product has averaged 27 fantasy points, playing over 29 minutes in each game.
Smart’s pricing has adjusted a bit, but it has not caught up to what it should be with the opportunity he will have against Dallas. The dual guard-forward eligibility will only increase his rostership as you can mix and match where you roster him in your DraftKings lineups, but he’s a cheap play that should have a high floor given the state of the Lakers’ roster.
- DraftKings: $6,000
- FanDuel: $6,900
Another guard-forward player on DraftKings, Naji Marshall projects for a high floor against the Lakers. He is questionable tonight with an ankle injury, but early signs are pointing to him playing. As cash options go, he’s a bit sporadic with two 40+ performances sandwiching a 23-point effort over his last three games.
With no Cooper Flagg, however, you can make the case for a lot of Dallas players with their high pace and the Lakers’ bottom-10-ranked defense. Marshall’s usage rate has been a healthy 23% over his last three games, where he’s averaged 33 minutes a night. Those numbers put him in line for a 30-point floor with a high upside.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $8,600
- FanDuel: $7,700
Rostership is a bit of a crap shoot with a lot up in the air the day before the All-Star break. If my rough estimates are correct, the options at forward, and specifically power forward, are healthy for a three-game slate. This means some players will fall through the cracks. I expect one of them to be Chet Holmgren.
The Thunder have been limping towards the break a bit with the 10th-ranked offense over their last five games, which is atrocious for Oklahoma City. Milwaukee has historically been good against opposing frontcourts, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing centers in their last 30 games. But we’re playing the high variance game here on such a small slate.
The Thunder is another team on a back-to-back, so who knows what their rotation looks like. Holmgren may be expensive, but he’s been consistent of late and is capable of 50+ point efforts. He doesn’t exactly project well, but this is a solid small slate leverage play.
- DraftKings: $5,900
- FanDuel: $6,300
I understand that P.J. Washington Jr. is capable of failing to reach 20 fantasy points sometimes, but he’s also shown his ability to go over 40, and that’s what we’re looking for out of the Dallas forward at this price tag.
With no Cooper Flagg, the usage will condense, and Washington will get more run. I expect rostership to catch up a bit to this based on early projections, but it’s not like the Lakers are immune to giving up big games. Their defense is actually worse at home this season by a lot.
When Washington is on the court, he has a 22% usage rate. With the Lakers’ 28th-ranked home defense, that lines up as plenty for a ceiling output.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,200
- FanDuel: $4,100
Generally speaking, I don’t expect myself to find many punt plays in my lineups due to how soft the pricing is today. While a stars and scrubs approach can prove fruitful, I don’t think it’s needed tonight as the stars are mostly out and there’s no one costing you five figures.
I prefer both of these value plays as deep-field GPP swings. One of those options is Luguentz Dort. He doesn’t have a high usage rate, but he does play significant minutes, potentially up to 30 tonight. The opportunity alone can get him there, and he’s gone over 30 fantasy points in three of his last eight games, which would set your rosters up nicely.
- DraftKings: $4,100
- FanDuel: $3,900
I don’t have to do another deep dive into the Utah Jazz’s defense, but basically, they’re bad enough where any Portland player is on the table as a potential GPP spike/dart throw.
Vit Krejci is coming off a solid outing in Minnesota, and I hope he continues such play again tonight. He’s averaged over 23 minutes of play in his last four games, and that should be plenty against a soft Jazz team to get 5X return on investment (ROI) value on his salary. The total for this game is 237 points, after all.
