Fantasy baseball projections are a funny thing They can feel like a cheat code, or like a spreadsheet trying to ruin your feels for a player. We dug into ATC projections (a blended model that aggregates many systems) and highlighted 10 players the numbers are especially bullish on for 2026.
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Fantasy Baseball Projections Love These Players
The key theme: projections are a baseline, not a draft board. They can spotlight outliers, but they rarely hand you true breakouts. They also struggle with playing time. That matters a lot for injury-prone arms, young hitters, and anyone with role volatility (hello, bullpens). Let’s get into the names, what ATC is saying, and how the guys are actually treating these players in drafts.
Hitters the Projections are Buying
ATC is calling for a bounce-back power season: roughly mid-20s homers with mid-20s steals, strong runs, and solid RBI.
The optimistic read is pretty straightforward. Henderson reportedly dealt with shoulder/intercostal issues early and may have been playing through it, which would help explain the big homer drop even with similar games played. The underlying quality of contact stayed respectable, and Camden Yards has played more favorably for left-handed power than many people assume.
The pushback is also real: barrel rate dipped, launch angle has been low for two straight years, and he’s not an elite pull-heavy slugger. Still, the consensus on the show was that ATC’s “split the difference” power projection makes sense, especially given his age and the idea that one small tweak (more loft or more pull) unlocks a monster season.
Draft takeaway: Buy the bounce-back at the 1/2 turn. You’re not paying for 37 homers, but you’re drafting someone who can get back there.
ATC basically says: run it back. Mid-to-high 20s homers, mid-to-high 20s steals, and improved counting stats.
Welsh’s biggest point: the skills growth was legit. Barrel rate spiked, launch angle improved, and the batted-ball shape looks like a hitter who found a better version of himself, not a fluke season. The real concern is games played. Projection systems regularly whiff on durability, and Neto hasn’t banked full seasons consistently.
Orrico was even more aggressive, calling him closer to a top-25 fantasy player than top-50 if he stays healthy. The lineup isn’t great, but Neto’s power/speed doesn’t need elite teammates to play.
Draft takeaway: The projection is believable. Your decision comes down to injury tolerance.
ATC lands him around an 18/18 type season with decent average and good-not-great counting stats.
Orrico’s view: the projection is fair because Pena still has a lot of ground balls, chase in his game, and his “career year” rate stats may be tough to fully repeat. Welsh pushed back hard and made the strongest “projections are underselling growth” argument of the hitter segment. Pena’s barrel and hard-hit trends have improved over multiple years, his K-rate has come down, and the speed is real. If the injury cut short what was turning into a true breakout, a 25/25 season is not crazy.
Draft takeaway: ATC is a usable baseline, but Pena is the exact type of player where you draft the growth case, not the median.
ATC projects a rebound: low-20s homers, modest steals, and solid RBI hitting between stars.
Welsh was cautious, calling Merrill “immensely difficult” and pointing to the platoon issues (especially vs lefties) and uncertainty about what kind of hitter he becomes. Orrico was much more willing to toss last season as an injury chaos year, noting Merrill never got consistent runway. Even with the mess, the power indicators weren’t a disaster.
Draft takeaway: Merrill is a profile bet. In shallower leagues, the discount is attractive. In deeper formats, the volatility is real.
This was the most “projection weirdness” hitter on the show. ATC gives him big power in limited games, but other systems suggest brutal strikeout issues and batting average risk.
Orrico’s concern: if his contact rates translate poorly, you’re staring at a sub-.200 average, and the White Sox context won’t bail him out with easy runs/RBI. Welsh countered with firsthand buzz, including positive player feedback and belief the power is absolutely real, with the batting average landing closer to the .230 range than the projection-doomsday line.
Draft takeaway: Power is the draw. Average and team context are the tax. He’s a calculated gamble, not a core build piece.
Pitchers the Projections are Pushing
ATC likes him a lot: strong strikeouts, solid innings projection, mid-3s ERA.
Both guys immediately hit the same issue: innings. Systems are projecting a volume leap that Greene hasn’t consistently delivered. Welsh also hinted the ERA might be pessimistic given Greene’s skills trend, while Orrico pointed out Cincinnati can punish hard contact and homers even when the stuff is electric.
Draft takeaway: Take him as an SP2 if you’ve already got a volume anchor. Don’t draft him expecting 170+ innings.
Kyle Bradish (SP – BAL) vs. Drew Rasmussen (SP – TB)
This was the best “ADP vs projection” lesson of the show.
ATC has their projected performance surprisingly close, but Bradish is going far earlier in drafts. Orrico’s argument was simple: if the projections are similar, take the cheaper arm with fewer rehab innings concerns. Welsh agreed Rasmussen is the cleaner value but added an important note: “X is cheaper than Y” doesn’t mean Y is trash. It just means you need to be honest about what you’re paying for.
Draft takeaway: Rasmussen is the better cost bet. Bradish still has upside, but you’re paying a premium for it.
ATC sees mid-3s ERA, solid volume, and decent Ks.
Welsh called him a buy, largely because the Padres brought him back and the environment is ideal: pitcher-friendly park, strong bullpen, and a team context that can turn good starts into wins. Orrico likes him as an SP4 type, especially in deeper formats, but noted the price has started to rise.
Draft takeaway: One of the more attractive “post-injury discount” starters if he’s not priced into the top 100.
ATC projects excellent ratios and strikeouts with a partial saves share because the Rays’ ninth inning is murky and health questions exist around the competition.
The big point: projections can’t confidently assign saves in volatile bullpens. That creates an opportunity. If Jax grabs the job early and runs with it, the gap between 15 projected saves and 30 real saves can swing leagues. Orrico cautioned that in sharp leagues, the price is already rising. Welsh added that you’re really drafting the skill set and hoping the opportunities follow.
Draft takeaway: In casual leagues, he can still be a value. In competitive rooms, the market may already be catching up.
Fantasy Baseball Takeaways
- Projections are best used as a baseline, not as a final ranking list.
- Gunnar Henderson (SS – BAL) is a prime bounce-back bet if you believe last year’s power dip was injury-driven.
- Zach Neto (SS – LAA) looks like a skills growth story, with games played as the main risk.
- Jeremy Pena (SS – HOU) is where you decide whether you trust the growth trend more than the median projection.
- Jackson Merrill (OF – SD) is volatile but discounted; shallow leagues can absorb the risk better.
- Munetaka Murakami (3B – CWS) is a power swing with batting average and team-context downside.
- Hunter Greene (SP – CIN) is worth the talent, but don’t draft him assuming a big innings jump.
- Drew Rasmussen (SP – TB) profiles as a strong value when projections don’t match ADP gaps.
- Michael King (SP – SD) is a solid post-injury buy in the right price range.
- Griffin Jax (RP – TB) is the classic “skills first, role later” reliever bet, especially if your league doesn’t chase bullpen news aggressively.
