This piece will not be a one-off. We will have articles for American League players trending up, as well as players trending up and down in the National League. We always hear the terms “buy low” and “sell high” in fantasy baseball, but determining whether someone on a downward trend is worth buying or ignoring is always tough.
The same goes for those on an upward trend. Ideally, this post and the ones that will follow help drafters navigate players with several question marks, or reveal those that seem bulletproof after recent upward trends.
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American League Players Trending Down
American League East
New York Yankees: Anthony Volpe (SS)
The former top Yankees prospect has struggled to live up to his hype. Anthony Volpe has not finished above 90 wRC+ in any of his three MLB seasons thus far, yet he managed 3.5 fWAR in 2024 due to his defense at shortstop. While Volpe has averaged 17.3 home runs per season, he struggles to make consistent hard contact. He also has poor plate discipline with a career strikeout rate of 25.1% and a career walk rate of 7.3%.
Volpe underwent shoulder surgery this offseason after tearing his labrum in early May. His numbers up to that point could be seen as a silver lining for his future. Volpe posted five home runs, a 10.9% BB rate, a 25.4% strikeout rate and a .233/.326/.442 slash-line in 138 plate appearances before the injury. Maybe this was a breakout season cut short? Maybe this was a small sample that would have regressed regardless?
There is no way of knowing, given that the season happened. However, there is hope for Volpe in future seasons. The defense will keep him on the field, at least. However, after major offseason surgery and his general struggles, Volpe is likely a dud for 2026 and should be avoided. With Jose Caballero starting the season at shortstop, the Yankees could be better served to keep Volpe on the bench, on the injured list (IL) or in the minors.
Boston Red Sox: Jarren Duran (OF)
The 2024 fantasy darling was a fantasy dud in 2025. Despite playing just three fewer games, Duran hit five fewer home runs, stole 10 fewer bases, scored 25 fewer runs and hit for .256 rather than .285. Boston’s offense was going through a transitional year last season after trading franchise cornerstone Rafael Devers, yet they were still around average offensively afterward.
Duran took a significant step back as a hitter in 2025, and it is likely closer to his true form than 2024. He whiffed and chased more, likely while attempting to lift the ball more. There is a chance that the trade rumors circulating all season impacted his play, but we can assume it is just regression, given his career numbers aside from 2024. Nevertheless, the upside still lies in Duran and can be reaped with his reasonable average draft position (ADP), which is past pick 70 on most platforms.
Toronto Blue Jays: Jeff Hoffman (RP)
Jeff Hoffman closed a career-high 33 games last season. Before 2025, he earned a total of 12 saves, with 10 coming in 2024. The recently ordained closer for Toronto is a talented pitcher, but he will not hold the job if he continues to post an ERA similar to his 4.37 last year. Hoffman’s peripherals are much kinder to his outlook with a 3.75 xERA, 3.73 xFIP and 3.21 SIERA.
Hoffman has the stuff to close games, but is prone to a stretch of blow-up outings, making him hard to trust. Fortunately, Hoffman was excellent throughout the Blue Jays’ deep postseason run. He earned two saves through 12.1 innings and displayed an elite 1.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP backed by quality peripherals.
The question of which Hoffman we get in 2026 remains to be seen, but with talented relievers like Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers and Brendon Little behind him, an early run of blow-ups leaves him at risk of losing the closing role altogether. Nevertheless, Hoffman is still the closer to start this season and is priced affordably outside of the top 100 in ADP. He is a fine value pick in any league.
Tampa Bay Rays: Cedric Mullins (OF)
During his time in Baltimore, Cedric Mullins was a well-sought-after fantasy outfielder. He climbed the ADP ladder into the top 75 picks for several seasons but has fallen into nearly undrafted territory in most leagues. Mullins is no longer an everyday player due to his struggles against left-handed pitching and his declining quality of contact.
Despite his decrease in playing time and hitting value, Mullins still posts plenty of stolen bases and home runs, with 39 combined in 498 plate appearances last season. The Rays should play him regularly in 2026, but he is only useful at this point in his career for deeper roto formats where you can take the hit in batting average.
Baltimore Orioles: Jackson Holliday (2B)
The former top Orioles prospect had a breakout season in 2025, yet it was still underwhelming. Holliday posted a 21.6% strikeout rate with 17 home runs, 17 stolen bases and a .304 wOBA last year. These numbers are a massive improvement over 2024’s 33.2% strikeout rate and .251 wOBA. Holliday finally looked like a Major League hitter; however, he just broke his hamate bone and could be sidelined for a few weeks beyond Opening Day.
Holliday is still trying to grow into his body and build that raw power up. This type of injury is crushing, given that hamate fractures can tend to have draining repercussions. Ideally, Holliday takes ample time to recover and rehab his strength. If he forces himself back too soon, he could build poor habits or reaggravate a fresh injury. Outside of a major discount in drafts, it is difficult to buy Holliday knowing he has another obstacle to overcome.
American League Central
Minnesota Twins: Royce Lewis (3B)
Royce Lewis has reportedly suffered another injury. During pregame warmups on Thursday, he experienced tightness on his side (typically relating to an oblique injury) and was removed from the day’s lineup as a precaution. This injury marks another notch in an unfortunate trend for the former first-overall draft pick. His 106 games played last season were a career high, but if this injury is semi-significant, Lewis will face an uphill climb to surpass that in 2026.
Beyond the injuries, Lewis’ performance dipped last season. His offensive production was the worst of his career despite a lower strikeout rate than his previous two seasons. Lewis lost his near-elite power and posted an ISO below .219 for the first time (.152). His .292 xOBA, 8.7% barrel rate and .671 OPS were all the worst of his career. However, Lewis did post the best hard-hit rate of his career, albeit by a slim margin. With a home-run-to-fly-ball rate lower than usual, Lewis may bounce back in 2026 if healthy. Of course, that is a big if.
Detroit Tigers Gleyber Torres (2B)
The former top MLB prospect’s season was not a failure, but it was Gleyber Torres’ second mediocre season in a row. Torres experienced a brutal second half in 2025, which sank what could have been a bounce-back campaign. Take a look at his first half/second half splits:
- First Half: 359 plate appearances, .281 batting average, .387 on-base percentage, .425 slugging rate, 133 wRC+
- Second Half: 269 plate appearances .223 batting average, .320 on-base percentage, .339 slugging rate, 88 wRC+
Torres reportedly struggled with a lingering groin issue he initially suffered in 2024. This injury has since been corrected with offseason sports hernia surgery. All reports suggest Torres is fully recovered and ready for a full season on a talented offense. While he may not hit 30 home runs ever again, Torres is due for some regression after last season.
His .256 batting average and .387 slugging rate are well behind his expected .269 average and expected .462 slugging rate. If Torres can get back to hitting 25 home runs, as he did in New York, he should be a fantasy baseball staple in 2026.
Cleveland Guardians: Tanner Bibee (SP)
Last season was not kind to Tanner Bibee. His 4.24 ERA was a full run above his career average, while his K-BB was a career-low 14.2%. The Guardians’ de facto ace was an average starting pitcher and a fantasy baseball bust. Bibee had starts and stretches of brilliance, but it was not enough to clean up the mess of his failures.
Nevertheless, Bibee did end the season on a hot streak. In September, he posted a 1.30 ERA and 0.76 WHIP, which was backed by a quality 20.6% K-BB, 2.38 FIP and 3.08 xFIP. Two starts were against an average Tigers offense, one was against a meager White Sox offense and the other was in the Rays’ temporary home park, a tough road environment.
September samples are often skewed by their limited size and funky lineups, but there were positives from Bibee’s season as a whole. Sixteen of his 31 starts went at least six innings, and his 3.62 xERA was the lowest of his career. Last season also reflected Bibee’s second season in a row with a full season of 31 starts, while reaching a career-high 182.1 innings.
One down year should not be enough to convince us that a talented starting pitcher is doomed. A mulligan is deserved for Bibee.
Kansas City Royals: Jonathan India (2B)
Jonathan India‘s first season with the Royals did not go as expected. He managed to play 136 games despite lingering foot issues, yet posted a career-worst .669 OPS and 89 wRC+. Leaving Cincinnati’s bandbox hitters park for Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium did not do him any favors, but he posted his worst Statcast numbers since 2022. India’s expected numbers are slightly better than his actual rates, but what might really help him is a healthy offseason and the Royals moving in their outfield walls.
India will not have the same leash to struggle in 2026, because the offense is much stronger than in 2025. Jac Caglianone, Carter Jensen and the newly acquired Isaac Collins will be expected to play regularly. If India wants a regular lineup spot, he has to perform between March and May, or else. However, with this boost in the lineup and new park factors, there should be a return to 2023-2024 form in the cards.
Chicago White Sox: Munetaka Murakami (1B)
This one is relative to pre-signing expectations. Munetaka Murakami was hailed as a highly desired offseason acquisition by several contenders, including the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Padres. However, once the time to bid came in, there were crickets. The actual interest in Murakami was limited, resulting in a two-year deal with the mediocre Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox have a bright future with some of their pieces and the first-overall pick in the upcoming MLB Amateur Draft. However, Murakami’s signing said more about him than the team. He was likely mulling several offers of less money or less guaranteed playing time.
With the White Sox, he will be a lineup staple. Unfortunately, that is not always a good thing. If he fails or struggles, that can compound, especially for fantasy managers. Also, he has no protection in the lineup. The best hitters on the White Sox are roughly league-average bats. Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery could be above average, but that is it.
Murakami was already going to deal with strikeout issues, but now that is probably exacerbated by a White Sox offense that forces minimal pressure on pitchers. Murakami’s 29% strikeout rate in the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization (NPB) is likely closer to 35% in the MLB. It will be very difficult to see him succeed this season without drastic changes to his approach.
American League West
Seattle Mariners: Luis Castillo (SP)
The former ace is much closer to an average starting pitcher in 2026. Luis Castillo’s ERA has remained steady between 3.34 and 3.54 since 2023, yet his peripherals are getting worse every year. His 4.04 xERA was the worst since 2018, his 4.03 SIERA the worst since 2021 and his 4.09 xFIP the worst ever.
The biggest culprit for his decline is likely velocity. Castillo’s 95.1 miles per hour (MPH) average fastball was the lowest of his career, and it coincided with a career-worst 21.7% strikeout rate. His velocity has steadily decreased since 2020 and could drop further in 2026. The only silver linings for Castillo are his career-low walk rate in 2025 and a favorable home park for pitchers.
If Castillo sustains his 2025 velocity, or it doesn’t drop much, he could continue outperforming his peripherals and providing quality fantasy performances, but the upside he once had with strikeouts is gone.
Houston Astros: Jose Altuve (2B, OF)
Jose Altuve is not getting any younger. He underwent surgery to repair a foot issue, yet he is likely to continue declining (as he has steadily since 2022), rather than bouncing back. Altuve’s batting average and expected stats were his worst since a shortened COVID-19 season in 2020. His 26 home runs were a high since 2022, but his OPS was lower than both 2023 and 2024. The soon-to-be 36-year-old perennial All-Star is closing in on the end.
Nevertheless, he was still good enough last season and should be a fine fantasy pick if he plateaus. Altuve cannot afford to decline further. The Astros’ offense is formidable, but not enough to carry a mediocre hitter to a quality fantasy season in 2026 unless they seek reinforcements midseason. Altuve will need to continue relying on the Crawford Boxes in left field for any hope of fantasy juice.
Texas Rangers: Jake Burger (1B)
Jake Burger’s first season in Texas was a failure. He was demoted to Triple-A due to early-season struggles and dealt with multiple injuries. Burger slashed .236/.269/.419 with an 89 wRC+. All were career lows, but we can forgive them due to his injuries and the Rangers’ dysfunction last season.
Burger is healthy entering the 2026 season, along with stars Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager. Between these three hitters and the newly acquired Brandon Nimmo, Texas has a formidable top half of an offensive lineup. Their injury risk is higher than most teams, but in the case that all stay on the field, there will be plenty of RBI potential for Burger in the cleanup spot or five hole. At his cost toward the end of drafts, Burger is a great dart throw for teams in need of a late corner infielder.
Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout (OF)
Mike Trout‘s 130 games played in 2025 were his most since 2019 (134 games). He has not played close to a full season since 2016 (159 games), unless you count his 53 games played in the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season. Nevertheless, Mike Trout is still one of the league’s better hitters. Despite his .230 batting average through 159 games since 2024, Trout has 36 home runs, a .347 wOBA, a .368 xwOBA and 123 wRC+ in this span.
The loss of Shohei Ohtani has not helped Trout or the Angels, but their offense is competent with him, Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel and former top prospect Jo Adell, who recently broke out. Trout is extremely cheap, going beyond pick 150 in most formats. If you play in on-base percentage (OBP) leagues, especially with multiple IL slots, he is a great pick for the off chance he repeats a 130-game season. The risk is fully baked in for the 34-year-old future Hall-of-Fame outfielder.
Athletics: Lawrence Butler (OF)
There were high hopes for Lawrence Butler in 2025 after breaking out in 2024. He posted an impressive 130 wRC+ with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 125 games. Also, the Athletics were moving to an extremely hitter-friendly minor-league park, and their offense was projected as potent.
Unfortunately, Butler did not benefit much in 2025 and posted similar volume as in 2024, despite playing 27 more games. Meanwhile, Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom all posted incredible offensive seasons. With the Athletics remaining in Sacramento for 2026, there could be hope for Butler to bounce back.
However, he underwent offseason knee surgery for his patellar tendon and displayed a concerning jump in strikeout rate last season to 28.4%. Also, Butler is horrible against left-handed pitching (career 52 wRC+) and could be subject to a platoon moving forward. His cost is palatable just after pick 100 in most formats, but with the red flags, he would have to drop a round or two before he becomes a worthwhile draft target.
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