The end of fantasy baseball drafts isn’t the time to lazily go on cruise control. There are still sleepers to unearth. The following three pitchers have an average draft position (ADP) of 276 or higher, meaning they’re typically picked after the 23rd round.
Two of the featured pitchers posted intriguing numbers last season, and the other will aim to bring his breakout back to the USA after an elite showing in the KBO League last year.
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Research & Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Average Draft Position (ADP)
- 2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
Fantasy Baseball Pitching Sleepers
Casey Mize (SP – DET) | ADP: 287.2 (P109)
Casey Mize hasn’t developed into the pitcher the Tigers hoped he’d become when they picked him first overall in the 2018 MLB Amateur Draft. Even his 3.71 ERA in 30 starts in 2021, his first full season in the Majors, was a fluke relative to his underlying data. Predictably, he crashed back to Earth, and he also missed the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Mize’s 2024 season was OK for real-life purposes. According to FanGraphs, he had a 4.49 ERA, 4.75 xERA, 4.04 xFIP and 4.33 SIERA in 22 appearances (20 starts) spanning 102.1 innings. Those marks would be acceptable for an innings-eater at the back of Detroit’s rotation, but they didn’t provide any reason to be optimistic about his 2025 season.
A funny thing happened, though. Mize came out of nowhere last season to post his best season, with nifty underlying data. He had the following numbers in 28 starts and 149 innings in his age-28 season:
- 14 wins
- 9 quality starts
- 3.87 ERA
- 3.66 xERA
- 3.97 xFIP
- 3.96 SIERA
- 1.27 WHIP
- 5.7% walk rate
- 22.2% strikeout rate (career high)
- 67.9 F-Strike% (career high)
- 10.8 SwStr% (career high)
- 27.1 CSW% (career high)
- 96 stuff+
- 107 location+
- 103 pitching+
Mize started batters off with a first-pitch strike at a career-high rate, which was also a whopping 5.9% better than the league average. Working in a favorable count did wonders for Mize.
In addition, Mize threw his splitter a career-high 24.2% of the time last year, and he changed the movement on his breaking ball after working with Driveline Baseball in the offseason. The splitter was Mize’s best bat-missing weapon, with an 18.8 SwStr% last year. His increased usage helps explain his career-high strikeout rate.
Mize’s tweaked repertoire unlocked a career year that was largely supported by his underlying data. He was the 58th-ranked pitcher last year by our value-based ranking (VBR) metric, but gamers don’t seem to be buying into Mize’s 2025 breakout. Mize is far too cheap based on last year’s data and is an excellent late-round sleeper target.
Cody Ponce (SP – TOR) | ADP: 288 (P111)
Cody Ponce was well-traveled after leaving MLB following the 2021 season. He spent three years pitching in the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization (NPB) in Japan. The first two seasons were rock-solid, but he bottomed out in 2024.
Ponce’s travels took him to Korea, where he played in the KBO League and was unstoppable. In 29 starts spanning 180.2 innings, Ponce won 17 games, with a 1.89 ERA, 2.30 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 5.9% walk rate, 36.2% strikeout rate, 16.5 SwStr% and 35.1 CSW%. Eric Longenhagen’s scouting report for Ponce’s performance in the KBO was flattering. Ponce demonstrated legitimate stuff last year.
David Adler also called out Ponce’s Statcast data for his fastball and change-up from his first spring training appearance. In four spring training starts spanning eight innings, Ponce recorded a 1.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 12.5% walk rate and 21.9% strikeout rate.
Ponce didn’t walk any of the first 21 batters he faced in his first three starts, but he walked four of the 11 batters he faced in two scoreless innings in his fourth start. His ability to work around the free passes and two hits was promising, and his pristine control abroad and through his first three starts in spring training suggest the walks were a blip on the radar.
Could Ponce turn into a pumpkin and fail to carry over his success from Korea? He could. There’s not much downside to taking a chance on his improved stuff succeeding in MLB at his fantasy baseball ADP, though. There’s also significant upside for Ponce’s 2026 fantasy baseball outlook, making him an exciting sleeper.
Jacob Lopez (SP – ATH) | ADP: 359.8 (P157)
Jacob Lopez didn’t take fantasy baseball by storm last season, but he was the 146th-ranked pitcher, slightly ahead of his current ADP, despite logging only 92.2 innings between 17 starts and four relief appearances.
Interestingly, the southpaw actually did his best work as a starter, and RosterResource projects him as the No. 4 starter for the Athletics. In Lopez’s 17 starts spanning 84 innings last year, he recorded the following numbers:
- 7 wins
- 7 quality starts
- 3.96 ERA
- 3.63 xERA
- 4.12 xFIP
- 3.96 SIERA
- 1.24 WHIP
- 9.2% walk rate
- 27.7% strikeout rate
- 66.9 F-Strike%
- 11.7 SwStr%
- 28.8 CSW%
The lefty was also at his best in the second half. In seven starts spanning 37 innings in the second half, Lopez won seven games and had three quality starts, with a 3.89 ERA, 3.63 xERA, 3.85 xFIP, 3.80 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.5% walk rate and 28.9% strikeout rate.
Lopez isn’t a flawless pitcher. Nevertheless, he can help fantasy teams in strikeouts with a palatable ERA and WHIP. There’s also a chance Lopez’s ERA and WHIP are better than palatable, given his second-half numbers.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | SoundCloud | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
