5 Breakout Candidates: Starting Pitchers (2026 Fantasy Baseball)

Fantasy baseball pitching breakouts usually come in two forms. The first is the obvious riser who starts climbing draft boards in February and never stops. The second is the late-round arm nobody really talks about until the strikeouts show up and the waiver wire is already too late. This group has a little of both.

Fantasy Baseball Pitching Sleepers

In a FantasyPros Fantasy Fest 2026 segment, Ryan Wormeli, Chris Welsh, and Lance Brozdowski highlighted five pitchers they see as strong breakout bets for 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. Some are already getting helium. Others are reserve-round targets in deeper leagues. The common thread is simple: each has a clear path to beating ADP.

Emmet Sheehan (SP – LAD)

Sheehan is probably the least sneaky name on this list, but that does not make him any less appealing.

Welsh made the case that Sheehan’s breakout already began last season, and the next step could be even more valuable in fantasy. The Dodgers are loaded with high-end arms, but that depth may actually work in Sheehan’s favor. With names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani all carrying workload questions in one form or another, Sheehan could become the pitcher Los Angeles leans on most during the regular season.

That matters.

Fantasy value is not just about talent. It is about innings, strikeouts, and availability. Sheehan already showed the skills to matter, with strong ratios and swing-and-miss stuff, especially on the slider. If the Dodgers let him run while managing their bigger postseason pieces more carefully, he could return much more than his draft-day price.

Among breakout arms in this range, Sheehan looks like one of the cleanest bets.

Matthew Liberatore (SP – STL)

Liberatore is the kind of pitcher sharp drafters love in the final rounds.

Brozdowski’s argument centered on Liberatore’s shape diversity and unusual look from the left side. Rather than living off a basic fastball-changeup mix, Liberatore now brings a wider menu, including a cutter, slider, curveball, and possibly even a splitter. That creates more ways to attack hitters and gives him a better chance to survive multiple trips through a lineup.

The bigger fantasy angle is price.

Liberatore is essentially free in many drafts, which makes him a perfect bench stash. You are not drafting him to anchor a rotation. You are drafting him because there is a plausible path to useful innings, solid matchups, and early-season value if the pitch mix clicks.

For managers who like to cycle pitchers at the back of the roster, Liberatore fits the plan.

Cam Schlittler (SP – NYY)

Schlittler might be the most electric name in this conversation.

The head-turning stat is the velocity jump. He went from sitting around 90 mph in 2023 to touching a totally different tier by late last season. That alone would make him worth tracking. Add in a potential bat-missing cutter and a likely shift toward a more optimized arsenal, and you get the kind of profile that can rise fast.

Brozdowski’s point was especially useful here: projections often account for innings risk and team context, but they do not always fully capture usage changes. If Schlittler throws fewer fastballs and leans harder into his best swing-and-miss weapons, the strikeout rate could jump beyond what projection systems currently show.

There is obvious risk here, and he is not the right fit for every staff build. Still, if you start your rotation with safer volume arms, Schlittler is the kind of upside play that can change your season.

Cody Ponce (SP, RP – TOR)

Ponce is a true endgame target.

Welsh pointed to the returning arsenal, the velocity bump, and the addition of a kick change as reasons to pay attention. The Blue Jays also look like a better pitching development environment than they did a few years ago, which adds some quiet optimism here.

The realistic case is not that Ponce suddenly turns into an ace. It is that he goes from afterthought to useful fantasy piece. That can still be a huge win in deep leagues. If the fastball plays up, the offspeed stuff gets enough whiffs, and Toronto gives him consistent work, Ponce could stick as a back-end starter or flexible staff piece who actually helps ratios and strikeouts.

Those are the players who end up on winning rosters more often than people realize.

Chase Dollander (SP – COL)

This is the boldest name of the bunch.

On the surface, betting on a Rockies pitcher looks like a bad idea. That is exactly why Dollander stands out as a deep-league target. Brozdowski’s argument was not that Coors Field suddenly becomes easy. It was that Colorado may finally be modernizing its pitching strategy, with less blind dependence on fastballs and more willingness to feature secondary stuff.

If that happens, Dollander has the velocity and prospect talent to benefit.

This is not a standard mixed-league recommendation. It is a draft-and-hold or watch-list name, especially for road starts. But in the late stages of deep drafts, those are the profiles that matter. If Colorado changes how it develops and deploys pitchers, Dollander could beat very low expectations.

Fantasy Baseball Takeaways

Emmet Sheehan has the strongest blend of stuff, role, and possible workload upside
Matthew Liberatore is a strong reserve-round target for managers who like early bench pitching darts
Cam Schlittler offers real strikeout upside if the Yankees refine his pitch mix
Cody Ponce is a smart late flier in deeper formats thanks to improved stuff and role flexibility
Chase Dollander is only for deep leagues right now, but he is a worthwhile name to monitor closely
A smart draft plan is to secure stable innings early, then chase upside with arms like these later