8 Fantasy Baseball Breakouts: Starting Pitchers (2026)

Here are the top fantasy baseball breakouts at starting pitcher our experts are targeting in their 2026 drafts.

Fantasy Baseball Breakouts: Starting Pitchers

Fantasy Baseball Breakouts

Who’s your top breakout candidate inside the top 60 SPs and why?

Shane Baz (SP – BAL)

“Shane Baz was clearly affected by the minor league ballpark he pitched in last year, as he had a 5.90 ERA at home and a 3.86 ERA on the road. He pumps 97 on his fastball, which was almost a two MPH increase year over year. His curve has a 125 stuff+ and a solid WHIFF rate, to go along with an overall 107 stuff+ rating. Baz is in a much better pitching environment, with great run support, and has the chance to be a top 30 SP in 2026. “
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)

Kyle Bradish (SP – BAL)

“Kyle Bradish is my top breakout pitcher. He’s going as the number 22 starter off the board, and I think he’ll greatly outperform that. Among all pitchers with at least 30 innings in 2025, Bradish ranked fifth in K-BB%. He was in the company of Mason Miller, Aroldis Chapman, and Edwin Diaz… as a starter. The only question is how many innings his innings will be limited to.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)

Chase Burns (SP – CIN)

“I’m sure I won’t be the only one with this answer, but my top breakout pick is Chase Burns. His strikeout upside is nearly unmatched. Burns only made eight starts for Cincinnati last season. He struck out 10 batters in four of those eight starts. For reference, Paul Skenes struck out 10 batters once in 32 starts. Burns is not as polished as Skenes yet, but he has all the tools. He struck out 156 hitters while allowing just 79 hits and 29 walks in 109.1 innings last year across the Majors and Minors. I expect Chase Burns to have a breakout season in 2026. “
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)

To qualify as a breakout candidate, you either need top-of-the-market ratios or swing and miss nastiness. Burns has the latter in spades with potential to “breakout” with significant improvement in the former. Chase Burns’ filthy K/9 (141 strikeouts in 118.4 innings pitched) is likely to be one of the best in the Top 10 SP, never mind Top 60 in 2026. His WHIP of 1.16 in 2025, along with his elite swing and miss stuff, suggests that his relatively disappointing 3.66 ERA will improve as his innings pitched increase. Another factor, as incongruous as it is, is that his underlying metrics need to get better to be a breakout guy (15 homeruns, 36 walks, and 48 earned runs in 118.4 IP), and with his “stuff,” I fully expect they all will. That, to me, is the definition of a breakout candidate and my best bet in 2026. If I had to pick a second, it’s Nolan McLean of the New York Mets. His underlying metrics are all better, in comparison to Burns, making strikeouts and weak-contact rates places that McLean can go from good to elite, and his profile suggests he has the “stuff” to do that. Both these guys are young, undervalued by ADP with elite, breakout potential in 2026.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)

Nick Lodolo (SP – CIN)

“Nick Lodolo will have a big season. Despite a tough home park, Lodolo had good numbers last season with a 3.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He had a 4.8% walk rate and could see more strikeouts after a pitch mix change. In the final 11 starts, he threw his curveball more, and it had a swinging strike rate of almost 16%.”
– Adam Ronis (Sirius XM)

“Nick Lodolo quietly made some massive strides late last season, posting a 3.12 ERA and 0.96 WHIP backed by excellent underlying numbers after the All-Star break. The southpaw submitted the second half’s highest CWS rate (34.1%) and second-best swinging-strike rate (16.2%) among all starters, leading to an excellent 25.1 K-BB% and 2.77 SIERA. While drafters shouldn’t ignore the health and home park risks, Lodolo offers immense upside outside the top-100 picks.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)

Tyler Glasnow (SP – LAD)

“Tyler Glasnow has the type of strikeout stuff that can dominate any lineup in baseball. When he is healthy, he already pitches like an ace, and pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers only increases his win potential with one of the best offenses in the league behind him and now Edwin Diaz to wrap up games. Glasnow’s strikeout rate is elite, and if he can put together a full season, he has the upside to finish among the very best starting pitchers in fantasy baseball and compete for a Cy Young.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

Bubba Chandler (SP – PIT)

“Bubba Chandler’s first taste of the Majors last season was rock-solid. He made seven appearances (four starts) for the Pirates, tallying 31.1 innings. The young righty’s 4.02 ERA was fine. However, Chandler’s 3.66 xERA, 3.20 xFIP, 3.09 SIERA, and 0.93 WHIP were much more eye-catching. Chandler also had a tiny 3.2 BB% and a fantasy-friendly 25.0 K%. Chandler’s plate discipline numbers (13.4 SwStr% and 28.9 CSW%) and pitch modeling (109 stuff+, 104 location+ and 115 pitching+) were also exciting. The 23-year-old righty has the goods to break out and drastically outkick his SP48 ADP.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)

Eury Perez (SP – MIA)

“Eury Perez is ready to be an ace. He earned the eighth-highest Stuff+ rating in Eno Sarris’ model that evaluates pitch quality, which places him among the elite. He posted an excellent .203 xBA (88th percentile) and a 27.3% K% in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. He’s shown flashes of dominance, but hasn’t had the chance to put together a full season in the Majors yet. This is his time.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)

Tatsuya Imai (SP – HOU)

“Tatsuya Imai has shown why the right-hander was so highly coveted by the Houston front office during the offseason, posting a dazzling 0.00 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in three spring appearances for the Astros. Ranked #56 among starting pitchers currently shows how undervalued he is behind Hunter Brown despite possessing ace-level stuff as evidenced by an impressive 0.89 WHIP and 1.92 ERA with 178 strikeouts for the Seibu Lions in 2025.”
– Chris Schommer (FantasyPros)