The incoming rookie class doesn’t appear to be a fantasy treasure trove. Only one player has a top-24 average draft position (ADP) in Underdog best ball drafts. Two have top-60 ADPs, and just seven are being taken in the top 120 picks.
Some rookies will match expectations with their ADPs, and others will outkick their ADP. Nevertheless, it’s probably unwise to get rookie fever and go overboard. Let’s look at ADP data and trends for incoming rookies by position.
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Fantasy Football Rookie ADP Data
Quarterbacks
Fernando Mendoza is the only rookie quarterback with a top-24 ADP at the position, barely cracking that group as the QB24. Only five more quarterbacks have an ADP in Underdog drafts, and their ADPs are in the 20th round. The lack of interest in rookie quarterbacks tracks with the class being panned. According to Grinding the Mocks, Ty Simpson is the only other quarterback with an expected draft position (EDP) in the first round at 25.7. Furthermore, Simpson ranks 32nd on the consensus big board at the NFL Mock Draft Database. Garrett Nussmeier (79th) and Drew Allar (98th) are the other quarterbacks joining Mendoza and Simpson on the top 100 on the consensus big board.
Running Backs
Jeremiyah Love is the fantasy football crown jewel of this year’s NFL Draft class, and his 16.1 ADP is nearly 40 picks ahead of any other rookie. Love is an elite running back prospect with traits, tape and production. Love has a fair ADP, and it’s even justifiable to reach a few picks earlier for him.
There’s not a second rookie running back with a top-100 ADP, and Love’s college teammate, Jadarian Price, has the second-earliest ADP at 102.5. Price is second among running backs on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board, but his ranking is only 51st. Price’s production profile left something to be desired because he worked behind Love, putting some pressure on his Combine testing.
Price’s relative athletic score (RAS) is fine, but his 4.49-second 40-yard dash is merely good for a light running back without a pass-catching profile. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Price had only 18 targets, 15 receptions, 162 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns on 201 routes in 41 games in his collegiate career. Maybe Price’s receiving production will grow out of the shadow of Love, but Price has too many nits to pick to be a fringe top-100 pick in fantasy.
Emmett Johnson‘s ADP took a hit from poor Combine testing, but Jonah Coleman wasn’t punished for skipping all testing except the bench press. Coleman is 18 pounds heavier than Johnson, but both were bell-cow running backs and need volume to be fantasy relevant. The ADP gap between the two rookies is baffling, especially with Johnson ranking 90th and Coleman 101st on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board. Coleman should have an ADP in Johnson’s range.
Mike Washington Jr. is a helium guy after blowing the doors off the Combine. His testing could be enough to get him into the second round, and he has some room to climb without being overpriced.
College teammates Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton are the only other rookie running backs with top-200 ADPs. I would flip them in ADP. Allen was the more productive runner in their final season together, but he’s a grinder type who needs volume and a landing spot that will feed him the rock to provide fantasy value. Singleton is a home-run hitter with receiving skills who can land in best ball lineups based on a big play any week in a change-of-pace role.
After Singleton, 11 more rookie running backs have ADPs, but only Demond Claiborne — barely — has an ADP before the 20th round.
Wide Receivers
The rookie wide receivers are intriguing. College football is churning out wideouts annually. This year isn’t an exception. Five wide receivers are projected to go in the first round by Grinding the Mocks. Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon and Jordyn Tyson are projected inside the top 20, with EDPs of 9.6, 15 and 17.9. Their ADPs are comfortably ahead of the next group of wide receivers, and the ADPs are acceptable. Denzel Boston and K.C. Concepcion are also projected in the first round, with EDPs of 25.5 and 27.7, respectively. They’re in another tier of ADPs.
Meanwhile, Omar Cooper Jr. cracked the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus mock, slotting in 21st to the Steelers. Cooper is a riser, and he could crash the tier in the 120s with Boston and Concepcion.
The rookie receivers also shine on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board, with Tate ninth, Lemon 12th, Tyson 13th, Boston 25th, Concepcion 29th, Cooper 34th, Chris Brazzell 49th, Chris Bell 52nd, Zachariah Branch 53rd, Malachi Fields 55 and Germie Bernard 58th. Elijah Sarratt (67th) and Antonio Williams (68th) also crack the top 70, and Skyler Bell (84th), Ted Hurst (93rd), Brenen Thompson (99th) and Deion Burks (100th) bring the total to 17 rookie wideouts inside the top 100 on the consensus big board. All of the highlighted players are viable dart throws, and Bryce Lance (111th) and Ja’Kobi Lane (112th) were Combine winners and just outside the top 100 on the consensus big board. They’re reasonable gambles, too.
Tight Ends
The tight end position has two freakishly athletic rookies. Kenyon Sadiq ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, setting a new record for the fastest 40-yard dash for a tight end. He also had a 43.5-inch vertical jump, briefly setting the record for the highest vert by a tight end. Eli Stowers took down the vert record at the position, jumping an eye-popping 45.5 inches.
Sadiq is knocking on a TE1 ADP, ranking 13th. He has a 13.9 EDP at Grinding the Mocks, and he’s 17th on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board. Sadiq’s Underdog ADP is fair, given his expected draft capital.
Stowers is also a desirable best ball pick at or slightly ahead of his ADP. He’s 48th on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board. Only six more rookie tight ends have an ADP, and they’re frequently going undrafted since their ADPs are 238.4 or later in Underdog’s 20-round (240-pick) drafts.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.