It’s challenging to overcome a bust in fantasy baseball. No one wants to immediately start behind the 8-ball because they whiffed on an early-round pick. On that note, mid-round and late-round picks can’t be genuine busts, as expectations are lower, and the range of outcomes is wider for players in that range in the draft. Thus, the two featured busts at hitter have top-20 average draft positions (ADPs).
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Fantasy Baseball Busts: Hitters
Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI) | 14.0 ADP
Corbin Carroll had surgery for a broken hamate bone on February 11, and he’s progressed to swinging the bat with both hands. Carroll could be ready for Opening Day. Even if he’s not ready for Opening Day, he’ll presumably be in the mix early in the season, barring a setback.
Carroll’s power could be affected by the surgery if he struggles with grip strength or feels sore, but an admittedly small sample of recent players returning from surgery for a broken hamate bone doesn’t support the old notion of a decline in post-surgery power. Regardless, there’s more than a non-zero chance his power is impacted early in the season. Carroll might also have some rust to shake off after losing out on playing time in Spring Training.
The toolsy outfielder was the 12th-ranked batter in our value-based ranking (VBR) metric last year. Carroll was a four-category contributor with a palatable batting average last season, as evidenced by his stellar ranking among hitters. He scored 107 runs, hit a career-high 31 home runs, logged 84 RBI, stole 32 bases, and tallied a .259 batting average.
According to FanGraphs, Carroll’s career-high homer total came with a 23.8 K%, his highest mark in a full season in the Majors. His .259 batting average was also in the ballpark of his .262 expected batting average (xBA). Last year’s batting average was a rebound from a putrid .231 batting average and .240 xBA in 2024, though. Carroll’s .285 batting average in 2023 also looks like a complete outlier, and it wasn’t supported by his .264 xBA that year.
Carroll is still one of MLB’s fastest runners, ranking tied for 11th in sprint speed (29.8 feet per second) among players with at least 10 opportunities in 2025, per Baseball Savant. Nevertheless, Carroll’s stolen bases have been in decline. He swiped a career-high 54 in 2023, 35 in 2024, and 32 in 2025. His 32 stolen bases were nothing to sneeze at last year, and he was tied for the 12th most. Still, they were his fewest in a full season in The Show.
There’s no question Carroll is a very good hitter, and his 139 wRC+ last year was a career high. He also had surgery, and there are nits to pick in his profile. Carroll is priced as the 13th-ranked hitter in ADP after finishing as the 12th-ranked hitter in 2025. The price is too rich, and there’s bust potential if he has a prolonged slump to open the season after missing Spring Training.
Junior Caminero (3B – TB) | 16.2 ADP
Junior Caminero got tastes of the Majors in 2023 and 2024, tallying 36 and 177 plate appearances, respectively, in those campaigns. Last year was his first full season in the Bigs, and he erupted for 45 home runs, 93 runs, 110 RBI, seven stolen bases, and a .264 batting average, resulting in finishing as the 13th-ranked hitter.
Caminero won’t turn 23 until July, however, he already has grown-man strength. According to Baseball Savant, among qualified hitters in 2025, Caminero was 16th in barrels per plate appearance rate (10.4 Brls/PA%), tied for 14th in maximum exit velocity (116.7 mph), and tied for eighth in average fly ball and line drive exit velocity (97.7 mph). He also did a stellar job of lifting the ball, with a 10.7-degree launch angle.
Caminero can rake, but he overachieved, though. The right-handed slugger’s .264 batting average and .535 slugging (SLG) outpaced his .255 xBA and .501 expected slugging (xSLG). Furthermore, his 45 homers were more than his 39.5 expected homers, per Baseball Savant.
Caminero also benefited immensely from Tampa Bay’s temporary home in 2025. According to Baseball Savant, George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa Bay’s 2025 home field, was tied for the sixth-highest park factor for home runs (112) and tied for eighth in park factor for runs (104). From 2022 through 2024, Tropicana Field was tied for 16th in park factor for homers (98) and tied for 28th in park factor for runs (92).
In 318 plate appearances at home last year, Caminero had the following stats.
- 49 runs
- 22 home runs
- 54 RBI
- 6.3 BB%
- 18.2 K%
- .313 batting average
- .358 OBP
- .402 wOBA
- 160 wRC+
In 335 plate appearances on the road last year, Caminero had the following stats.
- 44 runs
- 23 home runs
- 56 RBI
- 6.3 BB%
- 20.0 K%
- .218 batting average
- .266 OBP
- .313 wOBA
- 100 wRC+
Caminero suffered from some wretched luck on batted balls on the road.
I’ve seen some “Don’t target Junior Caminero” posts due to his .218/.266/.477 slash line on the road last season.
But Caminero on the road also had…
.197 BABIP (Lowest in MLB with 150+ road PA)
.477 SLG & .260 ISO
23 HR (T-5th most in MLB)
92.1 mph AVG EV, 51.6% HH, 13.4% BRL pic.twitter.com/7p1LYJJgTC— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) March 3, 2026
His production on the road was also notably better in the second half.
Very true…
First Half: .177/.225/.378
Second Half: .264/.312/.590— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) March 3, 2026
Gamers shouldn’t over-penalize Caminero for his road splits in 2025. Nonetheless, the move from hitter- and homer-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field, a minor-league ballpark, back to pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field is a sizable downgrade for hitting conditions.
The park factor shift won’t just impact Caminero, either. According to FanGraphs, the Rays were 26th in wOBA (.297) on the road and 11th in wOBA (.326) at home last season. Obviously, the Rays have new faces in the lineup, but last year’s home-and-road splits illustrate how much hitting in a minor-league ballpark helped their offense last season. If the hitting conditions at Tropicana Field negatively impact the table-setters in front of Caminero and the players batting behind him, then Caminero’s run and RBI production would take a hit.
Caminero is an exciting young player with a thunderous bat. Third base is also top-heavy, enhancing the appeal of locking in one of the top players at the position. Caminero isn’t a player to avoid at all costs, but a top-20 pick is too expensive for a player who out-kicked his batted-ball data in 2025, is moving back to a pitcher-friendly home ballpark, and has an unexciting lineup around him. The red flags are there for Caminero to fall short enough of his 15th-ranked hitter in ADP to be a bust for gamers who spend a top-20 pick on him.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
