9 Fantasy Baseball Busts: Starting Pitchers (2026)

Here are the top fantasy baseball busts at starting pitcher our experts are avoiding in their 2026 drafts.

Fantasy Baseball Busts: Starting Pitchers

Fantasy Baseball Busts

Who’s your biggest bust inside the top 20 SPs and why?

Dylan Cease (SP – TOR)

“Though Dylan Cease’s strikeouts continue to look great, and he had an xERA that was over a full run lower, he continues to be more of the same we’ve seen for years, for better or for worse. Cease carried a four-plus ERA during four of the six months of the season, which has been a long standing consistancy issue with the flame thrower. His walks and higher WHIP numbers take away from his upside, and he seems the likeliest of the top 20 pitchers to bust, not accounting for an injury.”
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)

Logan Webb (SP – SF)

“Logan Webb has some bust potential. While he has been extremely durable, with 190+ innings in four consecutive seasons, his WHIP has been detrimental. He’s had a WHIP north of 1.20 in back-to-back seasons. He’s excellent at controlling the walks, but he’s been top-three in the National League in hits allowed in the past three seasons. The Giants had the worst fielding percentage in the MLB last season, and their infield offseason additions won’t help in that regard.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)

Framber Valdez (SP – DET)

“I don’t think any pitcher inside the top 20 is likely to bust unless an injury occurs, and nobody is rooting for that. But I believe ECR’s view of Framber Valdez as a top-20 starting pitcher in 2026 is overly optimistic. Valdez does not possess the elite skills expected of a top-20 starter. He induces many ground balls and limits barrels at a solid rate, but his strikeout rates and xERA are only marginally above average. If Valdez finishes as a top-20 starter in 2026, it will be due to workload rather than skill. “
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)

Chris Sale (SP – ATL)

“It’s Chris Sale based on the price. The skills are elite, but he turns 37 at the end of March and has been limited by injuries the past few seasons. He pitched 125.2 innings last season, and it’s the second-highest total for him in the last five years. Paying a high price tag for a pitcher of his age and an injury history is risky.”
– Adam Ronis (Sirius XM)

Cristopher Sanchez (SP – PHI)

“BEAST DOME ranked Cristopher Sanchez higher than any expert last season, and he delivered a Cy Young-type season. However, I do not believe he is the type of pitcher you can rely on as a true fantasy ace being drafted 6th off the board at the position. For Sanchez to hit value where he is being drafted, inconsistency cannot be part of his vocabulary, and outside of last season, that is all Sanchez was. I am not willing to risk that Sanchez will be a Cy Young candidate in back-to-back years due to the fact that he has never proved it before.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

Hunter Brown (SP – HOU)

“Hunter Brown is understandably getting drafted like a front-line starter after posting a 2.43 ERA and 206 strikeouts last season, but an average ADP of No. 35 is a steep cost coming off a breakout year. The Astros ace had the lowest K-BB% (20.4%) and swinging-strike rate (11.3%) among all top-10 SPs in the consensus ADP. His strikeout rate also dipped to 24.0% after the All-Star break, so Brown may need to hover around 200 innings to justify his price tag. Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo make a better choice if seeking a rotation headliner around the Round 3/4 turn in 12-team mixed leagues.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)

George Kirby (SP – SEA)

“According to FanGraphs, George Kirby had a career-high 4.21 ERA, tied his career-high for xERA (3.88), and logged the second-highest WHIP (1.19) in his career, in career lows for starts (23) and innings (126) last year. Kirby’s career-high 26.1 K% doesn’t stand up under scrutiny, either. Kirby’s 87.2 Z-Contact% last year was higher than the league average (86%), and his stuff+ dipped to 98 after back-to-back seasons of 104. Finally, Kirby’s home/road splits are concerning. He had a 3.38 ERA in 66.2 innings at home last year, and a 5.16 ERA in 59.1 innings on the road, and his 3.07 ERA in 313.2 innings at home in his career is an entire run under his 4.08 ERA in 324 innings on the road.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)

“As I was scrolling through the Top 20 for this article, I had two impressions. One was how thin the SP class is in the Elite tier (I count three, four if you include Ohtani, who is there for reasons beyond his pitching prowess), and two, how respectable, overall, the Top 20 is this season, making it difficult to pick a bust. I had to go with George Kirby. Control is typically Kirby’s thing, making a “bust” season less likely than most pitchers because his floor is higher, but I have him as a bust because he doesn’t belong in the Top 20 to begin with, because his ceiling isn’t up to snuff for a Top 20 SP. Kirby struggles to average a K per inning when he pitches a full season of starts, while he was barely able to break that key barrier in 2022 and 2025 in limited innings seasons. He’s never struck out 200 batters in a season, and he has allowed or averaged what would have been 20 home runs per season in every Major League campaign of his career. Add to that low ceiling, Kirby’s ERA has been good but not special for a command and control guy, a career best in 2023 of 3.35, and he’s coming off a worst 4.21 in ’25. Kirby’s coming off a season where his BB% was far and away his worst. For a Top 20 SP, I want upside and ceiling – that means strikeouts. If I’m going to make an exception, he needs to be a special ERA/WHIP/Ratios guy, and while Kirby is respectable, he ain’t special. I project him as my 2026 bust because 2025 was his worst season to date, and without the upside to buoy any risk that he is in decline, there is nothing but downside and the possibility that he is your Top 20 Bust.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)

Freddy Peralta (SP – NYM)

“Freddy Peralta may have no trouble adjusting to a bigger stage in New York, but he’ll struggle to keep his ratios close to last year’s levels. After posting an ERA over 3.50 for the previous three years, it dropped to 2.70 last year despite a 3.68 SIERA, suggesting some luck was involved. His WHIP had risen three straight years to a 1.21 in 2024 before dropping to 1.08 last season. Regression seems all but inevitable.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)

Joe Ryan (SP – MIN)

“Joe Ryan seems extremely overvalued as the #17 starting pitcher in our rankings. Despite recording 194 strikeouts in 2025, the right-hander posted a hard hit percentage of 41.9%. Combine that with a mediocre 3.42 ERA, and fantasy managers would be better served waiting to fill another starting pitcher slot if Ryan is next on the board.”
– Chris Schommer (FantasyPros)