The 2026 fantasy baseball season will hinge on players with real volatility. These players can crush their average draft position (ADP) or sink it fast. Their roles, skills or health remain unsettled, and that uncertainty drives their value.
Every team has at least one player who can swing drafts. Some are young bats chasing stability. Some are arms fighting workload issues. Others are prospects with untested ceilings. Draft edges come from spotting these swings before the draft room reacts.
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Fantasy Baseball X-Factors for All 30 Teams
An X factor isn’t a sleeper in the traditional sense. It’s the player on each roster whose production variance is wide enough to swing your season — someone whose upside meaningfully exceeds their cost, or whose downside risk is being systematically underweighted by the market.
For each of the 30 teams listed below, I’ve highlighted one player whose 2026 performance will have the biggest fantasy impact, along with the reason for the choice.
American League East
Baltimore Orioles: Jackson Holliday (2B)
The elite talent is obvious for Jackson Holliday, a former No. 1 overall pick, and he profiles as one of the true fantasy X factors. The gap between his ceiling and floor is exactly what defines an X factor. He showed enough in 2025 to believe a breakout is coming, but not enough to guarantee it.
Holliday’s growth was real: A plus hit tool, advanced discipline and a dramatic drop in strikeout rate from 33% to 21.6%, signaling real adjustment to pitching in the Majors.
The Orioles infielder enters 2026 as a potential leadoff hitter in a loaded lineup with legitimate 20/20 upside and five‑category impact, which could turn him into a true difference-maker at middle infield. That’s the bet with Holliday: Draft for the floor, and profit from the ceiling.
Boston Red Sox: Roman Anthony (OF)
Roman Anthony has the kind of profile fantasy managers chase: An elite hit tool with power that’s starting to translate in games. Anthony is walking into the Red Sox’s Opening Day left fielder job at just 20 years old with a hit tool and an elite 13.5% walk rate. Regular at-bats in Fenway with 25+ home run upside and strong run production make him a high-ceiling investment.
The X factor is the power timeline. If the exit velocity gains stick and the power arrives a year early, he has top-10 overall upside — and his current fantasy baseball ADP doesn’t fully price that in. There’s risk, though. The 22% Double-A strikeout rate has to keep improving against MLB velocity. He is the ultimate bet on talent pick. If the power clicks and the plate discipline holds, you’re looking at a .280+ hitter with 25 homers, a strong on-base percentage (OBP) and 20/20 upside.
New York Yankees: Jasson Dominguez (OF)
Jasson Domínguez is making serious noise this spring. His switch-hitting power/speed combo is on full display, including a 111 miles per hour (MPH) homer while hitting .417. In 2025, despite inconsistent playing time, he stole 23 bases in just 381 at-bats — a reminder of how impactful the speed can be.
With 80th-percentile bat speed and 84th-percentile sprint speed, the tools are obvious. If he forces his way into regular left field at-bats for the New York Yankees, the upside is substantial. Draft him as a bench outfielder, understanding he could open in Triple-A — but by summer, he has legitimate five-category breakout potential.
Tampa Bay Rays: Shane McClanahan (SP)
The combination of elite skills and real health questions is exactly what makes Shane McClanahan a fantasy X factor. McClanahan can swing a fantasy rotation by multiple tiers. If he’s healthy, he’s a top‑15 starter. If not, he’s a replacement‑level arm. That range of outcomes is what makes him so intriguing.
After missing nearly two full seasons due to injury, all reports indicate he is healthy and ready for Opening Day. Before injuries, he was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, carrying elite strikeout rates with top‑tier run prevention. His arsenal —upper‑90s fastball, wipeout change-up, sharp breaking ball — gives him true SP1 potential. The Rays may manage his innings early, creating volatility in wins, volume and consistency. Another reason he is an X factor.
Toronto Blue Jays: Ricky Tiedemann (SP)
Ricky Tiedemann is a 2026 fantasy X factor because the stuff is already big‑league nasty — mid‑90s heat, a wipeout slider and a plus change-up that fueled a 14.5 K/9 in the minors. However, the combination of durability questions and an undefined role gives him one of the widest outcome ranges of any arm you can draft.
Toronto has hinted he could open the year in a managed role or even as a high‑leverage reliever, which would cap innings but could also turn him into a ratios‑friendly, strikeout‑heavy cheat code if he picks up relief pitcher eligibility. If he holds up physically and eventually stretches out to 150+ innings, the ceiling is a league‑winner with SP1/SP2 strikeout upside. If not, he’s still a free late‑round lottery ticket at his basement‑level ADP.
American League Central
Chicago White Sox: Colson Montgomery (SS)
Colson Montgomery is an X factor because he pairs a bankable OBP floor with late‑blooming power that can genuinely swing leagues if it holds over a full season. His 2025 breakout backed that up with a 14% walk rate, a 114.5 MPH max exit velocity, a 14.5% barrel rate and 21 homers in just 255 at‑bats. Essentially a 30‑homer pace from a middle infielder who still gets on base at a .350+ clip even when the batting average wobbles.
The strikeouts sit around 30%, but they come without wild chase rates, which is why the profile feels more like a young hitter still finding his timing than a free‑swinging liability. That’s the only real knock, and it’s also the reason Montgomery is discounted in drafts.
If the contact rate stabilizes even a little, you’re looking at a .240 hitter with 30 homers, 90 RBI and a bit of speed at a thin position — production that pushes him into the top 12 conversation at middle infield. At the same time, Montgomery is still being drafted outside of the top 20. The floor keeps him playable all year, but the ceiling is the kind of leap that wins leagues.
Cleveland Guardians: Travis Bazzana (2B)
Travis Bazzana brings a rare mix of plate discipline, emerging power and sneaky speed at a position where true upside is scarce, and he finally enters the year healthy after oblique issues derailed his 2025 season. His 66 walks in 374 plate appearances and a 17.6% walk rate show a polished approach that should ease the typical rookie slump. Scouts still believe he’s faster than last year’s 12 steals suggest now that he’s back to full strength.
Add in the confidence boost and high‑level reps he gained playing for Team Australia in the World Baseball Classic, and you get a prospect who’s far more MLB‑ready than most rookies.
The Guardians have a clear runway for Bazzana, and if he forces the issue after a brief tune‑up in Triple‑A, he has a realistic 20/20 profile with OBP juice and top‑of‑the‑order potential. That combination of role opportunity, advanced approach and five‑category upside makes him the kind of mid‑season stash who can reshape a fantasy roster the moment he arrives.
Detroit Tigers: Kevin McGonigle (SS)
Kevin McGonigle is the rare prospect whose skill set translates to fantasy right away, and that’s what makes him a true 2026 X factor. An 80‑grade hit tool, elite hand‑eye coordination and a 47% hard‑hit rate give him a batting average and OBP floor most rookies can’t touch. He backed it up by striking out just 12.6% of the time in Double‑A before torching the Arizona Fall League with a 1.210 OPS and MVP honors,
McGonigle is not just a contact bat — he’s already producing 107+ MPH contact and turned that into 19 homers in fewer than 90 games, giving him legitimate four‑category potential thanks to emerging pop and double‑digit steal ability. The only real variable is playing time, but Detroit’s need for OBP hitters and his growing defensive versatility give him multiple paths to early at‑bats and fast multi‑position eligibility. If you don’t grab him late, you’re likely spending your top waiver wire claim or half your FAAB trying to catch up by May.
Kansas City Royals: Jac Caglianone (1B, OF)
Jac Caglianone profiles as one of the rare high-ceiling power bats locked into everyday at-bats. His 77.4 MPH average swing speed ranks top-10 in the Majors. His spring training stats already showed multiple 115+ MPH batted balls, including a 120.2 MPH double and a 460-foot home run.
Even in his difficult .157 rookie debut, the peripherals signaled upside. A 12% barrel rate, 114 MPH max exit velocity and a .361 xwOBA suggest his underlying contact quality is strong. Now the Royals have moved the fences in at Kauffman Stadium, which quietly raises the floor for a left-handed masher like him.
The real variable is contact management. Caglianone’s 38% chase rate and strikeout profile introduced volatility in 2025, but everyday reps in right field provide a controlled environment to adjust. If he reduces the chase rate and keeps strikeouts in the high-20% range, projection models place him around a .245/.330/.520 slash line with 30-35 homers and strong run production — a bona fide top-15 fantasy outfielder.
If the swing-and-miss persists, Caglianone is a streaky asset who contributes power but risks batting-average drag. Caglianone represents an X factor: A high-upside power source at a scarce position whose value is driven entirely by measurable improvements in contact and plate discipline.
Minnesota Twins: Walker Jenkins (OF)
Walker Jenkins is a true X factor for 2026, blending elite tools with immediate opportunity — but enough volatility to create a wide range of outcomes. He’s one of the most explosive young outfielders in baseball, with plus-speed, top-tier power and defensive instincts that keep him in the lineup even if the bat is slow to adjust.
Jenkins’ underlying plate skills are advanced for his age: A 13.5% walk rate and 16% strikeout rate across four minor-league levels give him a floor most power-speed prospects don’t have. If that approach carries over against pitching in the Majors, he could hit .270 with double-digit homers and steals in just a half-season.
The risk comes from timing and health. A lingering hamstring issue has slowed his spring, and the Twins may start him out in Triple-A. Still, Minnesota’s outfield depth is thin, and the team is rebuilding, meaning Jenkins will get every chance to earn a full-time role by June. That blend of elite tools, real opportunity and meaningful risk makes him a classic fantasy X factor. He’s someone who could stabilize your ratios across multiple categories or become a midseason game-changer if everything clicks.
American League West
Houston Astros: Tatsuya Imai (SP)
Tatsuya Imai is the exact kind of mid-round lotto ticket that wins leagues. We aren’t just talking about another soft-tossing import. He has 99 MPH heat and a ‘reverse’ slider that generated a 45% whiff rate in Japan last year. His 1.92 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization (NPB) weren’t flukes — his 32.2% CSW% led the entire league. Now he’s stepping into an Astros rotation that lost Framber Valdez and desperately needs a high-strikeout anchor behind Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier.
The X factor here is the volume. Houston didn’t pay him $54 million to sit. They’re going to run him out there for 160+ innings. Sure, there’s always a ‘transition tax’ with the MLB ball and tighter zones, but with his splitter missing bats half the time, his floor is a strikeout-per-inning stabilizer. If Imai’s command holds, you’re getting a borderline SP1 at an SP4 draft price. Take the plunge in every draft where he slides past the 150th pick.
Los Angeles Angels: Nolan Schanuel (1B)
Nolan Schanuel is a true fantasy X factor in 2026 because his floor is already elite, but his ceiling depends entirely on power development. He posted a 12.6% strikeout rate (93rd percentile) and a 10.5% walk rate in 2025, making him a rare ratio-stabilizing corner infielder.
Hitting at the top of the Angels’ lineup — likely in the two-hole — guarantees high-volume plate appearances, strong run production and a top-tier OBP floor, which makes Schanuel draftable even if the power lags. In OBP formats, he’s already a top-20 first baseman with category stability that few young corner infielders can match.
The upside comes from his offseason focus on bat speed and barrel control. After a 2.3 MPH increase in average bat speed last year — the sixth-highest jump in MLB — Schanuel could see his home-run output rise from 12 in 2025 to 15-20 in 2026, if he translates that contact into loft and lift.
Even a modest power breakout pushes him into top-100 overall territory in standard formats, turning a safe OBP anchor into a multi-category contributor with 20+ home run potential. That makes him a rock-solid corner infielder who won’t tank your ratios while you wait for the power to catch up.
Athletics: Junior Perez (OF)
Junior Perez is a true 2026 fantasy X factor for Oakland because he combines elite raw power with real opportunity, but with enough volatility to create a wide range of outcomes. After a massive .298/.412/.642 Triple-A slash line featuring 26 homers and 27 steals, Perez is walking into an Athletics lineup that has zero reason to bench him.
In a home park that finally favors hitters, Perez is positioned to pile up counting stats, and Oakland’s thin lineup ensures he should see 500+ plate appearances. His ceiling is a category-winning power/speed threat, but his floor is a strikeout-heavy headache.
The volatility rests in Perez’s hit tool, more specifically, his 30% strikeout rate. If he trims strikeouts into the high‑20s, he projects as a 25-30 home run hitter with multi-category contributions. If not, he’s a streaky power bat who can win fantasy weeks but hurt ratios.
The power-speed volatility is exactly what you gamble on late in drafts. The combination of elite tools and significant opportunity makes him a classic late-round X factor and a real counting-stat value in deeper roto formats.
Seattle Mariners: Colt Emerson (SS, 3B)
Colt Emerson is one of the most intriguing fantasy X factors in 2026 because the hit tool is already Major League quality, and the approach is far more advanced than most 20‑year‑olds. He climbed three levels last year and held his own at every stop, finishing with a .285/.383/.458 slash line with 16 homers and 14 steals.
That’s real multi‑category juice, and the OBP floor is rare for a young middle infielder. Emerson’s spring has only added fuel — .360‑plus with steady hard contact — and Seattle giving him reps at third shows they’re actively looking for ways to get him involved.
The real debate with Emerson comes down to how quickly the power shows. Seattle’s infield isn’t locked in, but it’s crowded enough that he could still open in Triple-A if he’s sitting closer to 8-10 home run pop rather than 12-15. The contact skills and walk rates translate immediately, so the moment the power clicks, he forces the issue.
That combination — bankable floor with a real chance to spike value the second he’s promoted — is exactly what turns a midseason call‑up into a league‑shifting piece in deeper formats.
Texas Rangers: Evan Carter (OF)
Evan Carter is one of the most undervalued X factors in 2026 fantasy baseball because his plate skills are already elite, his power is trending up and his everyday role in Texas gives him a clear path to profit.
Even in a limited 2025 sample, Carter showed why analysts remain high on him: .297 average, 19.3% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate and the OBP foundation that projects to a top‑third lineup spot. Pair that with 110+ MPH max exit velocity, above‑average hard‑hit rates and 20-25 steal potential, and you get a profile capable of .260/.360 with 18-20 homers, 20 steals and 90+ runs.
With an ADP over 330, Carter is one of the biggest market inefficiencies on draft boards — a late‑round outfielder with legitimate top‑100 upside if he stays healthy. The swing factor is how he handles the adjustments that beat him late in 2025.
Pitchers challenged him with elevated fastballs and early‑count breakers, and his contact rate dipped, creating a wide range of outcomes for 2026. If he tightens up against that approach and lifts the ball more consistently, the underlying power plays for a full season, and he becomes a breakout OF2 with stretches of OF1 production.
If the adjustments lag, he settles into a streak‑driven OF3 who still helps in OBP, steals and runs, but leaves managers wanting more in batting average and home runs. That outcome spread — paired with a locked‑in role and elite plate discipline — makes Carter one of the most important late‑round upside targets in fantasy drafts.
National League East
Atlanta Braves: AJ Smith-Shawver (SP)
If you’re hunting for this year’s rotation lottery ticket, AJ Smith-Shawver is the name you should highlight. He’s the classic high-variance arm that makes or breaks fantasy seasons — boasting that high-octane mid-90s heater and a slider that finally looked like a wipeout pitch at the end of last year. The raw strikeout upside is immense, and being tied to a Braves offense that practically prints win support gives him a ceiling most young arms don’t have.
The X factor here is whether Smith-Shawver can finally ditch the command issues and prove his arm can handle a 150-inning workload without hitting a wall. You aren’t drafting him for safety; you’re drafting him for that week-to-week dominance where he morphs from a late-round flier into a legitimate top-30 starter.
The Braves hurler is the ultimate “swing” piece — if the walks stay down, he’s a league-winner. If not, Smith-Shawver is a high-strikeout streamer, but that’s a gamble I’m willing to take at this kind of late pick that fantasy managers would be thrilled to stash. He provides zero risk and a real payoff.
Miami Marlins: Eury Perez (SP)
Eury Perez returned from Tommy John surgery in June of 2025 and looked like a young ace shaking off rust before finding his stride, opening with a rough 16‑inning stretch before settling into a 3.86 ERA, 91:22 K:BB ratio and a 0.96 WHIP over his final 79.1 innings.
The real signal came in September, when Perez posted a 2.70 ERA with a 33:4 K:BB ratio and a change-up that suddenly missed bats at a 61% clip. That’s the kind of late‑season jump you want from a pitcher in the first year after surgery.
Perez’s 4.25 ERA across 95.1 innings hides how strong the underlying metrics were, including a 3.23 xERA and a dominant final month that pointed toward a full breakout once fully removed from surgery.
The only real questions are workload and whether he can smooth out the home/road splits that inflated his ERA, but the stuff is ace‑level. The strikeout ceiling alone makes him one of the most underpriced arms on the board.
New York Mets: Brett Baty (2B, 3B)
Brett Baty is the kind of late‑round X factor who can swing a fantasy season because the raw power is absolutely there, but the shape of his contact determines whether it shows up in the box score.
Baty has already proven he can hit the ball as hard as anyone —barrel rates in the top fifth of the league, elite exit velocities and the kind of impact that turns routine fly balls into no‑doubters when he gets the ball in the air. The second half of 2025 finally hinted at that version of Baty, with a stretch where he hit over .290 and posted a well‑above‑average wRC+, suggesting his timing and approach were starting to catch up to his physical tools.
The Mets’ roster shuffle in 2026 likely pushes him into a multi‑position utility role, but that actually helps his fantasy value; eligibility at second base, third base, first base and possibly corner outfield gives him multiple paths to at‑bats. The entire profile comes down to launch angle and consistency.
If Baty finds even a modest amount of pull‑side lift, he’s a 25‑homer bat with multi‑position flexibility at a bargain draft cost. If not, he’s a streaky depth piece. That wide range of outcomes is exactly why he’s an X factor. The floor keeps him rosterable, but the ceiling is a legitimate breakout if the swing finally clicks.
Philadelphia Phillies: Justin Crawford (OF)
Justin Crawford fits the X factor label because his fantasy value hinges on one of the most impactful skill sets in the game: Elite speed paired with real contact ability and a clear path to playing time. He brings 80‑grade wheels, plus bat‑to‑ball skills and a swing built to pressure defenses, which is why he stole 46 bases in 112 Triple‑A games and hit over .330 with strong on‑base skills.
That combination gives him a stolen‑base ceiling few prospects can match, and he doesn’t need power to matter — 350-450 plate appearances could legitimately translate into 30-40 steals. That’s the kind of category juice that can swing roto standings on its own.
Philadelphia has hinted Crawford will compete for the 2026 centerfield job, and his ability to get on base, run and cover ground gives him multiple avenues to everyday at‑bats. The outcome range is wide. If the hit tool holds and he earns a full‑time role, he’s an instant category‑shifter with leadoff upside. If the power and approach lag, he’s more of a midseason stash who still offers game‑changing speed in deeper formats.
That blend of elite athleticism, contact skill and legitimate opportunity makes Crawford one of the most intriguing late‑round swings in drafts, especially in leagues where speed scarcity turns players like Crawford into weekly difference‑makers.
Washington Nationals: Dylan Crews (OF)
Dylan Crews’ tools are what keep him firmly in the X factor conversation for 2026, because even after a messy rookie season, the underlying traits that made him the No. 2 pick are still intact. His game is built on a plus hit tool with the bat speed and swing decisions to eventually post a strong OBP, even if the batting average takes time to settle.
The raw power is above‑average and shows up when he gets the ball in the air, with 15-20 homers becoming a realistic baseline. Crews’ speed is a legitimate weapon, not elite but impactful. A 29 feet/second sprint speed puts him in the upper tier of MLB athletes and gives him 15-18 steals upside in a full season.
The blend of hit tool, power projection and speed is why scouts have always viewed Crews as a high‑probability everyday player with All‑Star upside, and it’s also why fantasy managers shouldn’t overreact to his 2025 struggles.
Crews’ tools support a realistic outcome of a .255 to .270 batting average, a .340 to .360 OBP, 15-20 homers and double‑digit steals once the approach stabilizes. The only real variable is how quickly those tools translate against MLB pitching, which is why his timeline (April versus June versus mid‑summer) creates such a wide projection gap.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs: Moises Ballesteros (C, DH)
Moises Ballesteros looks like Chicago’s biggest X factor for 2026, and it all hinges on his catcher eligibility. His bat is already big-league ready — a rare .280+ hitter with 20-25 homer power and advanced plate discipline well beyond his 22 years.
That’s the kind of steady production that quietly wins categories over a full season. If he’s slotting in at catcher, he’s a top-five lock and a huge advantage over the pack of .230 hitters at the position. But if he’s stuck as the team’s designated hitter, that impact drops from “league-changing” to just another solid bat on the waiver wire, making positional scarcity the key to his fantasy value.
Cincinnati Reds: Noelvi Marte (3B, OF)
Noelvi Marte enters 2026 as one of the purest post‑hype X factors on the board — a player whose tools have never been in question, but whose path to consistent production has been derailed by a PED suspension, injuries and defensive growing pains.
The move to the outfield genuinely freed Marte up, both mentally and physically, and the Reds believe the extra space has helped him focus on his offensive approach. That matters because the raw tools are still elite: 116.7 MPH max exit velocity, top‑tier sprint speed and the kind of power/speed blend that makes a 20/20 season very realistic if he stays healthy.
Great American Ball Park gives Marte a built‑in power floor, and he’s projected to hit near the top of a loaded lineup with Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain, which sets him up for strong run and RBI totals. The risk is obvious — he’s missed big chunks of time, his plate discipline is still a work in progress and his fantasy value hinges on whether the power rebounds.
However, with an ADP around pick 165, Marte is exactly the kind of mid‑round swing you take in hopes of landing a top‑10 third baseman or a multi‑eligible breakout. Marte is the definition of an X factor: Volatile and imperfect, but equipped with the kind of ceiling that forces its way into the conversation.
Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Chourio (OF)
Jackson Chourio is one of the few players in the league who offer his blend of category juice and volatility. The tools are obvious: Elite speed, growing power and everyday volume near the top of the Milwaukee Brewers lineup. That gives him a realistic path to a 25-homer, 30-steal season if he stays on the field for 150 games.
What keeps Chourio from being a locked-in fantasy star is the approach — his aggressive swing can lead to chase issues and streaky batting-average stretches — but the underlying growth in his power metrics suggests the bat is still maturing.
For fantasy managers, the bet is simple: If the contact rate stabilizes even a little, Chourio has legitimate early-round production at a mid-round cost, the type of five-category upside that can swing an entire outfield and tilt competitive leagues
Pittsburgh Pirates: Konnor Griffin (SS)
Konnor Griffin is the kind of prospect who breaks fantasy leagues because the tools are so loud that the only real question is when the Pirates let him loose, not whether he’s ready. He’s the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball, coming off a season where he tore through three levels while hitting .330+ with 21 homers and 65 steals. He’s now torching Grapefruit League pitching with a 1.124 OPS and multiple 440‑foot missiles that make Triple‑A look pointless.
Players with this kind of ceiling force their way into the conversation because the upside and the hype are both that real, and that’s why his ADP in the 230 range is a straight-up pricing error. You’re getting a potential 20/50 five‑category star at a mid‑round cost.
Even if the Pirates slow‑play him for a couple of weeks, he’s a mandatory stash because this profile doesn’t exist outside of the top 50 picks. If Griffin breaks camp, you just stole a league‑winner. If he doesn’t, you wait two weeks and still end up with a player who can return top‑20 overall value.
St. Louis Cardinals: Tink Hence (SP)
Tink Hence is one of those pitchers who can tilt an entire fantasy staff because the arm talent is undeniable, but the path to actual value is anything but guaranteed. The Cardinals protected him on the 40‑man for a reason — they still believe in the frontline upside. The stuff backs it up: A lively fastball, a sharp breaker and the kind of whiff traits that make scouts talk about him like a future rotation anchor if it all comes together.
But durability has been the sticking point, with repeated injured list (IL) stints and a rib‑cage issue in 2025 keeping him from ever stacking a real workload. That’s why Hence’s innings projection is all over the map. Even 120 innings could matter because the strikeouts will play, but the floor is just as real — more injuries, a relief conversion or another year of developmental limbo.
Hence is the definition of a fantasy X factor — a young arm with prospect buzz, no bankable MLB production and a ceiling that can win you weeks if he finally holds together long enough to deliver.
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar (SS)
Jordan Lawlar enters 2026 as one of the most intriguing breakout bets in fantasy because the tools that once made him a top‑tier prospect are still fully intact despite the injuries that slowed his rise. His speed/power blend is real — he has 20‑homer pop, 30‑steal wheels and the athleticism to force his way into everyday at‑bats if he stays healthy.
What makes Lawlar so intriguing for fantasy is the volatility. He could hit near the top of a deep Arizona lineup and deliver across all five categories, or he could struggle to stay on the field and fall short of the volume needed to unlock that 20/30 ceiling. That gap between a solid middle infielder and a difference-maker is exactly why Lawlar is one of the biggest X factors on draft day.
Colorado Rockies: Hunter Goodman (C)
Add Hunter Goodman to this fantasy baseball list because catcher-eligible power in Coors Field is basically a cheat code if the playing time holds. Goodman already showed the pop with a 30-homer breakout, and the underlying power metrics back it up. He hits the ball hard enough that Coors can easily push him back toward that range again.
The risk is role and approach: Colorado has shuffled him between catcher, designated hittter and other spots. His aggressive swing comes with strikeouts that could drag the average down. But at his draft price, fantasy managers are chasing the upside scenario where he simply gets everyday at-bats. A catcher with a real path to 25-30 homers is the kind of late-round swing that can quietly win a category.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Roki Sasaki (SP)
Roki Sasaki is a 2026 fantasy X factor because his return to a full starting role gives him a path to unleash ace-level strikeouts and innings with some of the most electric stuff in baseball — an upper‑90s fastball, a splitter that vanishes and the command to actually weaponize both.
If his NPB dominance carries over across a full MLB workload, he has the talent to sit near the top of the league in strikeouts while posting the kind of ERA and WHIP that anchor an entire staff.
The swing variable is volume: If he pushes toward 170 innings, he has top‑five starter upside. If the Dodgers manage him more conservatively, he’s still very good but not quite a fantasy anchor. That gap between solid SP2 and Cy Young‑caliber monster is exactly why Sasaki is one of the biggest X factors on draft day.
San Diego Padres: Mason Miller (RP)
With Robert Suarez in Atlanta, Mason Miller steps into the full‑time closer role and instantly becomes one of fantasy’s true X factors. He brings category‑breaking stuff — triple‑digit heat, a wipeout slider and a whiff rate that only a handful of relievers on the planet can match.
Miller’s 44.4% strikeout rate isn’t just elite; it’s the kind of weapon that lifts saves, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP all at once while he pushes toward 30+ saves on a winning Padres team. That blend of volume, dominance and role security makes Miller one of the most league‑shifting arms on any draft board.
San Francisco Giants: Bryce Eldridge (1B)
Bryce Eldridge looks like the Giants’ first real homegrown masher in years, a 6-foot-7 force whose simplified swing now lets his elite raw power show up in games instead of just in batting practice. The contact quality in his debut already hinted at 30‑homer upside, and a first base/designated hitter role with steady at‑bats gives him a clear path to it.
Eldridge generates the kind of exit velocity and natural loft that plays immediately, and that matters in a fantasy landscape where true power is scarce and rarely cheap. If he records 500-550 plate appearances, 25-30 homers is a realistic rookie outcome. If he pushes into the low‑30s, he becomes the kind of mid‑round league‑shifter who changes standings by himself.
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Dennis Sosic is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Dennis, check out his archive & follow him @THE_S0S8