Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. The playoffs are finally here. Shout out to Orlando for making things interesting against Detroit because otherwise it’s looking like a chalky playoffs. But it’s still early. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
With the postseason, player news is usually more open, but you never know. Late swapping can be leaned on more because shorter slates and longer times between games lead to more information to go off of when changing out your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. The playoffs are finally here. Shout out to Orlando for making things interesting against Detroit because otherwise it’s looking like a chalky playoffs. But it’s still early. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
With the postseason, player news is usually more open, but you never know. Late swapping can be leaned on more because shorter slates and longer times between games lead to more information to go off of when changing out your lineups. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $12,400
- FanDuel: $12,600
It’s Nikola Jokic in the playoffs, folks. Try not to overthink this one too much. In Game 1, Jokic scored below his seasonal average, with 63 fantasy points across 40 minutes of play. That’s closer to his floor than anything else. He’s projected for 20 points more than the next closest player. On a three-game slate, you need those raw points to contend.
Denver has the highest projected team total on the slate, so I imagine a lot of rostership will go towards the Nuggets. It helps that they play in the nightcap because they offer great late swapping opportunities and more exposure. Right now, Jokic is projected for just 25% rostership, and while I expect that to rise throughout the day, I will be underweight on the Nuggets center.
- DraftKings: $8,400
- FanDuel: $8,700
On the other end of the court, you have Anthony Edwards. Technically, Edwards is questionable tonight, so be sure to track any updates because he and Onyeka Okongwu are the two biggest question marks right now.
Assuming he plays, Edwards is simply too cheap. He scored just shy of 50 fantasy points to open the series, and if the Timberwolves expect to contend, they’re going to lean more on the Georgia product. He has the floor with the high possession rate in this game and a clear ceiling to go with it. If he’s full go, I imagine Edwards gets around 33% rostership tonight.
- DraftKings: $8,200
- FanDuel: $9,200
The other team I expect to garner a lot of rostership is going to be New York. The Knicks get a big pace-up spot against Atlanta, and we see the price difference between DraftKings and FanDuel for Jalen Brunson. To open the series, Brunson went off, and he could’ve played additional minutes to add on top of his 47-point fantasy output.
Considering his pricing, Brunson makes for an ideal cash option but still offers the takeover potential needed for GPP contests. I’ll go ahead and cover Karl-Anthony Towns here, too, as he will likely be 25% rostered across contests tonight at a near-identical price as Brunson. Towns didn’t have as great an output to open the series, but still managed to score over 48 fantasy points. Both Knicks stars are projected for over 40 fantasy points tonight, and that feels like a safe projection.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $8,600
- FanDuel: $9,300
I mentioned Denver having the highest projected team total on the slate, and that is a good place to start for cash options. Jamal Murray managed 46 fantasy points in Game 1, and he’s priced down from a few days ago. I don’t know if he’ll score 30 again, but his 39 minutes are quite promising for what should be a close game.
Murray’s usage rate was 33% to open the playoffs, and to get anything near that again, in around 40 minutes, offers an extreme floor hard to find anywhere else. Aaron Gordon is my other go-to option here as a clear cash play, but a lot of the Denver options are going to find roster spots across my lineups tonight.
- DraftKings: $5,900
- FanDuel: $6,400
It’s interesting to see that early on, CJ McCollum is projected as one of the highest-rostered players on the slate. Projected for 33 fantasy points at a sub-$6,000 price tag on DraftKings, it makes sense.
Against a Knicks team that isn’t the most fantasy-friendly team, it feels a little risky. But on a three-game slate, I’m happy taking 30+ minutes out of someone who can sink it from deep and has gone over 30 fantasy points in five straight games, including 33 in Game 1 of the series.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $9,400
- FanDuel: $10,200
You knew this was coming, right? Jalen Johnson’s early projected rostership is in the single digits. That’s preposterous. The Atlanta star didn’t have a great Game 1, which makes this the perfect opportunity to buy low, as he still took 19 shots and played nearly 40 minutes.
We’ve seen Johnson score 70 fantasy points this season, and while that was against easier competition, it’s well within the realm of possibilities tonight. It is hard to find a leverage spot higher than Johnson on this slate. He’s below $10,000 for what feels like the first time in forever and is simply too good a player to be rostered in fewer than 10% of lineups. Besides CJ McCollum, a lot of Atlanta players look like solid GPP plays.
- DraftKings: $8,700
- FanDuel: $9,800
Another team that isn’t garnering much rostership right now is Cleveland, despite having the second-highest team total projection, depending on where you look. That’s simply because there are so many mouths to feed. Between Donovan Mitchell, James Harden and Evan Mobley, I imagine one of them will record a near-ceiling performance tonight. My choice is Mitchell.
Mitchell has the highest ceiling, in my opinion, and owned a 38% usage rate in Game 1. He only played 31 minutes, but if this game is close tonight, that should get him up closer to 35+. We’ve seen Mitchell consistently score over 55 fantasy points. At a $1,000 discount on DraftKings compared to FanDuel, he’s worth rostering in GPPs tonight.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $5,500
- FanDuel: $6,300
I mentioned CJ McCollum seeing ample rostership, but Josh Hart might take the cake as the most rostered player tonight. He managed 43 fantasy points to open the series, and even projecting him for around 32 this time around, he still sits as the highest return on investment (ROI) for his price point.
Hart potentially might be rostered in over 40% of lineups, but if he’s playing 37 minutes in a pace-up spot, it’s surprising he’s not priced over $6,000 again, even with fewer games. I’m comfortable being overweight on Hart tonight.
- DraftKings: $5,400
- FanDuel: $5,000
Minnesota has the potential for the biggest shakeup, depending on Anthony Edwards’ availability, but right now, Jaden McDaniels is projecting for solid value. He played 33 minutes in Game 1, putting up 30 fantasy points.
Tonight, McDaniels is projected for similar production and is cheaper. Rudy Gobert is another solid spend-down spot at center if you’re feeling his $6,000 price tag. It’s hard to find some pure punt plays across the three games with playing time condensed in the playoffs, but there are plenty of value options like McDaniels and Gobert.
