It already feels like ages ago, but the NFL Draft is still close in the rearview mirror, which means we are in peak dynasty rookie draft season. And, thanks to this year’s weak rookie class, average draft position (ADP) is absolutely all over the place. With this in mind, it’s especially important this year to have a handle on the dynasty rookie landscape before you begin your first (or fifth) draft. That’s where the FantasyPros mock draft simulator comes in. Let’s take it for a spin and dive into another dynasty rookie mock draft.
The Mock Draft Simulator allows you to draft against mock opponents with your league’s exact scoring, roster sizes and settings. Today, I’ll be doing a mock draft for the most classic dynasty format: 12-team, Superflex, Tight-Premium, full PPR. I was randomly assigned the eighth pick — that means things could be wild from the start, given how variable the back half of the first round can be this year. Let’s get started.
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Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
1.08: Kenyon Sadiq (TE – NYJ)
As soon as I saw that the fantasy gods had assigned me the eighth pick, I was worried I would end up in this position. In my eyes, there is a clear top seven in Superflex rookie drafts this year. Of course, those seven were the seven already off the board when I came on the clock: Jeremiyah Love, Carnell Tate, Fernando Mendoza, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, KC Concepcion and Jadarian Price.
Stuck in a situation I hoped to avoid, I really only considered two players. In a non-TE-Premium league, I might also consider Sadiq’s fellow new Jet teammate Omar Cooper Jr., but the bonus for tight ends plus higher draft capital means Sadiq is the pick over Cooper here. Sadiq, whom I ended up drafting, is a hyperathletic young tight end who was the 16th overall pick in this year’s draft. The main red flag in his profile is a lack of elite college production, but his upside is sky-high, especially in TE-Premium formats.
The other player I debated here was quarterback Ty Simpson, who went three picks before Sadiq in the NFL Draft to the Rams. Barring an injury to reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford, Simpson isn’t going to be providing any fantasy points this year… and probably not next year either. But being the 13th overall pick means he is essentially guaranteed a chance to start at some point, and his Superflex dynasty value will shoot up when that day comes.
If this were a real dynasty league and I were in a rebuild, I might have taken Simpson over Sadiq as a long-term investment. But in a mock draft, assuming I have a roughly average roster, Sadiq is the pick to guarantee short-term production while offering massive upside.
2.08: Zachariah Branch (WR – ATL)
I was hoping Antonio Williams would fall to me here, but I missed out on the Commanders’ likely starting slot receiver by just one spot. Instead, I pivoted to another undersized third-round wideout in Zachariah Branch.
I don’t love Branch as a prospect. He’s tiny (5-foot-9, 177 pounds) and relied heavily on gadget production in college. Nearly half (45.5%) of his targets came from behind the line of scrimmage. That’s essentially an unprecedented number, but the history of players who even approach it isn’t great.
On the other hand, Branch’s ability with the ball in his hands should guarantee him at least some role right away in an Atlanta offense without much talent at wideout outside of Drake London. The hope is that he follows the path of someone like Wan’Dale Robinson, another undersized gadget guy who eventually also showed the ability to earn real targets down the field.
If you don’t like Branch, the other player I considered at this pick was De’Zhaun Stribling. The 33rd overall pick in this year’s draft has ignited a massive online war about the value of consensus big boards and how much teams should be shamed for straying from them. The 49ers picking Stribling at the top of the second round was a massive shock.
For fantasy purposes, “reaches” do have historically lower hit rates than players with the same draft capital who were picked around consensus. Being the 33rd overall pick is essentially the only positive on Stribling’s profile, as his college numbers were nothing special.
But draft capital is also by far the most predictive single metric for fantasy success, and getting a piece of Kyle Shanahan’s offense is always exciting. Stribling would be a very valid pick at this spot, especially if you’re chasing upside.
3.08: Drew Allar (QB – PIT)
Although it’s easy to fall for the hype surrounding every rookie at this time of year, the truth is that third-round and later draft picks are far more likely to bust than not; I’d even argue the dropoff usually starts in the late-second round. With that in mind, I like to swing for upside with my late-round rookie picks.
While he might not have much else going for him, it’s hard to argue that Drew Allar doesn’t have upside. The former Penn State signal-caller was once considered on track to be a first-round pick (if not the first overall pick) in this year’s draft. He’s got prototypical size and arm talent, and even adds value with his legs.
Of course, there’s a reason Allar fell to the third round in both the NFL Draft and this mock. He hasn’t yet turned those tools into consistently successful quarterback play; the most likely outcome is that he never does.
But if the 22-year-old gets it together, his value will skyrocket, especially in Superflex formats. Given the only other quarterbacks on the Steelers’ roster right now are Will Howard and Mason Rudolph, I’m happy to throw my third-round dart at Allar.
4.08: Brenen Thompson (WR – LAC)
Speaking of upside, how about a receiver who has been compared to Tyreek Hill by both his new general manager and head coach sound? Especially when he gets to play for Mike McDaniel, who orchestrated Hill’s historic 2023 season in Miami.
Obviously, Brenen Thompson, a fourth-round pick who weighed in at just 164 pounds at the combine, isn’t likely to be the next Hill. But he does have the blistering speed (4.26 40-yard dash) to make those comparisons reasonable.
It’s also encouraging that, despite his small size, Thompson wasn’t a slot merchant in college, lining up outside for nearly 90% of his career routes. If he can play at all, I have faith in McDaniel to make the most of his talent. That’s not much, but it’s enough that I’m happy to take him in the late fourth.
5.08: Tanner Koziol (TE – JAX)
Tanner Koziol wasn’t even the first tight end the Jaguars selected in this year’s draft, taking Nate Boerkircher in the second round (Koziol lasted until the fifth round). Despite this massive gap in draft capital, Koziol is arguably the more appealing fantasy option of the two.
Boerkircher looks likely to be a blocking tight end, while Koziol checks the boxes of production (he broke out early at Ball State and remained very productive after transferring to Houston) and athleticism (he ran a respectable 4.7-second 40 at 6-foot-7 and 247 pounds).
That’s really all there is to this pick, which is so unlikely to hit that I’m trying to think of a metaphor less confidence-inspiring than dart throw. Let’s say Koziol is a late-round lottery ticket, but even if you win, you probably only make a few thousand bucks.
After all, Koziol is a fifth-round pick on a team that already has a competent receiving tight end (Brenton Strange), not to mention a glut of talented receivers. But fantasy-relevant tight ends often emerge from absolutely nowhere. Given this is a TE-Premium league, I’d rather take a tight end with some green flags than a similarly uninspiring Day 3 receiver.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
