Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate and today’s NBA DFS picks. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep lineup announcements in mind and stay tuned for late swaps. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. It’s a bit less important on a two-game playoff slate, but it’s still necessary because any edge helps with late swaps.
With only four teams to choose from today, every player is an option, so you’ll have to get creative. In the end, it’s about making the right decisions, and that’s what I’m here for. Let’s get to the best DFS plays of the slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate and today’s NBA DFS picks. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you have to keep lineup announcements in mind and stay tuned for late swaps. That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. It’s a bit less important on a two-game playoff slate, but it’s still necessary because any edge helps with late swaps.
With only four teams to choose from today, every player is an option, so you’ll have to get creative. In the end, it’s about making the right decisions, and that’s what I’m here for. Let’s get to the best DFS plays of the slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $10,900
- FanDuel: $10,600
Last week I started with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This time around, I’m eating the extra money and going with the higher-ceiling play. I don’t buy into narrative storylines much; I always assume everyone is trying 100% in every game as a professional athlete.
But in terms of a “need it” performance, Detroit is obviously in bigger need of winning than the Thunder. There’s also less of a blowout risk in this game, meaning more usage and some extra minutes for the Detroit guard compared to Gilgeous-Alexander. Considering the near-40% usage rate last time out, Cade Cunningham will be highly rostered, but he’s well worth it tonight.
- DraftKings: $8,700
- FanDuel: $8,100
Insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, so I am going to pivot from James Harden to Donovan Mitchell. I liked both of them evenly last time out, just typed up Harden as my more confident play.
As mentioned earlier, I’m more in on the game that feels like the fourth game of a competitive series than a funeral for the Lakers. Mitchell put up nearly 55 fantasy points last time out at home, and I imagine Cleveland will heavily lean on him and his 38% usage rate. He might not score at a high clip, but it’s hard to find a more stable floor.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $7,700
- FanDuel: $8,000
It may be a funeral, but Oklahoma City still has to show up to put the nail in the coffin. Chet Holmgren only put up 32 fantasy points last time out, but that’s still a reasonable number at his price point. He showed his capacity for 49+ points in the three games prior, and I expect to see more of that this evening.
Holmgren will play 30+ minutes and commands a high usage rate, with a high chance of a double-double given his ability on the glass. He should be able to cash a few more threes this time and score closer to 20 real-life points. Thanks to Oklahoma’s dominant offense, I trust Holmgren’s high floor.
- DraftKings: $5,400
- FanDuel: $5,500
On the other side of the ball, we have Marcus Smart. He combusted last time out, only putting up 20 fantasy points, but that feels like his floor. And at this point, with only four teams and low totals, we will take that.
Especially considering Smart plays over 32 minutes a night with guard-forward eligibility, the opportunity and ability to move him around your lineups is well worth his pricing. I project Smart closer to 28-30 fantasy points, which makes him one of the higher-value players on the slate.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $9,200
- FanDuel: $9,000
Will this be LeBron James’ final game? Probably not, but the Lakers don’t want to go down easy. Yes, the Thunder are clear favorites, but that’s what everyone thinks. You have to get creative. It’s still a double-digit spread, but we’ve seen crazier things happen.
Mixing and matching your lineup with Lakers players is a perfect way to gain leverage over the rest of the field, and what better man to do it than James? His usage has been consistent; he’s been scoring and attempting shots at a steady rate. His minutes will be around 36. There’s no better ceiling opportunity than this.
- DraftKings: $6,700
- FanDuel: $5,900
Odds are that Oklahoma City will be the highest-scoring team today. They may put up 130+ points again. If that’s the case, you need to find role players who will pop, like Ajay Mitchell.
Of course, the cat is out of the bag on this one, with Mitchell tallying 52 fantasy points last time out. I imagine that only gives him a bit more run with his 30 or so minutes of playing time tonight.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $5,300
- FanDuel: $4,800
With his expected 38 minutes and ability to heat up from deep, it’s hard not to see Rui Hachimura as a popular option tonight, even with the matchup.
Hachimura showed in his last game that he can put up 35+ fantasy points, and I expect people to be drawn to that. In his last four games, he’s averaged over 32 fantasy points, so it’s not that crazy of an expectation that he earns a high return on investment (ROI) on his price tag.
- DraftKings: $4,500
- FanDuel: $4,000
Max Strus feels more like a GPP dart throw, but he’s shown he can do it before in the opening game of this series against Detroit, where he tallied 32 fantasy points. The guard-forward has dual eligibility and plays healthy minutes, reaching about 27 a night over his last three games.
Strus gets plenty of looks when he’s on the floor, taking 13 shot attempts in Game 1. His price is as good as you can find among the player pool for today’s slate. Dennis Schroder is also in this grouping.
