Ryan Kirksey | Wed, Jul 1st 2026, 7:04am EDT

4 Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates (2026)

After three months of the fantasy baseball season, we have enough data to spot outliers and candidates for positive and negative regression. With half a season of games and plate appearances, we will see wild swings in production, and the tendency is to overreact.

What if a player performs as poorly as Manny Machado (.186/.272/.389) to start the year? Bench him or drop him to the waiver wire? I can’t endorse dropping him yet in 10- or 12-team leagues. What if he is just unlucky in the batting average department so far? Nick Kurtz has 19 home runs but a 30% strikeout rate. He also sports a .386 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Can that pace continue, or will he regress?

The decisions will get tougher as the season goes on. For now, 14 weeks of games are the only sample size we have to go by.

Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates

This series highlights players due for positive or negative regression relative to their recent performance each week, helping fantasy managers view each player accurately. Digging beneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to determine whether a given player is overperforming or underperforming expectations.

With the first 14 weeks of the Major League Baseball season behind us and still about 80 games to go for every team, there will be a lot of positive and negative regression moving forward. Let’s take a look at some of the week’s largest outliers and see what their futures might look like.

Stats up to date through June 29th.

Players Due for Positive Regression

Nico Hoerner (2B – CHC)

If you want a BABIP-correction regression champion for the second half of 2026, Nico Hoerner has to be your man. Despite a 7% strikeout rate (second-best in MLB), Hoerner has a .243/.319/342 line, including a 9.1% walk rate. However, all that is being dragged down by a .252 BABIP, which is a full 50 points below his career average.

That number is one of the 20-lowest BABIPs in the league right now, and it’s something that just has not improved over the first half of the season. All of Hoerner’s other stats are there. His line drives and fly balls are up. His ground balls are down. Hoerner’s hard-hit rate is just a smidge lower than last season. His bat speed is identical, as is his contact rate.

We don’t really like to look at statistical profiles and say that it’s just bad luck, but that might be what this is. This is a player to trade for in the second half, and not someone you are looking to sell for 70 cents on the dollar. If nothing else, the runs and steals should ramp up this summer.

Vinnie Pasquantino (1B – KCR)

Before his hand injury (hamate), Vinnie Pasquantino had carried an extremely low BABIP this season despite still making quality contact at a solid rate. Only recently has he been able to bring it just above .250 (he is at .269 for his career).

A BABIP that low is difficult to sustain for a hitter with his profile, especially one who historically controls the strike zone well and consistently posts hard contact. When he returns from injury in late July, he should rebound.

Pasquantino’s expected batting average (.246) and expected slugging rate (.394) are both noticeably better than his actual numbers and should move up over the balance of 2026. The slugging first baseman still owns just a 7% barrel rate in 2026, which is concerning, but he showed breakout power at this level in 2025 when he hit 32 home runs.

Pasquantino has seen his bat speed decline by two miles per hour this year, again likely due to injury, which may be why he has only six home runs. But he still has a 50% fly-ball rate and has been very unlucky in the HR/FB department (5.8%). That number will surely improve.

Even though his surface stats have disappointed, hitters with strong power profiles like this usually do not continue producing subpar slugging rates for an entire season. Pasquantino’s hard-hit data and launch-angle profile suggest more extra-base hits should come as he returns healthy and the sample grows in the months ahead.

Players Due for Negative Regression

Jordan Walker (OF – STL)

After several years of waiting for it, Jordan Walker is finally breaking out — .290/.343/.516 with 18 home runs, 47 runs, 58 RBI and 10 steals. Among fantasy player raters, Walker has been a top-20 hitter this season.

It’s been a fast rise after two-plus very disappointing campaigns. The only problem is that this performance has a real chance of crashing back down to earth in the near future. In the last 14 days, Walker is hitting just .243/293/.243 with zero extra-base hits. As with anything this good, we have to ask ourselves if it is sustainable. I think it might not be.

Walker has one of the 15-highest BABIP numbers in the league among qualified hitters at .348. For his career, he is only at .319, so a reasonable assumption is that he will regress to that level over the next three months. Walker’s expected batting average and expected slugging rate are both significantly lower than his actual metrics, so that fits the narrative as well.

Walker has done an amazing job elevating his hard-hit rate and launch angle this season. But with a 26% strikeout rate through 14 weeks, he isn’t getting enough bat on the ball for this to last.

Mickey Moniak (OF – COL)

We are already seeing this in his recent return from injury, but Mickey Moniak is a strong negative regression candidate for the rest of the 2026 season. He has been one of the biggest breakout stories of the year, but his production has significantly outpaced what his Statcast numbers say he should be doing.

Moniak’s expected statistics tell a story that his actual numbers don’t line up with his potential future production. His .367 wOBA has been backed by only a .309 xwOBA, one of the largest gaps among qualified hitters.

Moniak’s .550 slugging rate has already fallen by about 50 points from its peak, and also sits well above his .444 expected slugging rate. This means some of his power production has been aided by variables that are unlikely to continue.

Expectations for Moniak should be adjusted post-injury. His improved approach and power gains are legitimate reasons for optimism, yet a hitter carrying a wOBA about 60 points above his xwOBA is usually riding some combination of good fortune and unsustainable results.

If Moniak’s BABIP (.283) or home run rate falls closer to what his underlying contact profile predicts, a second-half decline since his return is very possible.

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