FantasyPros Staff | Wed, Jul 1st 2026, 12:21pm EDT

Fantasy Baseball: Who Falls Out of the Top 10? (2026)

Projecting the rest of a fantasy baseball season is never as simple as looking at the current standings. Every year, a handful of players outperform expectations through the first half, while established stars heat up down the stretch and reclaim their place among the game’s elite.

With that in mind, we asked our collection of Featured Pros to identify the current Top-10 hitters and pitchers in the FantasyPros Value-Based Rankings (VBR), who they believe won’t finish the season in that elite tier. Just as importantly, they also reveal the players they expect to replace them before the season is over.

Fantasy Baseball: Who Falls Out of the Top 10?

*Note: Top 10 VBR as of June 30, 2026

Using FP’s current VBR rankings, which hitter(s) will NOT be in the Top 10 at the end of the season? Who will replace them?

Jordan Walker (OF – STL)

“Jordan Walker had a great start to the season, but that great start is quickly going cold as he is hitting fewer and fewer HRs each month. Walker looked like he was finally putting it together when it was a race to 10 HRs for the leader, but now that we are at 30 HR, led by Kyle Schwarber. Walker has yet to reach 20. At this point, it would be a surprise to see Walker finish the MLB season with 25 HR, as he currently stands at 18. Schwarber’s teammate, Bryce Harper, is finding his swing and will definitely finish in the Top 10.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

“I think the easier answer here is Otto Lopez, but the other name for me is Jordan Walker. He’s having a phenomenal season, and will no doubt come out of 2026 as a top 25-30 player, but I think some of the numbers will come down where he sits as a .270-ish hitter with 30 HR and 15 SB. Very close to first round. Maybe more so than Walker coming down, I think Junior Caminero is just going to keep rocketing up. I am actually surprised to see him outside the top 15 with a .290 plus average and over 20 home runs, but by season’s end, if he has a .280 plus with 40 homers, he’ll be a top-10 bat going into 2027.”
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)

“Jordan Walker will not be in the Top 10 at the end of the season. His hard-hit rate has worsened each month, and in June, he posted a 29% strike rate compared to just a 3% walk rate. He’s still rocking a 92 mph average exit velocity for the month, but he swings and misses too much. I still think he’s a different player than he was coming into the season, but probably not a top-10 hitter in all of fantasy. Consider me shocked if Jordan Walker is ahead of Juan Soto by the end of the season.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)

Otto Lopez (2B, SS – MIA)

“The obvious answer here is Otto Lopez. While the batting average should remain elite, his power numbers will finish far below top-10 standards. He likely won’t reach 30 stolen bases, and his surrounding cast doesn’t do enough for him to reach top-tier amounts in either RBI or runs scored. Lopez is still one of the best second basemen you can roster, but he won’t end up as a top-10 hitter in standard leagues. Junior Caminero has a shot at reaching Top-10 status with the way he’s mashing the baseball these days.”
– Austin Lowell (Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers)

Byron Buxton (OF – MIN)

“Byron Buxton is having a great year with 25 home runs and an .898 OPS. More importantly, he has played in 73 of the Twins’ 87 games. He also appeared in 126 games last season, which was the most since 2017. I’m not suggesting an injury is imminent, but I’m also not buying that he will top last year’s total. Junior Caminero is the obvious replacement, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ben Rice sneak into the Top 10 at season’s end.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)

“Byron Buxton is someone I expect to land outside of the top 10 by the end of the season. The outfielder has rewarded fantasy managers with explosive power to offset his other deficiencies to this point, going deep 25 times to this point. However, a .249 xBA combined with a 30.9% whiff rate and 6.7% walk rate screams regression. Fantasy managers should expect someone like Brice Turang, Ben Rice, or Matt Olson to supplant Buxton by season’s end.”
– Chris Schommer (FantasyPros)

Using FP’s current VBR rankings, which pitcher(s) will NOT be in the Top 10 at the end of the season? Who will replace them?

Foster Griffin (SP – WAS)

“Foster Griffin has had a great start to his MLB career, almost looking like the next Barry Zito. While his start is nice, young pitchers tend to fall as the season goes on, as they never pitch this many innings in a season. Even the great Jacob Misiorowski had an awful July/August/September after dominating the first stretch of his rookie year in 2025. Would not be a surprise to see the Nationals even sit Griffin once they are eliminated in September. ‘Twas a great rookie year for Foster, but Zach Wheeler, who is straight up dominating, will pass him in the Top 10.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)

“This is probably a cop-out, but I have to go with Foster Griffin. While he’s put up some stellar numbers, his expected stats are closer to middle-of-the-road than optimal. He’s a crafty lefty that gets it done with a plethora of pitches, but if you can flip him for a solid closer or a nice power bat, I’d pull the trigger. Zack Wheeler will very likely end up in the top-10 instead.”
– Austin Lowell (Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers)

“Foster Griffin is someone who likely ends up outside of the top 10 at the end of the season. The left-hander has had good fortune to this point, limiting damage despite posting a hard hit rate of 37.4% to go along with a 3.88 xERA. Kyle Harrison, Zack Wheeler, and Paul Skenes are all options I anticipate continuing or finishing the season on a strong note compared to Griffin.”
– Chris Schommer (FantasyPros)

Max Meyer (SP – MIA)

“Max Meyer is currently inside the top-10 VBR with a 2.60 ERA. His xERA is 3.64, and he has a bit of a higher walk percentage, over nine percent, which is less than ideal. He’s no doubt going to go into next year as a top-25 SP, but I think it’s easy to look at and see Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Logan Gilbert, and Logan Webb all as players ranking lower. I think Skenes and Skubal are no-brainer top-10 pitchers for 2027, so he’d be the first to get kicked off this list.”
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)

Drew Rasmussen (SP – TB)

“Half of the current top ten pitchers in VBR, I could argue, will not remain there all season. However, I’ll pick on Drew Rasmussen. He’s been excellent this season and earned every bit of it. The only change from previous seasons is that he has been allowed to go deeper into his starts. In 31 starts and 150 innings last year, he had eight quality starts. This season, he’s already at 92 innings through 16 starts and 10 quality starts. Rasmussen is on pace for a career-high 182 innings, but I doubt he’ll reach that number. No Rays pitcher has pitched more than 180 innings since 2019. Logan Gilbert started shaky, but he can still be a top-10 pitcher.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)

Cam Schlittler (SP – NYY)

“I’m going to pick on Cam Schlittler for just a second, given how high he currently is in VBR. Schlittler is already 31 innings over his career high, and his 5.1% walk rate seems poised for regression. His ERA is a sparkling 2.08, and while his xERA is only 3.13, it will take some blowups (like Tuesday against the Tigers) to get there. There are some BIG names (Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal) missing from the fantasy baseball Top 10 that I expect will make a push in the second half, but I’ll give the edge to Skenes, if the Pirates can EVER figure out how to score runs for him.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)

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