Josh Shepardson | Thu, Jul 30th 2026, 4:46am EDT

MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Thursday (7/30)

Thursday’s MLB DFS main slate features six games on DraftKings and FanDuel, both starting at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Underdog player props are also from the night’s contests.

Thursday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/30)

Nolan McLean (SP – NYM) vs. Miami Marlins

Nolan McLean is the first of back-to-back hot pitchers. According to FanGraphs, in McLean’s previous five starts spanning 30 innings, the righty has logged the following numbers:

3 wins
5 quality starts
1.20 ERA
3.56 xERA
3.04 xFIP
3.22 SIERA
1.10 WHIP
7.3% walk rate
29% strikeout rate
11.2% SwStr%
29.7% CSW%
104 stuff+
100 location+
105 pitching+

McLean’s matchup is mixed, and his betting info is favorable. The Marlins are tied for 15th in wRC+ (103) with a 21% strikeout rate versus righties and tied for seventh in wRC+ (102) with a 22.6% strikeout rate on the road in 2026.

However, Miami is 27th in wRC+ (78) with a 26.3% strikeout rate in the previous 14 days. The Mets are -130 favorites, and the game’s total is seven runs.

Eury Perez (SP – MIA) at New York Mets

Eury Perez is facing off against Nolan McLean, and he’s been arguably as hot as New York’s righty. In Perez’s previous five starts, totaling 31.1 innings, he’s ripped off the following stats:

2 wins
4 quality starts
1.72 ERA
2.20 xERA
3.57 xFIP
3.55 SIERA
0.89 WHIP
8.4% walk rate
27.7% strikeout rate
14.1% SwStr%
26.4% CSW%
111 stuff+
91 location+
102 pitching+

Perez’s matchup and betting info are both decent. The Mets are 26th in wRC+ (92) with a 22.3% strikeout rate versus righties and tied for 17th in wRC+ (103) with a 21.7% strikeout rate at home this year.

New York is tied for sixth in wRC+ (112) with a 22.4% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days, but they’re without Juan Soto while he’s on the injured list (IL). The Marlins are slight underdogs (+110), and the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly seven runs.

Roki Sasaki (SP – LAD) vs. Seattle Mariners

Roki Sasaki is capable of disastrous starts. His full-season numbers are unappealing. That said, Sasaki has had flashes of intriguing production, and he’s in the midst of one right now. In his previous four starts spanning 21.2 innings, Sasaki has amassed the following stats:

1 win
2 quality starts
4.15 ERA
3.42 xERA
3.68 xFIP
3.74 SIERA
1.15 WHIP
6.8% walk rate
25% strikeout rate
14.4% SwStr%
26.6% CSW%
115 stuff+
109 location+
125 pitching+

Sasaki can make a mess of even a favorable situation. Nevertheless, he has a decent matchup and betting info tonight. The Mariners are tied for 11th in wRC+ (104) with a 22.6% strikeout rate versus righties and tied for 20th in wRC+ (94) with a 22.2% strikeout rate on the road this season.

Seattle is also 20th in wRC+ (94) with a 23.8% strikeout rate in the previous 30 days. As a result, Los Angeles is a -150 favorite, and the game’s total is 8.5 runs.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Home (Great American Ball Park )
Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/CIN -105

The Reds are the only offense I want to fully stack on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Pirates will start righty Yohan Ramirez as an opener. RosterResource is projecting lefty Hunter Barco to work as the primary pitcher behind Ramirez.

Ramirez’s 3.21 ERA in 44 relief appearances and 56 innings outpaces his 3.80 xERA, 4.30 xFIP and 4.05 SIERA, and his career numbers are markedly worse, too.

Barco has a 7.71 ERA, 6.82 xERA, 6.67 xFIP and 5.80 SIERA in five relief appearances for the Pirates, totaling 11.2 innings. Neither matchup is imposing for Cincinnati’s lineup in their hitter-friendly and homer-friendly home ballpark.

Core Studs

Elly De La Cruz has hit 10 homers with 31 runs, 21 RBI, 10 stolen bases, a .395 on-base percentage (OBP), .244 ISO, .411 wOBA and 152 wRC+ in 185 plate appearances at home this season.
Sal Stewart has belted 10 bombs with 28 runs, 33 RBI, five stolen bases, a .347 OBP, .229 ISO, .357 wOBA and 116 wRC+ in 222 plate appearances at home this year.
Esmerlyn Valdez has ripped 14 round-trippers with 26 runs, 36 RBI, a .374 OBP, .391 ISO, .435 wOBA and 175 wRC+ in 155 plate appearances in his first taste of the Majors this season.

Value Plays/Punts

JJ Bleday has launched 12 long balls with 18 runs, 31 RBI, two stolen bases, a .377 OBP, .339 ISO, .407 wOBA and 149 wRC+ in 151 plate appearances at home in 2026.
Heliot Ramos has drilled 17 dingers with a .363 OBP, .246 ISO, .382 wOBA and 149 wRC+ in 372 plate appearances against lefties since 2024.
Tyler Stephenson is in superb form, popping two homers with six runs, five RBI, a .350 OBP, .207 ISO, .381 wOBA, .378 expected wOBA (xwOBA) and 136 wRC+ in his previous 60 plate appearances.

Thursday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Nolan McLean (SP – NYM): 6.5 Strikeouts — Higher

Nolan McLean has cleared 6.5 strikeouts in three straight starts and six of his previous seven. His strikeout heater coincides with Miami’s cold streak. The Marlins have tallied a 26.3% strikeout rate in the previous 14 days.

Elly De La Cruz (SS – CIN): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher

Elly De La Cruz has amassed 96 hits, including 18 home runs, 59 runs, 47 RBIs, a .274 batting average, .349 OBP, .219 ISO, .364 wOBA and 125 wRC+ in 395 plate appearances this season. He’s also gone nuclear at home this year.

Shohei Ohtani (DH – LAD): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher

Shohei Ohtani has rattled off 110 hits, including 23 homers, with 68 runs, 65 RBIs, a .289 batting average, .394 OBP, .247 ISO, .391 wOBA and 148 wRC+ in 456 plate appearances this season.

Conversely, Bryan Woo has coughed up a .302 batting average, .350 OBP and .500 slugging rate to 140 left-handed batters on the road this season.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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