Fantasy Football: 4 Running Back Breakouts or Busts (2026)

Our analysts picked four running backs where their fantasy football rankings genuinely diverge, comparing notes to see who’s right about each one. Here’s the full breakdown of where they agree, where they don’t, and why.

4 Fantasy Football Running Backs Experts Can’t Agree On: Breakouts or Busts?

Javonte Williams (RB – DAL)

Going as the RB16, one analyst is the high man here, though only by a single spot over ADP. His receiving metrics were genuinely poor last year, and there’s real risk a teammate could siphon away passing-down work, a case that always feels a little shaky since someone tends to emerge and take snaps whenever a team looks thin at a position. Still, he remains the unquestioned lead back in a strong offense with a stable offensive line, ranking top 10 in rushing attempts, yardage, and touchdowns last year. The other analyst is notably lower, seven spots below, driven mainly by touchdown regression concerns, since 8 of his 11 touchdowns came in the season’s first eight weeks with only three afterward, and real efficiency decline across nearly every advanced rushing metric down the stretch against a tougher slate of opposing run defenses. The host lands right at ADP, agreeing more with the higher valuation in principle, viewing Williams as a fine value at the right price without being an aggressive target.

Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)

Going as the RB21, one analyst is notably higher, believing in the college talent that made him a well-regarded prospect. Last year’s disappointing overall numbers were skewed by a legal situation that kept him out of camp until right before week one; excluding that context and a late-season injury, he averaged fantasy production over a significant midseason stretch that would have ranked him as a low-end RB1 pace, with volume that projects to a top-five carry total leaguewide if extrapolated over a full season, plus a real hold on goal-line work. The other analyst is the low man, sharing the belief in Judkins’s talent but unwilling to invest in what could be one of the league’s worst offenses this year, playing behind a brand-new offensive line with zero continuity and coming off a serious ankle and fibula injury that could mean a slow start despite positive camp videos. The host sides with the more skeptical view, specifically citing reluctance to invest in that offensive situation and real questions about how often the team will even be in favorable rushing situations.

David Montgomery (RB – HOU)

Going as the RB23, one analyst is notably higher, pointing to his status as the undisputed early-down back on a team with an excellent defense, a combination that should produce plenty of close or leading game scripts that favor the run. The offensive line struggled the last two seasons but looks improved after notable additions, and it’s worth noting his ADP has barely moved year over year despite going from a shared backfield to being the clear number one back. The other analyst is nine spots lower, skeptical of a running back turning 29 moving to a line still ranked near the bottom of the league in several advanced metrics, and draws a comparison to a past veteran back who needed a very high per-game carry total to be productive despite modest per-touch efficiency, projecting a similar profile for Montgomery without quite that same guaranteed workload given a teammate still expected to hold real receiving-down value based on camp reports.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)

Going as the RB29, one analyst feels the best about this specific pick of the four, doubting that a more explosive teammate is walking into full control of the backfield. Even during the stretch when that teammate took over after Stevenson got hurt, Stevenson had actually outproduced him on a per-game basis in his own run beforehand, and real recent reports about that teammate’s receiving and pass-protection struggles temper the idea the passing-down role automatically shifts away from Stevenson. The other analyst is notably lower, a longtime fan of Stevenson as a player but worried real recency bias from a heavy postseason workload is skewing perception heading into this year. The explosiveness gap between the two backs is real, with the more explosive teammate posting several long touchdown runs and a strong rookie season including multiple 100-yard rushing games, making it hard to imagine the coaching staff keeping him off the field for long, especially if Stevenson’s own history of fumbling issues resurfaces. The host lands in between, slightly ahead of ADP, while also valuing the more explosive teammate highly, framing it less as an either-or question and more a belief that both backs could produce well if the offense overall takes a step forward this year.

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