Josh Shepardson | Thu, Aug 13th 2026, 7:11am EDT

MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Thursday (8/13)

Thursday’s MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel features six games, starting at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Underdog player props are also from the afternoon’s contests.

Thursday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (8/13)

Payton Tolle (SP – BOS) at Toronto Blue Jays

After getting a taste of the Majors last year, Payton Tolle is thriving this year. According to FanGraphs, in 19 starts spanning 107 innings in 2026, the young lefty has twirled the following statistics:

7 wins
10 quality starts
3.20 ERA
2.79 xERA
3.49 xFIP
3.31 SIERA
1.10 WHIP
6.7 BB%
28.5 K%
13.8 SwStr%
27.3 CSW%
114 stuff+
99 location+
111 pitching+

Tolle has a tantalizing matchup and favorable betting info tonight. The Blue Jays are dead last in wRC+ (77) with a 21.5 K% versus lefties and 26th in wRC+ (93) with a 21.1 K% at home in 2026. Toronto is also 27th in wRC+ (80) with a 19.6 K% in the last 30 days and 23rd in wRC+ (86) with a 20.2 K% in the last 14 days. Thus, the Red Sox are -165 favorites, and the game’s total is 8.0 runs.

Max Fried (SP – NYY) vs. Seattle Mariners

Max Fried is cruising into tonight. In his last four starts, totaling 19.2 innings because he was eased back from the injured list (IL), he spun the following numbers:

0 wins
1 quality start
1.83 ERA
1.62 xERA
2.61 xFIP
2.80 SIERA
0.86 WHIP
8.3 BB%
34.7 K%
11.7 SwStr%
26.5 CSW%
107 stuff+
106 location+
114 pitching+

Fried has a tasty matchup and good betting info. The Mariners are 25th in wRC+ (89) with a 23.6 K% versus lefties and tied for 21st in wRC+ (92) with a 22.2 K% on the road this year. Seattle is also 24th in wRC+ (86) with a 21.7 K% in the previous 30 days and 26th in wRC+ (75) with a 22.1 K% in the last 14 days. So, the Yankees are -145 favorites, and the game’s total is 8.0 runs.

Parker Messick (SP – CLE) at Detroit Tigers

Parker Messick has the worst matchup of the highlighted hurlers. The Tigers are tied for 10th in wRC+ (100) with a 22.6 K% versus lefties and tied for 12th in wRC+ (105) with a 22.6 K% at home this season. In addition, Detroit is second in wRC+ (122) with a 20.0 K% in the previous 30 days and first in wRC+ (130) with a 19.0 K% in the last 14 days.

Still, gamers recognize he has a more difficult matchup than Tolle and Fried, and it should depress his roster rate a bit, increasing Messick’s appeal in GPPs. Cleveland’s lefty has earned the nod in today’s piece by pitching extremely well lately. In his last four starts spanning 24.2 innings, he’s recorded the following marks:

1 win
2 quality starts
1.82 ERA
2.13 xERA
2.88 xFIP
2.95 SIERA
0.89 WHIP
2.1 BB%
26.8 K%
10.8 SwStr%
28.6 CSW%
100 stuff+
110 location+
110 pitching+

Beyond Messick’s alluring numbers, his DFS case is also enhanced by the Guardians being listed as -120 favorites, and the game’s total is 8.5 runs.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Road (Rogers Centre)
Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/BOS -165

Max Scherzer hasn’t been a punching bag since he returned from the IL. Nevertheless, his 2.57 ERA overstates how well he’s pitched in those three starts. The veteran righty’s 4.14 xERA, 3.93 xFIP and 3.99 SIERA are more telling. Additionally, Mad Max has allowed a .312 wOBA to 53 righties and a .412 wOBA to 108 lefties this season.

Home (loanDepot park )
Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/MIA +110

Braxton Ashcraft isn’t a pushover for the Marlins. His 4.08 ERA in 23 starts is unlucky relative to his 3.43 xERA, 3.23 xFIP and 3.32 SIERA. However, Ashcraft has a 4.26 ERA and 3.40 xFIP in 67.2 innings on the road, struggling with the long ball, as evidenced by his 1.73 HR/9. Ashcraft is also a favorable matchup for Miami’s left-handed batters and switch-hitters, allowing a .323 wOBA to 318 lefties this year. The Marlins also have a slightly favorable matchup against Pittsburgh’s bullpen, as they rank 19th in ERA (4.21) this season.

Core Studs

Willson Contreras has popped 24 homers with 60 runs, 71 RBIs, three stolen bases, a .390 OBP, .249 ISO, .397 wOBA and 154 wRC+ in 451 plate appearances this year.
Wilyer Abreu has hit 21 home runs with 66 runs, 64 RBIs, eight stolen bases, a .330 OBP, .209 ISO, .341 wOBA and 115 wRC+ in 508 plate appearances in 2026.
Xavier Edwards has hit six homers with a .375 OBP, .091 ISO, .340 wOBA and 116 wRC+ in 1,016 plate appearances against righties since 2024. He also adds speed, stealing 18 bases this year.

Value Plays/Punts

Griffin Conine has clobbered 13 homers with 26 runs, 27 RBIs, two stolen bases, a .371 OBP, .296 ISO, .404 wOBA and 156 wRC+ in 175 plate appearances this season.
Caleb Durbin stumbled out of the blocks, but his bat woke up in late May. From May 28th through August 11th, he hit 10 home runs with 41 runs, 38 RBIs, 10 stolen bases, a .365 OBP, .203 ISO, .375 wOBA and 139 wRC+. He also had two hits, a run and an RBI last night.
Joe Mack has hit 10 homers with a .299 OBP, .211 ISO, .328 wOBA and 105 wRC+ in 184 plate appearances against righties in his first year in the Majors.

Thursday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Payton Tolle (SP – BOS): 5.5 Strikeouts — Higher

Admittedly, Payton Tolle has a challenging matchup for strikeouts. It likely doesn’t matter for clearing 5.5 strikeouts, though. That bar is low for him. He’s struck out more than 5.5 batters in six straight starts and seven of his last eight, and he had only six strikeouts once during that heater. The lefty struck out at least seven in five straight games and six of his last eight.

Steven Kwan (OF – CLE): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher

Steven Kwan was putrid to start the year, but he’s turned it on. In 205 plate appearances from June 5th through August 11th, he rattled off 60 hits, 23 runs, 10 RBIs, a .339 batting average and .419 OBP, climbing to the leadoff spot. He’s cleared 1.5 hits plus runs and RBIs in three straight games and five of his last six.

Braxton Ashcraft (SP – PIT): 17.5 Outs Recorded — Lower

Braxton Ashcraft isn’t an innings eater. He’s recorded fewer than 18 outs in back-to-back starts and five of his last six.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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