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Brendan Tuma

FantasyPros

Ian Anderson (SP - ATL)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Ian Anderson (SP - ATL)
Playoffs included, Anderson's final 2020 stat line was 51 innings, 65 strikeouts, a 1.59 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP. Backed up by a strong prospect pedigree, Anderson was extremely impressive in his first taste of the big leagues. He never got shelled in any start and gave up just one homer all season. His regular season CSW (called strike plus whiff rate) compated similarly to Blake Snell and Walker Buehler at 30.8%. The concerns with his '21 fantasy value are a 4.2 BB/9 and an innings limit. While valid, Anderson is talented enough to still warrant excitement as a top 25-30 SP.
Marcell Ozuna (LF,DH - ATL)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Marcell Ozuna (LF,DH - ATL)
Ozuna nearly won the National League triple crown last season. After back-to-back years of under performing his peripherals, Ozuna finally erupted with a monster fantasy campaign. He's now back with the Braves and projects as one of the safest power bats in the early rounds of 2021 drafts.
Trevor Bauer (SP - LAD)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Trevor Bauer (SP - LAD)
Over the past few seasons the time to invest in Bauer has been when his ADP has dipped, and not when he's coming off a career-year. However, the spin rate on his fastball increased so much in 2020 that I feel a lot better about projecting him moving forward. It's fair to assume he was using sticky stuff, but so is everyone else. There's little reason to think he'll stop using it, which is why he easily checks in as my SP4. Additionally, the Dodgers are letting Bauer be himself this spring. He's controversial for a lot of reasons, but ultimately profiles as a true fantasy ace.
Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B - PIT)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B - PIT)
Hayes came up through the minors as a glove-first prospect before erupting onto the major league scene by hitting 376/.442/.582 in a 24-game sample. His 92.8 mph average exit velocity and 55.4% hard-hit rate both would've ranked within the top-15 of baseball if he had the playing time to qualify. Hayes still hits more ground balls than I'd like, but he's talented enough to continue adjusting and is already a very different hitter than he was in 2019. Hayes might not hit 25+ homers but fantasy managers can expect a high average with a lot of doubles. Early-career Manny Machado is my best comparison for him.
Teoscar Hernandez (CF,DH,LF,RF - TOR)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Teoscar Hernandez (CF,DH,LF,RF - TOR)
Unlike some fellow 2020 breakouts like Corbin Burnes and Zach Plesac, it's tough to figure out what led to Hernandez's sudden production. The Statcast page is blood red, but there weren't any improvements in his overall plate discipline. Skeptics point to this as a reason to say that he simply got hot for two months last summer. Perhaps he simply got a lot better at recognizing pitches, but a 33% HR/FB rate and a .348 BABIP are further indications that this production won't last.
Zac Gallen (SP - ARI)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Zac Gallen (SP - ARI)
Gallen has been undergoing treatment for lateral forearm soreness since mid-March, which isn't what fantasy managers want to hear. Even worse, the young right-hander first felt the injury while swinging a bat. His timeline to return is completely up in the air, so we need to move him down the rankings until we learn more. Once healthy, Gallen has four above average pitches that he can use to flummox hitters. The WHIP won't be as pristine as most of the true SP1s, but this is a young pitcher who has a 2.81 ERA over his first 27 big league starts. Hopefully he gets right soon.
Matt Barnes (RP - BOS)
Mon, Mar 22
Player Note on Matt Barnes (RP - BOS)
Red Sox manager Alex Cora wants to name a closer this year. The last time he managed was in 2019 when Boston infamously used a closer-by-committee approach. It was a disaster. Barnes' 2020 could also be viewed as a disaster, though, so why should fantasy managers be willing to buy back in this year? Like many players, Barnes talked about how it was tough to build up for the shortened season. He then finished the year on a roll, securing 9-of-12 save chances with a 3.38 ERA after Brandon Workman was traded. Barnes is underrated in terms of K/9, and he struggles with control at times, but he's the favorite to lead the Red Sox in saves this season.
Cody Bellinger (1B,CF,RF - LAD)
Mon, Mar 22
Player Note on Cody Bellinger (1B,CF,RF - LAD)
Bellinger has begun playing in spring games, so concerns over his offseason shoulder surgery have lessened. Now it's time to figure out if we can rely on him as a fantasy star following an underwhelming 2020. It's worth noting that Bellinger finished strong, posting a 12.5% barrel-rate over his final 37 contests. This was very close to the 13% barrel-rate mark from his MVP-winning 2019. Over these final 37 games Bellinger hit 10 homers with a .960 OPS. 2019 could very well go down as the best season of his career, but that doesn't mean Bellinger can't be a fantasy star for years to come. Don't let him fall too late into Round 2 come draft day.
Hyun Jin Ryu (SP - TOR)
Mon, Mar 22
Player Note on Hyun Jin Ryu (SP - TOR)
Ryu fits well on certain roto builds. His elite ERA and WHIP numbers give fantasy managers a very strong base at those rate stats. It's much easier to find high-upside strikeout arms later in drafts, which pair well with Ryu's floor. Over the past three seasons only Jacob deGrom (2.10) has a lower ERA than Ryu (2.30).
Paul Goldschmidt (1B - STL)
Mon, Mar 22
Player Note on Paul Goldschmidt (1B - STL)
We might've written Goldschmidt's obituary too soon following 2019. His .417 OBP ranked seventh in baseball, which highlighted a trend of the former Diamondback chasing less and less. Goldy's chase rate dropped from 28.4% to 22.5% in 2020. His average exit velocity has dropped but his max exit velocity has remained consistent. All of this combined with the arrival of Nolan Arenado should have fantasy managers excited about the discount Goldschmidt can be had at.
Ian Anderson (SP - ATL)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Ian Anderson (SP - ATL)
Playoffs included, Anderson's final 2020 stat line was 51 innings, 65 strikeouts, a 1.59 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP. Backed up by a strong prospect pedigree, Anderson was extremely impressive in his first taste of the big leagues. He never got shelled in any start and gave up just one homer all season. His regular season CSW (called strike plus whiff rate) compated similarly to Blake Snell and Walker Buehler at 30.8%. The concerns with his '21 fantasy value are a 4.2 BB/9 and an innings limit. While valid, Anderson is talented enough to still warrant excitement as a top 25-30 SP.
Marcell Ozuna (LF,DH - ATL)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Marcell Ozuna (LF,DH - ATL)
Ozuna nearly won the National League triple crown last season. After back-to-back years of under performing his peripherals, Ozuna finally erupted with a monster fantasy campaign. He's now back with the Braves and projects as one of the safest power bats in the early rounds of 2021 drafts.
Trevor Bauer (SP - LAD)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Trevor Bauer (SP - LAD)
Over the past few seasons the time to invest in Bauer has been when his ADP has dipped, and not when he's coming off a career-year. However, the spin rate on his fastball increased so much in 2020 that I feel a lot better about projecting him moving forward. It's fair to assume he was using sticky stuff, but so is everyone else. There's little reason to think he'll stop using it, which is why he easily checks in as my SP4. Additionally, the Dodgers are letting Bauer be himself this spring. He's controversial for a lot of reasons, but ultimately profiles as a true fantasy ace.
Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B - PIT)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B - PIT)
Hayes came up through the minors as a glove-first prospect before erupting onto the major league scene by hitting 376/.442/.582 in a 24-game sample. His 92.8 mph average exit velocity and 55.4% hard-hit rate both would've ranked within the top-15 of baseball if he had the playing time to qualify. Hayes still hits more ground balls than I'd like, but he's talented enough to continue adjusting and is already a very different hitter than he was in 2019. Hayes might not hit 25+ homers but fantasy managers can expect a high average with a lot of doubles. Early-career Manny Machado is my best comparison for him.
Teoscar Hernandez (CF,DH,LF,RF - TOR)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Teoscar Hernandez (CF,DH,LF,RF - TOR)
Unlike some fellow 2020 breakouts like Corbin Burnes and Zach Plesac, it's tough to figure out what led to Hernandez's sudden production. The Statcast page is blood red, but there weren't any improvements in his overall plate discipline. Skeptics point to this as a reason to say that he simply got hot for two months last summer. Perhaps he simply got a lot better at recognizing pitches, but a 33% HR/FB rate and a .348 BABIP are further indications that this production won't last.
Zac Gallen (SP - ARI)
Tue, Mar 23
Player Note on Zac Gallen (SP - ARI)
Gallen has been undergoing treatment for lateral forearm soreness since mid-March, which isn't what fantasy managers want to hear. Even worse, the young right-hander first felt the injury while swinging a bat. His timeline to return is completely up in the air, so we need to move him down the rankings until we learn more. Once healthy, Gallen has four above average pitches that he can use to flummox hitters. The WHIP won't be as pristine as most of the true SP1s, but this is a young pitcher who has a 2.81 ERA over his first 27 big league starts. Hopefully he gets right soon.
Matt Barnes (RP - BOS)
Mon, Mar 22
Player Note on Matt Barnes (RP - BOS)
Red Sox manager Alex Cora wants to name a closer this year. The last time he managed was in 2019 when Boston infamously used a closer-by-committee approach. It was a disaster. Barnes' 2020 could also be viewed as a disaster, though, so why should fantasy managers be willing to buy back in this year? Like many players, Barnes talked about how it was tough to build up for the shortened season. He then finished the year on a roll, securing 9-of-12 save chances with a 3.38 ERA after Brandon Workman was traded. Barnes is underrated in terms of K/9, and he struggles with control at times, but he's the favorite to lead the Red Sox in saves this season.
Cody Bellinger (1B,CF,RF - LAD)
Mon, Mar 22
Player Note on Cody Bellinger (1B,CF,RF - LAD)
Bellinger has begun playing in spring games, so concerns over his offseason shoulder surgery have lessened. Now it's time to figure out if we can rely on him as a fantasy star following an underwhelming 2020. It's worth noting that Bellinger finished strong, posting a 12.5% barrel-rate over his final 37 contests. This was very close to the 13% barrel-rate mark from his MVP-winning 2019. Over these final 37 games Bellinger hit 10 homers with a .960 OPS. 2019 could very well go down as the best season of his career, but that doesn't mean Bellinger can't be a fantasy star for years to come. Don't let him fall too late into Round 2 come draft day.
Hyun Jin Ryu (SP - TOR)
Mon, Mar 22
Player Note on Hyun Jin Ryu (SP - TOR)
Ryu fits well on certain roto builds. His elite ERA and WHIP numbers give fantasy managers a very strong base at those rate stats. It's much easier to find high-upside strikeout arms later in drafts, which pair well with Ryu's floor. Over the past three seasons only Jacob deGrom (2.10) has a lower ERA than Ryu (2.30).
Paul Goldschmidt (1B - STL)
Mon, Mar 22
Player Note on Paul Goldschmidt (1B - STL)
We might've written Goldschmidt's obituary too soon following 2019. His .417 OBP ranked seventh in baseball, which highlighted a trend of the former Diamondback chasing less and less. Goldy's chase rate dropped from 28.4% to 22.5% in 2020. His average exit velocity has dropped but his max exit velocity has remained consistent. All of this combined with the arrival of Nolan Arenado should have fantasy managers excited about the discount Goldschmidt can be had at.
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