Kelly Kirby

Where do you draft the superstar who will only play half the season at most? If you have the IL spots, his current ADP of around 130 makes sense. Even with his torn UCL last season, he still slashed .286/.364/.514 and powered the Phillies to the World Series. The biggest downside is that he most likely does not have OF eligibility in your league, so make sure your UTIL slot is free for him.

Daniel Bard saved 34 saves for the hapless Colorado Rockies last year, and they rewarded him with a two-year extension. Fantasy managers should trust that he will get first crack at saving games, but they should also be aware that the 37-year-old benefited from a career-low .221 BABIP. While this is due to correct, it shouldn't scare you off from making him a top reliever on your squad.

Alexis Diaz is already named the official closer for the Reds, which isn't a testament to his RP prowess, considering Cinci is going nowhere fast. His Statcast page jumps at you with his strikeout ability and limiting hard contact. However, his BB% also stands out for being in the 2nd percentile. Don't get blinded by his 1.84 ERA from last year, either. His xFIP was 3.97, and he hands out free passes like a new business in a strip mall. Make sure your ratios are protected before drafting him for saves.

In 2022, Sandy Alcantara had Jacob deGrom on speed dial to discuss coping strategies for receiving little to no run support during a dominant pitching season. He had nine NDs, giving up an average of 1.5 earned runs while pitching more than six innings in all but one. Beyond that, Alcantara threw 228 innings with a 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 207 strikeouts, winning the NL Cy Young with all 30 first-place votes. The 27-year-old demonstrated an easy delivery, and the Marlins demonstrated comfort in letting him go deep into ballgames. The concerns with Alcantara are related to over-drafting him coming off his career year and an xFIP that was an entire run above his ERA. He does not overpower hitters, but they struggle to make good contact against his three-pitch mix. He deserves a high draft pick - just recognize some slight regression may be on the horizon.

Ke'Bryan Hayes might have some good power hiding inside his offensive toolbox, but if you draft him for steals and batting average help, you'll feel much better about him in your lineup. He is an injury risk after playing in 136 last year and only 96 the year before. We have no illusions that Pittsburgh's lineup is going to boost any of his numbers, but 20 steals from 3B later in the draft is nothing to sneeze at.

Raise your hand if you cursed at and/or traded Bo Bichette prior to the All-Star Break last season! He ended the first half with 14 HR, five SB (out of 10 attempts), and a slash line of .259/.301/.430. He looked lost in a lineup that should have been a bastion of productivity, and fantasy managers everywhere panicked. The 24-year-old responded by slashing .329/.370/.521 with 10 HR and eight SB (out of 10 attempts). That second-half stat line was much closer to his career average, and he still bats in a high-octane lineup that should drive his counting stats back to the 25/15 range without harming your ratios. While he may not be a slam dunk high-round pick, his upside makes him worthy of his ADP.

If you ask a fantasy analyst who the Twins' closer will be this season, the most common answer will be, "Well, we know who it SHOULD be." Jhoan Duran falls into the category of "too good to be a closer." By that, we mean that chances are good that Minnesota will use him in high-leverage situations, no matter which late inning that might be. With a K% in the 96th percentile, the 25-year-old will be one of the Top 3 RP without a clear path to saves taken off the board. He's going about 80 spots before Jorge Lopez, the actual closer, and handcuffing them isn't the worst idea.

The bad news for Nick Castellanos was a 46-point drop in his batting average in 2022. Other bad news includes a Statcast page that is almost entirely blue, meaning he was ineffective in almost every meaningful statistical category during his first season in Philadelphia. He is not projected to be quite as much of a disaster in 2023 - his HR total should creep back above 20 instead of 13 - but a 20/70/70/5 guy with a .260 batting average and low OBP isn't someone you have to reach for in a draft.