Kevin Roberts
Breaking Football
Twitter: @BreakingKevin
Website: http://breakingfootball.com/
Player Note on Baker Mayfield (QB - CLE)
If not this week for Baker, then when?
Player Note on Ryan Finley (QB - CIN)
NFL debut against a solid defense that just slapped Tom Brady around? That's a big no thanks.
Player Note on Baker Mayfield (QB - CLE)
Buffalo isn't a defense to pick on and Baker just looks flat out bad. Naturally, he'll wreck, but I can't do it.
Player Note on Mitch Trubisky (QB - CHI)
Trubisky has an amazing matchup last week and flatlined. The laws of fantasy suggest he'll throw 5 touchdowns now, but I can't vouch for this sad sack.
Player Note on Dak Prescott (QB - DAL)
Vikes D isn't quite as imposing away from home and Dak is hot, but this isn't the spot to fall in love with him.
Player Note on Mason Rudolph (QB - PIT)
Rams D has looked nasty lately, so even at home Rudolph feels like a dicey play.
Player Note on Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB - MIA)
Fitzmagic was alive and well last week. Colts aren't an easy matchup on the road, but he should be throwing early and often. YOLO!
Player Note on Kyle Allen (QB - CAR)
Allen has flashed nice ability and Packers D has turned to mush. I'd rather just own C-Mac or play him in DFS, however.
Player Note on Sam Darnold (QB - NYJ)
The Ghost Man is so tough to gauge right now. Good matchup, but he's in his own head and that's problematic. I'd rather try the Giants D as a streaming option.
Player Note on Daniel Jones (QB - NYG)
The Jets are horrid, so this could be a nice spot for Danny Dimes to get it going again.
Player Note on Baker Mayfield (QB - CLE)
If not this week for Baker, then when?
Player Note on Ryan Finley (QB - CIN)
NFL debut against a solid defense that just slapped Tom Brady around? That's a big no thanks.
Player Note on Baker Mayfield (QB - CLE)
Buffalo isn't a defense to pick on and Baker just looks flat out bad. Naturally, he'll wreck, but I can't do it.
Player Note on Mitch Trubisky (QB - CHI)
Trubisky has an amazing matchup last week and flatlined. The laws of fantasy suggest he'll throw 5 touchdowns now, but I can't vouch for this sad sack.
Player Note on Dak Prescott (QB - DAL)
Vikes D isn't quite as imposing away from home and Dak is hot, but this isn't the spot to fall in love with him.
Player Note on Mason Rudolph (QB - PIT)
Rams D has looked nasty lately, so even at home Rudolph feels like a dicey play.
Player Note on Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB - MIA)
Fitzmagic was alive and well last week. Colts aren't an easy matchup on the road, but he should be throwing early and often. YOLO!
Player Note on Kyle Allen (QB - CAR)
Allen has flashed nice ability and Packers D has turned to mush. I'd rather just own C-Mac or play him in DFS, however.
Player Note on Sam Darnold (QB - NYJ)
The Ghost Man is so tough to gauge right now. Good matchup, but he's in his own head and that's problematic. I'd rather try the Giants D as a streaming option.
Player Note on Daniel Jones (QB - NYG)
The Jets are horrid, so this could be a nice spot for Danny Dimes to get it going again.
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Featured Pros: NFL Lottery Tickets
Name one under-the-radar RB that you plan to target in all drafts as a late-round lottery ticket and why?
There are admittedly not many options at RB beyond the 150 overall cut-off, but the main one I'd be looking at is Chris Carson. The Seahawks were terrible on the ground last year and need to figure that part of their offense out, while there is no guarantee rookie rusher Rashaad Penny is the answer. That could instead by Carson, who flashed ability as a rookie last year. Pete Carroll has already raved about him this summer, too, so in an open competition, we need to consider him as a viable late-round flier.
Name one under-the-radar WR that you plan to target in all drafts as a late-round lottery ticket and why?
I feel like Michael Gallup is a popular under the radar wide receiver in the fantasy football community, so I'll shift my focus to someone else I'm really excited about: Mike Williams. Injuries bogged down his rookie season last year, but the Clemson product is finally 100% and has the size and ball skills to turn into a beast in L.A.'s system. Keenan Allen is rightfully the top Bolts wide receiver to draft, but with Hunter Henry going down, this offense promises to feature more 3-wide sets and that opens the door to serious upside for Williams.
There are admittedly not many options at RB beyond the 150 overall cut-off, but the main one I'd be looking at is Chris Carson. The Seahawks were terrible on the ground last year and need to figure that part of their offense out, while there is no guarantee rookie rusher Rashaad Penny is the answer. That could instead by Carson, who flashed ability as a rookie last year. Pete Carroll has already raved about him this summer, too, so in an open competition, we need to consider him as a viable late-round flier.
Name one under-the-radar WR that you plan to target in all drafts as a late-round lottery ticket and why?
I feel like Michael Gallup is a popular under the radar wide receiver in the fantasy football community, so I'll shift my focus to someone else I'm really excited about: Mike Williams. Injuries bogged down his rookie season last year, but the Clemson product is finally 100% and has the size and ball skills to turn into a beast in L.A.'s system. Keenan Allen is rightfully the top Bolts wide receiver to draft, but with Hunter Henry going down, this offense promises to feature more 3-wide sets and that opens the door to serious upside for Williams.
Featured Pros: Dynasty Undervalued Players
Which running back is currently the most undervalued in our latest dynasty rankings?
Joe Mixon. He may have had character concerns going into last year's draft, but there was never any denying this kid's talent. With Jeremy Hill out of the picture, this explosive young talent is headed for a huge role and potentially years of a feature back role. He only flashed his elite ability as a rookie, but the upside is mouth-watering.
Which wide receiver is currently the most undervalued in our latest dynasty rankings?
Adam Thielen. I'm not sure what this guy needs to do to get everyone's respect. He's an explosive talent that can also rack up receptions, making him a viable threat in all formats. The season he had in 2017 with Case Keenum (91-1,276-4) was special, but just think of his upside with a QB upgrade in Kirk Cousins.
Which quarterback is currently the most undervalued in our latest dynasty rankings?
Derek Carr. If you're thinking about 2018 and the future, how is Carr the 14th best option? Carr has proven to be a true gamer when healthy and he's got a star studded cast around him with Amari Cooper and Martavis Bryant leading the way. The arrival of Jon Gruden has been met with skepticism, but this is still a guy that helped Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson to career years.
Joe Mixon. He may have had character concerns going into last year's draft, but there was never any denying this kid's talent. With Jeremy Hill out of the picture, this explosive young talent is headed for a huge role and potentially years of a feature back role. He only flashed his elite ability as a rookie, but the upside is mouth-watering.
Which wide receiver is currently the most undervalued in our latest dynasty rankings?
Adam Thielen. I'm not sure what this guy needs to do to get everyone's respect. He's an explosive talent that can also rack up receptions, making him a viable threat in all formats. The season he had in 2017 with Case Keenum (91-1,276-4) was special, but just think of his upside with a QB upgrade in Kirk Cousins.
Which quarterback is currently the most undervalued in our latest dynasty rankings?
Derek Carr. If you're thinking about 2018 and the future, how is Carr the 14th best option? Carr has proven to be a true gamer when healthy and he's got a star studded cast around him with Amari Cooper and Martavis Bryant leading the way. The arrival of Jon Gruden has been met with skepticism, but this is still a guy that helped Rich Gannon and Brad Johnson to career years.
Featured Pros: Way Too Early NFL Overvalued Players
What QB is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings and why?
Drew Brees. It seems like Brees is still living off of his big name and past production. The Saints have completely changed how they run their offense, plus this is an aging passer who isn't even under contract at the moment. He was the 9th best fantasy QB a year ago and it's quite possible his fantasy ranking continues to decline in 2018.
What RB is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings and why?
Devonta Freeman. Running backs seem to always hit a wall when handed fat contracts and Freeman either struggled with consistency or health in 2017. He under-performed and still finished as fantasy football's 13th best rusher, but that's not where you drafted him to end up. He's now being valued as the #10 back and while he could hit that, last year was proof he might not be as rock solid as we all once thought.
What WR is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings and why?
A.J. Green. I personally love Green, but he's been held back by Andy Dalton for years. Dalton does often have tunnel vision for his top target, but Green fizzled due to injuries in 2016 and last year finished 10th despite logging a full 16 games. I still think he's a threat to finish there again, but he's slowly losing steam in a very loaded wide receiver position. I'm not sure you're getting the elite value you used to at his current #6 spot.
Drew Brees. It seems like Brees is still living off of his big name and past production. The Saints have completely changed how they run their offense, plus this is an aging passer who isn't even under contract at the moment. He was the 9th best fantasy QB a year ago and it's quite possible his fantasy ranking continues to decline in 2018.
What RB is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings and why?
Devonta Freeman. Running backs seem to always hit a wall when handed fat contracts and Freeman either struggled with consistency or health in 2017. He under-performed and still finished as fantasy football's 13th best rusher, but that's not where you drafted him to end up. He's now being valued as the #10 back and while he could hit that, last year was proof he might not be as rock solid as we all once thought.
What WR is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings and why?
A.J. Green. I personally love Green, but he's been held back by Andy Dalton for years. Dalton does often have tunnel vision for his top target, but Green fizzled due to injuries in 2016 and last year finished 10th despite logging a full 16 games. I still think he's a threat to finish there again, but he's slowly losing steam in a very loaded wide receiver position. I'm not sure you're getting the elite value you used to at his current #6 spot.
Against the Spread: Super Bowl Picks
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-4.5)
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5)
The Eagles might not win, but they're that rare underdog that probably would have been the favorite had Carson Wentz not been lost for the year. The Patriots rarely win Super Bowls by a wide margin, so history could repeat itself here. Philly has the defense and running game to keep this close and the rest depends on whether or not Nick Foles can avoid a face-plant.
Game: Will the combined score be over or under 48 points?
Pick: Over
Game: What will the total combined points be at the end of the game?
Pick: 51
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5)
The Eagles might not win, but they're that rare underdog that probably would have been the favorite had Carson Wentz not been lost for the year. The Patriots rarely win Super Bowls by a wide margin, so history could repeat itself here. Philly has the defense and running game to keep this close and the rest depends on whether or not Nick Foles can avoid a face-plant.
Game: Will the combined score be over or under 48 points?
Pick: Over
Game: What will the total combined points be at the end of the game?
Pick: 51
Against the Spread: Conference Round Picks
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+9)
I like the Pats to win, but the Jaguars seem very much for real. They could absolutely stage a second straight upset, but even if they don't, I doubt New England runs away with this one, either.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-3)
I'm sure this game is relatively close and the Eagles have the edge at home, but I can't quit the Vikings. Not only do they come off as a team of destiny (especially after last week) but again, I say, I can't bring myself to trust Nick Foles. Minnesota has the better overall defense and unlike last week, I think they win this one a little easier.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+9)
I like the Pats to win, but the Jaguars seem very much for real. They could absolutely stage a second straight upset, but even if they don't, I doubt New England runs away with this one, either.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-3)
I'm sure this game is relatively close and the Eagles have the edge at home, but I can't quit the Vikings. Not only do they come off as a team of destiny (especially after last week) but again, I say, I can't bring myself to trust Nick Foles. Minnesota has the better overall defense and unlike last week, I think they win this one a little easier.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)
Against the Spread: Divisional Round Picks
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-3)
I don't trust Nick Foles, plain and simple. Philly has all the tools necessary to keep this tight, but the Falcons should be able to exploit their one main weakness - their pass defense. Ultimately, Foles won't be able to keep up and his mistakes will end what was originally a promising season in Philly.
Game: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Pick: New England Patriots (-13.5)
The Titans were dead in the water before the Chiefs went all Chiefs on us. I didn't see that coming and if Tennessee shocks with a win or by beating the spread, I'll tip my cap and move along. The Pats are understandably massive favorites at home and you have to think the Big 3 in New England would love to score a huge win to end all of this "rift" chatter. I see the Pats flat out rolling here.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)
I don't think the Jags win, but three things could be huge factors; this is probably the best defense in the league, Pittsburgh's defense takes a hit with Ryan Shazier gone and Antonio Brown might not be 100%. There's also the demons Big Ben needs to deal with after tossing 5 picks against this team earlier this year. Blake Bortles isn't any good, but this spread is a slap in the face for this Jax D.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (+4.5)
Again, I love that we're picking ATS here, because I'm not sold the Saints get away with a win. However, they've proven all year they can win in just about any fashion and they certainly FEEL like a title threat right now. Minnesota has increasingly looked a little less imposing with Case Keenum running the offense, too. That week one thrashing by the Vikes seems distant and I think this game is decided by a late FG, one way or another.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-3)
I don't trust Nick Foles, plain and simple. Philly has all the tools necessary to keep this tight, but the Falcons should be able to exploit their one main weakness - their pass defense. Ultimately, Foles won't be able to keep up and his mistakes will end what was originally a promising season in Philly.
Game: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Pick: New England Patriots (-13.5)
The Titans were dead in the water before the Chiefs went all Chiefs on us. I didn't see that coming and if Tennessee shocks with a win or by beating the spread, I'll tip my cap and move along. The Pats are understandably massive favorites at home and you have to think the Big 3 in New England would love to score a huge win to end all of this "rift" chatter. I see the Pats flat out rolling here.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)
I don't think the Jags win, but three things could be huge factors; this is probably the best defense in the league, Pittsburgh's defense takes a hit with Ryan Shazier gone and Antonio Brown might not be 100%. There's also the demons Big Ben needs to deal with after tossing 5 picks against this team earlier this year. Blake Bortles isn't any good, but this spread is a slap in the face for this Jax D.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Pick: New Orleans Saints (+4.5)
Again, I love that we're picking ATS here, because I'm not sold the Saints get away with a win. However, they've proven all year they can win in just about any fashion and they certainly FEEL like a title threat right now. Minnesota has increasingly looked a little less imposing with Case Keenum running the offense, too. That week one thrashing by the Vikes seems distant and I think this game is decided by a late FG, one way or another.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Against the Spread: Wild Card Picks
Game: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
I just don't trust the Titans. Getting a win at Arrowhead is also ridiculously difficult, while Andy Reid and co. eventually have to find some real success in the playoffs. I doubt a forever struggling Marcus Mariota is going to keep them from doing that for at least round one. If this game was in Tennessee I'd consider it staying close, but I think the Chiefs win this one easily.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+5)
The Rams have proven all year long that they're the better team, but the Falcons were in the Super Bowl a year ago and have the ability to hang with anyone. I can see the Rams winning in the end, but they're still a very young team with very little playoff experience. Trusting Jared Goff in his playoff debut doesn't come easy, either.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
I have a very weird feeling that Blake Bortles could implode and that the Bills continue their magical ride. But that's fairytale nonsense if we look at this logically. Instead, the Bills are a one-dimensional sinking ship that lucked their way into this game. Rattling Bortles is their ticket, but scoring on the Jags and/or stopping Leonard Fournette could be their downfall.
Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Pick: Carolina Panthers (+6)
It is never easy to take a team down for the third time in one year, but the Saints will be tasked with doing precisely that. I think Drew Brees and co. get the job done at home, but this time they're going to get a hard fight from the Panthers. Cam Newton can still ball and Carolina's defense isn't a pushover unit. A field goal should decide this one.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
I just don't trust the Titans. Getting a win at Arrowhead is also ridiculously difficult, while Andy Reid and co. eventually have to find some real success in the playoffs. I doubt a forever struggling Marcus Mariota is going to keep them from doing that for at least round one. If this game was in Tennessee I'd consider it staying close, but I think the Chiefs win this one easily.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5)
Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+5)
The Rams have proven all year long that they're the better team, but the Falcons were in the Super Bowl a year ago and have the ability to hang with anyone. I can see the Rams winning in the end, but they're still a very young team with very little playoff experience. Trusting Jared Goff in his playoff debut doesn't come easy, either.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5)
I have a very weird feeling that Blake Bortles could implode and that the Bills continue their magical ride. But that's fairytale nonsense if we look at this logically. Instead, the Bills are a one-dimensional sinking ship that lucked their way into this game. Rattling Bortles is their ticket, but scoring on the Jags and/or stopping Leonard Fournette could be their downfall.
Game: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Pick: Carolina Panthers (+6)
It is never easy to take a team down for the third time in one year, but the Saints will be tasked with doing precisely that. I think Drew Brees and co. get the job done at home, but this time they're going to get a hard fight from the Panthers. Cam Newton can still ball and Carolina's defense isn't a pushover unit. A field goal should decide this one.
Which game pick are you most confident with?
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
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