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Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SS - SD
Age: 20Bats: RThrows: R

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The Padres presented fans a pleasant surprise by including Tatis on their Opening Day roster. Arguably MLB's best prospect behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the 20-year-old shortstop looked more than ready for the limelight with 22 homers, 16 steals, and a .317/.379/.590 slash line in 84 games. It was going to be tough to keep hitting well over .300 with a 29.6% K rate and .410 BABIP, we may not get a chance to see if he can keep defying regression. He went on the injured list August 16 with a back strain, and manager Andy Green said the young phenom will likely miss the rest of the season.

It is easy to get excited about a guy who went for 14/14 homers/steals and batted .340 through his first third of a season. Let's try to remember the precautionary tales like Michael Chavis, though. What's more, is that Statcast suggests no one in baseball has been luckier that Tatis so far.

After missing a month with a strained hamstring, Tatis still has few enough at-bats that there is quite a bit of statistical noise in his season-long numbers. It's clear that Tatis already possesses legit power and speed, but he's had some very fortunate batted ball results so far. According to Statcast, Tatis has the single-biggest differential in baseball between his batting average and expected batting average, as well as the fourth-biggest differential between his slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage. It's not surprising that Tatis is striking out a lot at age 20, but it does mean that his batting average could plummet over the rest of 2019 as his batted ball results normalize.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

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