AJ Dillon

Do you remember that brief time period earlier this off-season when it seemed like AJ Dillon was destined to be the lead RB in Green Bay? Yeah, that didn't last long. With Aaron Jones re-signing, Dillon moves back to a backup RB role that should certainly see some more work than what he did in 2020. With Jones healthy, it's difficult to see a path for how Dillon returns weekly fantasy value. However, he holds immense upside as an insurance RB if something were to happen to Jones. My Very Early Projection: 133-623-5 rushing & 14-101-0 receiving.

We've watched Jamaal Williams get 226 carries and 80 targets in 28 games under Matt LaFleur, and he wasn't someone this regime drafted in the second round. That amounts to 10.9 touches per game, which is enough for most running backs to be considered a flex-type start. The issue with Dillon is that he's not likely going to be involved in the passing game, as Aaron Jones is a far superior receiver, and the Packers do throw quite a bit on the goal-line when Aaron Rodgers is under center. Dillon is essentially someone who's a touchdown-dependent flex option most weeks, but offers legitimate RB1 upside if Jones were to miss any time.

The market implied future hit rate for AJ Dillon as a rookie: 51%. The current market implied future hit rate for AJ Dillon: 65%. @McNamaraDynasty
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