Chris Herndon IV

Chris Herndon IV

TE - NYJ
Height: 6' 4"Weight: 253 lbsAge: 23

2019 Outlook

Strength of Schedule
TE Rank: 7th (easy)
Draft Rank (ECR) #181
Best / Worst #105 / #291
ADP #201

Ownership

 
Yahoo
20%
 
ESPN
9%
 
FanDuel
 
DraftKings

Herndon missing 4 games scares me. Gase did not use the TE position much in Miami, and the offense will need to work without him for the first quarter of the season. It may take some time before Herndon is really back into the action offensively, but has the chance to have a solid second half.

As I get closer to my own draft, I'm lowering Herndon even more. He's suspended 4 games and has a Week 4 bye. He'll be on the waiver wire during his bye week. If you really want him, just wait til then. He won't be playing before then anyway.

Did Herndon make a splash during his rookie season? Yes, he did. Does that mean it'll continue in year two? No. The offense has been completely overhauled, starting up top with the head coach Adam Gase, who turned Mike Gesicki into an afterthought in fantasy, though many experts had him as the top tight end in last year's class. The Jets also added Jamison Crowder and Le'Veon Bell, two players who'll take targets away from Herndon over the middle of the field. Gase's offense has produced less than 58 plays in two of his last three seasons and the Jets are likely to play solid defense with a ball-control style offense. That doesn't add up to much for last year's promising rookie

The Jets offense actually looks decent this year. It doesn't mean they will be, but at least there's a chance. We saw flashes of what they're capable of last season, but this year I expect them to take a step forward. Sam Darnold was PFF's top rated QB over the final 4 weeks of the season, which was when he returned from injury. Herndon was also their 7th rated TE over that same stretch. He posted a 39/502/3 stat line in his rookie season. That might not seem like a good stat line…but it's also through just 14 games…and still ranked as the TE 15. Also rookie TE's never do well, as it's a notoriously difficult position for young players. This is how good his rookie year was. Since 1975 just 2 other TE's have ever posted that stat line or better in their rookie season at age 22 or younger. Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski...that's it. Herndon has absolutely no one behind him on the depth chart and we saw towards the end of last season that he's going to be an every down TE. In fact, not many people know this, but Herndon lined up in the slot on 22% of his snaps last season, including 37% from weeks 13 on. Take the discount on Herndon and pray that others don't catch on.

Herndon was fine as a rookie in 2018, but let's stop pretending that he is an all-world talent ready to become elite this season. The only reason he stood out was because the Jets' had no pass catchers. Herndon only reached double-digit points three times and never eclipsed 14 points in a game.