Henry Ruggs III
WR - LV
This new Raiders offence has a lot of weapons. Josh Jacobs will do most of the hard work on the ground and that's the key to this offence but through the air there are targets aplenty. Darren Waller, Tyrell Williams, Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, Hunter Renfrow, Lynn Bowden, Jalen Richard and Devontae Booker will all have a chance to be involved so that really limits the upside for the rookie deep threat. The news that Ruggs may start in the slot gives him far more upside but as a rookie, he's still likely to be limited in his rookie season.
He was the first wide receiver off the board and now goes to a team where there's plenty of opportunity available. Ruggs isn't a wide receiver who should demand anywhere close to 120-plus targets, but knowing the equity used to acquire him, he should have no issue approaching the 100 target mark, which puts him on the WR3/4 radar, as he has game-breaking upside.
You know the Raiders are excited about Ruggs, drafting him as the first receiver off the board. It's going to be tough for any rookie receiver to succeed this year given the lack of preseason games, but Ruggs is in a good situation all things considered. His incredible speed (he scored a touchdown on a quarter of his receptions in college) should play well with Derek Carr, so there should be plenty of short routes where Ruggs can simply let his wheels do the work after the catch. In other words, chemistry with Carr may not be quite as important as it would be with other rookie wide receivers given Ruggs' likely low average depth of target, so he's an ideal bench receiver to stash and see what he can do early in the year.
Henry Ruggs going first off the board was a bit of a shocker to the Las Vegas Raiders, but he fits this offense perfectly and will step in and assume the Tyrell Williams role. This offense now has a bit more competition for targets than it did last year, but Ruggs is still going to have an impact for fantasy football. He won't be a steady week in and week out contributor, most likely, but he's someone you can plug into your lineup every week to bring tremendous upside. His pre-draft ranking in my system of WR2 has him still up here towards the top of the board.
Derek Carr on attempts 20+ yards: 18/48 568 yards, 4TDs Ranks among QBs that started at least 4 games Deep% - 30th, percentage of targets attempted 20 yards or more downfield DATT - 25th ADJ% - 17th the % of aimed passes thrown on target (completions + drops / aimed) Passer Rating - 17th
21yo - After studying tape, I can see why the Tyreek Hill comparisons continue to come in. Almost feels dirty having Ruggs this low, but there is some downside risk here, but the upside is enormous.
1.12 raiders - wr5
Upside will be there quickly, but consistency may be an issue early on
I wasn't high on Ruggs' fantasy outlook pre-draft and I'm not enamored with him now. He is a big play waiting to happen, but Derek Carr isn't a deep ball thrower. But Ruggs' draft capital and likely the No. 1 option in Las Vagas keeps him from dropping too much.
One note for me on Draft Props. It does not matter if you think someone is good or bad, its about where you think they go. You can scream until you turn blue in the face that Henry Ruggs doesn't have a first round profile, but you're wasting your time and its not relevant. @EliotCrist
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