WR - CIN
Considering everyone believes Chase and Jefferson are a tier of their own, I am surprised how few people have Chase at one. Due to his injury last season, it is often overlooked that he averaged more targets and touchdowns per game and 0.2 fewer receptions per game than Jefferson. If one of these two is going to score 12+ touchdowns, I'm betting it's Chase, making him my WR-one this season.
Chase's ADOT dropped by almost three yards from his freshman to sophomore years in the NFL. I wonder if this will continue to be the case in 2023. Chase is a dominant force downfield but a lot like Tyreek Hill his offense might need him to use his speed while running shorter routes. Leading to more catches and added PPR value.
I fully expect Justin Jefferson to be the consensus No. 1 wide receiver, but Ja'Marr Chase will be right on his heels as the No. 2. Chase led all WRs in red-zone targets per game (28 in 14 games played) and expected fantasy half-PPR points per game (16.4). Therefore, he's an extremely strong bet to finish No. 1 in red-zone targets and receiving touchdowns in 2023. His 22 receiving touchdowns through his first two seasons are the most by any WR since Odell Beckham Jr. In the games that Chase was healthy this year, he also posted a superior target share (30% vs. 28%) and identical air yards share (39%) to Jefferson. All things being considered, Chase also has a quarterback that could easily throw for 50 TDs. Kirk Cousins won't toss 40-plus touchdowns in this lifetime.
Chase followed up a stellar rookie campaign with a banner sophomore season. He was sixth in target share (29.3%), ninth in air yard share (36.6%), and the WR4 in fantasy points per game. Despite only playing 12 regular season games, he finished third in red zone targets and fourth in total touchdowns. Chase is a top-three fantasy receiver in 2023 and a locked-in top-five pick.
In PPR scoring, only OBJ had more fantasy points at WR than Chase through the first 29 games of an NFL career
Chase had 79 receptions for 960 yards and 8 TDs in the 2022 fantasy season, despite missing 4 fantasy games. He is still a young player that should stay health in 2023. If he plays 16 fantasy games, he should be an elite fantasy option.
Turned 23 in February. Chase has a clear connection with his QB Joe Burrow. We should expect about 150-170 targets per year, 100-120 receptions, 1600-1800 receiving yards, and around 15 TD's, in each of the next six years baring injury.