QB - CIN
Cincy started off last season with a slow-pace and run focused as Burrow was coming of an ACL injury. I expect them to come out firing rockets as there have been immense improvements in the offensive line and the schedule is much more difficult this season compared to last.
Joe Burrow finished the regular season as PFF's highest-graded passer (91.2) while also ranking first in super sticky stats like passing grade from a clean pocket (94.6) and passing grade throwing at the intermediate level (95.6). He finished the season as the QB8 averaging just north of 20.5 fantasy points per game.
The Bengals quarterback has undoubtedly entered the conversation as one of the league's best real-life NFL passers, but might be slightly overvalued based on early best ball ADP with impending regression. He's the QB6 despite finishing as a top-6 fantasy quarterback just thrice in 2021.
No quarterback scored more fantasy points over expectation, which hints that regression will hit Burrow in 2022. The LSU product also rushed for just 118 yards and two TDs. He rushed for fewer yards than Mac Jones, who is notorious for being ranked low across consensus due to his lack of upside as a rusher.
However, there is a legitimate path for Burrow's upside to be further unlocked if the Bengals increase their pass rate as they did during his rookie season and down the playoff stretch. Burrow led the NFL in passing attempts per game (40.4) during his rookie season and averaged 38 passing attempts/23.0 fantasy points per game in his final six weeks
An uptick in passing volume won't help Burrow's efficiency per se, but his fantasy numbers will be much more stable from week to week.
Also can't forget to mention the Bengals revamped their offensive line as they look to not let their franchise quarterback get sacked 70 times - 22 more than the next closest quarterback.
Cool Joe led the Bengals to their first Super Bowl since the 80's. And that was with a shoddy offensive line. Cincinnati wisely decided to invest in their offensive this past off-season to protect their star QB. With weapons like JaMarr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst, and Joe Mixon, along with more time in the pocket, Burrow could be in store for a career year.
Burrow had 4,611 passing yards and 34 passing TDs in the 2021 fantasy season and he should be poised for another monster year on one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL that helped lead the Bengals to a Super Bowl appearance. He should benefit from the Bengals signing three veteran offensive lineman in free agency, which was their biggest weakness on offense in 2021.
Volume on weeks when the Bengals have a big lead will certainly reduce Burrow's fantasy production, but there's too many weapons in the high-powered offense... He'll put up elite level numbers.
His line has improved from a Bottom-10 Unit to a potential Top-5 unit with an entirely new right side featuring La'El Collins, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras. This improvement cannot be understated - it's so huge.
In his second NFL season, Burrow averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Tom Brady never had a season with a YPA that high, and Aaron Rodgers has reached that number only once. And consider that when Burrow's marvelous season began, he was less than a year removed from surgery to repair a torn ACL and MCL. Burrow also has the superb young WR duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to make his job easier.
Kyler Murray QB-ARI
recommended by 76% of experts
Jalen Hurts QB-PHI
recommended by 71% of experts
Tom Brady QB-TB
recommended by 33% of experts
Russell Wilson QB-DEN
recommended by 24% of experts
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