Josh Allen

Allen turned in a clunker of a performance last week against the Colts and has laid eggs in two of his last three games, sandwiching a strong Week 10 performance against the Jets (366 yards, two TD passes) between a 264-yard, zero-TD, two-INT game in a 9-6 loss to the Jaguars and a 209-yard, two-TD, two-INT showing in a 41-15 loss to the Colts. He'll try to bounce back against the Saints' Jekyll-and-Hyde pass defense, which has been all over the map this season. The Saints rank fifth in the league in opponent passer rating, yet they're giving up 22.1 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the second-highest total in the league. The Saints smothered Aaron Rodgers and harassed Mac Jones into three interceptions, but they also gave up 402 passing yards and two TD passes to Daniel Jones, and 342 passing yards and two TD passes to Matt Ryan. The Saints' pass defense ranks 14th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, and maybe that's the best way of viewing it - as a neutral matchup. Allen is the QB2 this week. Considering that Allen has topped 300 yards only once in his last four games and hasn't thrown more than two TD passes in any of his last four games, he's a fade at a pricey $7,800 on DraftKings.

The Saints are just 31st against fantasy quarterbacks over the last 5 weeks. Allen looks like he should have elite QB1 value in a great matchup.