Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert has abundant arm talent and the mobility to add rushing value, so fantasy managers were expecting him to take another step forward last season in his third year as a starter. Instead, Herbert took a step backward, with significant declines in his yardage per game, yardage per attempt and touchdown rate. He ran for only 147 yards and didn't have a single TD run. In Herbert's defense, he gutted it out through a rib cartilage fracture sustained in an early-season Thursday-night game vs. the Chiefs, and Herbert's top two receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, both missed time with injuries. The Chargers have jettisoned oft-criticized offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, replacing him with Kellen Moore. Herbert remains one of the toolsiest quarterbacks in the league and will likely produce much-improved fantasy numbers in 2023.

2/8 Update: Loss of Keenan would suck, but Kellen Moore is the BEST possible OC Hire. Loves to sling deep, commanded Top-2 attacks for the majority of his playcalling time in DAL. Love this move for Herbs.

Herbert was not Herbert in 2022 - injuries to weapons, bad coaching, rib injury. He could easily turn this around and return to his 2021 form averaging 23.3 ppg...but at his best that's more of a #5 QB with the amount of rushing QBs that have upped their game. They will have a new offensive scheme this year and his weapons are still older with injury concerns. I'm not drafting him at his ceiling.

Herbert's 4,739 passing yards were fantastic, but his 25 TD passes were a little lower than fantasy managers had hoped for entering the year. He is still a very solid QB1, but probably not in the very elite tier.