TE - GB
One of the top pass-catching tight ends in a loaded rookie TE class, Luke Musgrave should have a significant 2023 role with the Packers, who had bare cupboards at the position before the draft. Musgrave is a big target (6-6, 253) and runs like a gazelle (4.61). He has the inside track to start for the Packers right away, but it's not a slam dunk. Green Bay also drafted TE Tucker Kraft in the third round, and Kraft is a good prospect himself.
Luke Musgrave's intriguing raw athleticism needs to translate to the field more. People will fawn over his testing metrics, but the sad thing is he is only a gym shorts hype machine. Musgrave managed only two missed tackles forced and 3.8 yards after the catch per reception in his collegiate career. These numbers are dreadful. Musgrave is a catch-and-fall down tight end. Musgrave can get knocked off his routes by physical linebackers easily. His lack of play strength also shows up at the catch point and in the blocking department. Musgrave secured only 38.9% of his contested targets in college. He is a matador in blocking. At this point, he lacks the tenacity required to become even an average blocker. He looks like a player just going through the motions when blocking as he engages passively with oncoming defenders. He rarely anchors well and never drives a defender back. Musgrave does flash an impressive burst off the line with the speed to stretch the seam. His route running is raw at this juncture, but he does have fluid hips that allow him to turn on a dime. His catch radius is solid, especially when asked to adjust to shoestring targets.
You have to look beyond the box score to find what makes Luke Musgrave special. Because the Oregon State tight end posted just a 4% dominator rating in four years playing college ball. He maxed out at 22 catches as a junior. COVID knocked out his 2020 season, and in 2022 he was sidelined with a knee injury. But there's reason to believe that Musgrave would have been a monster this year had he fully stayed healthy. He was exactly that for two games, compiling 11 catches for 169 receiving yards with a 30% target share over the first two weeks of this past season. Based on his uber-athletism, NFL teams and fantasy managers can expect the 6-foot-6 and 253-pound tight end to produce at a much higher level than he did in the college ranks. At the NFL Combine, he posted the following numbers: 4.61 40-yard dash (88th percentile), 36-inch vertical (83rd percentile) and 125 inches broad jump (94th percentile). He's expected to be drafted within the first two rounds of the real NFL Draft, giving him an opportunity to hit the ground running.
Musgrave entered the season on the Mackey watch list, but his senior season was cut short to only two games due to a knee injury. In those two games he went: 6-89-1 and 5-80-0.