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MarShawn Lloyd

MarShawn Lloyd

RB - Green Bay Packers

Height: 5' 9"Weight: 220 lbsAge: 23College: USC

2024 Outlook

Strength of Schedule
RB Rank: 32nd (hard)
Draft Rank (ECR) #161
Best / Worst #120 / #319
ADP #144

Roster %

 
Yahoo
0%
 
ESPN
18%
 
FanDuel
 
DraftKings

Unless you've been living under a rock, you're probably already aware that MarShawn Lloyd was one of my man crushes throughout the NFL Draft cycle. While his landing spot has turned many off, I'm not fazed. Will Josh Jacobs be heavily involved weekly? Sure, but that doesn't mean that Lloyd is a zero or change-of-pace option only. Lloyd crushed every part of the predraft process after jumping off the stat sheet during his final two collegiate seasons. In each of those two years, he finished in the top 20 in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway percentage, and PFF elusive rating. Lloyd will quickly be a major factor in this backfield, with his main competition for touches (Josh Jacobs) hoping for a bounceback year. Last year, Jacobs struggled mightily to break tackles and create big plays as he ranked (among 49 qualifying backs last season per Fantasy Points Data) 41st in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. Lloyd is an RB3/4 who can easily out-kick his ADP this season.

MarShawn Lloyd made the move to USC in 2023 after spending his first three college seasons at South Carolina (redshirt freshman year after torn ACL). Although he posted the highest dominator rating of his career in 2022 at 18% in his final season as a Gamecock despite missing four games with an injury.
In his final and last season at USC, he posted a 15% dominator rating with nine TDs and 816 rushing yards.
Lloyd was one of the biggest risers during the 2024 Senior Bowl, which shouldn't go unnoticed. All-Star game performances influence draft capital, which can make or break some of these later-selected RBs.
However, this could end up being a potential pitfall, given Lloyd's yards per play at 2.4 is very poor compared to the rest of the class.
At 5-foot-9 and 220 pounds, Lloyd looks like a carbon copy of another former Senior Bowl RB riser - Dameon Pierce. And like Pierce, he comes with red flags of a poor overall dominator rating as a player who could never become the true featured RB in a college backfield.
Despite his strengths as a tackle-breaker (like Pierce), it might not be enough to truly vault him into consistent fantasy production if he can't stand out against other RBs. Again - like Pierce - Lloyd never surpassed 150 touches in any season, with only three games of 20+ touches. Also dealt with injuries consistently, which contributed to smaller workloads.
Lloyd posted the No. 1 elusive rating among his draft-eligible RBs in 2023, per PFF. Pierce ranked third in that category coming out of Florida two years ago. Still it's hard to ignore that a healthy Lloyd at 220 pounds with 4.46 wheels could easily be the 1A lead inside a weaker NFL backfield. That won't be the case in Green Bay.
And this Packers coaching staff has an unhealthy infatuation with A.J. Dillon. I'd like to assume Lloyd can easily supplant Dillon as the No. 2 RB, but he never totally dominated a college backfield. His yards per play (2.4) is very poor compared to the rest of the RB class. Lloyd never surpassed 150 touches in any season, with only three games of 20+ touches. He also dealt with injuries consistently, which contributed to smaller workloads. Eight fumbles aren't great for job security, either. I feel the Round 3/Day 2 draft capital is buoying Lloyd's fantasy value to some extent, but I'm not sure it's warranted.