Rico Dowdle

Despite his incredible efficiency and his standout performances this season, Dowdle took a back seat to Chuba Hubbard last week with a 43.5% snap rate, a 20.8% route share, and a 10% target share. Dowdle has outplayed Hubbard handily on a per-touch basis. Among 57 qualifying backs, Dowdle ranks 13th in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackle rate, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. Last week, Dowdle finished with 20 touches and 79 total yards, seeing a touch or a target on 20 of his 27 snaps played. That type of usage on a per-snap basis is difficult to maintain. You're threading a fine needle, so if Dowdle's snap count doesn't flip back in the other direction, he could become volatile, while on the surface it looked like he got an RB2-level workload in his last game. Dowdle is a strong flex and could be an RB2 this week (RB36 in Week 13). Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the tenth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-most yards before contact per attempt, and the third-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Hubbard 58.6% zone).

Per Next Gen Stats...the Panthers called a run play on 38 of 62 offensive plays (61.3%), their highest rate under coach Dave Canales back in Week 13.
Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard were effective on inside runs, averaging 4.2 yards per carry (19 carries for 80 yards) compared to 3.8 yards per carry on outside runs (16 carries for 61 yards). Hubbard recorded a season-high 6 first downs and generated +16 rushing yards over expected in the contest (Next Gen Stats).
Hubbard was on a heater in this game, and I do think he was the better of the two Panthers RBs. Scored early on a pass from Bryce Young. The camera also panned to Dowdle on the sideline, looking at his shoulder. But obviously, he was fine.
But Chuba Hubbard had the hot hand in Week 13 (58% snap share) - and that is concerning for Dowdle investors long term.
In Week 12, Rico Dowdle totaled just 10 touches to Chuba Hubbard's 7. Dowdle only played 65% of the snaps - his lowest mark since Week 8.
In Week 13, touches were 19-18 in favor of Hubbard. And he has already been playing more on third downs because of his proficient pass-protection.
If we are going back to a closer committee, Dowdle can't be trusted as a fantasy RB1 ROS, given some of the tougher matchups that include the Buccaneers and Seahawks. In the last four weeks, Dowdle has not finished higher than RB14 on the week. In fact, Dowdle only has one RB1 finish since Hubbard returned to the lineup in Week 7.
After a strong Hubbard showing...we might see this backfield go back to 50/50. Worked out in this last game for the Panthers.