Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

WR - KC
Height: 5' 10"Weight: 185 lbsAge: 24College: West AlabamaDrafted: #165 (5th Rd. by Kansas City)

2018 Outlook

Strength of Schedule:
32nd easiest for WRs
Draft Rank (ECR) #33
Best / Worst #10 / #72
ADP #29

Ownership

 
Yahoo
100%
 
ESPN
100%
 
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DraftKings

If you want to worry about new additions (WR Watkins) or big-play sustainability, that's your prerogative. I will happily take any discount you want to give me for the biggest home-run threat in the game

It's clear that Tyreek Hill is among the most efficient wide receivers in the game, as his 11.3 yards per target in 2017 ranked first in the league among those with 70 or more targets. Not just that, but the closest player to him was Marvin Jones at 10.3 YPT (a whopping 9 percent difference). That number came up quite a bit from his 2016 total that was at 7.1 yards per target, so you might want to dial back those large expectations. The addition of Sammy Watkins isn't going to help him gain a higher target share, either, as they paid Watkins a generous $50 million. As high as you might be on Pat Mahomes, it's going to be incredibly hard for him to top Alex Smith's MVP-caliber 2017 season. There's regression coming for Hill, but his price does not reflect that. If you can snag him in the fourth-round, that's when you should feel okay with the risk.

The fastest man in fantasy, Tyreek Hill paid handsomely those who drafted him, recording nearly 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns while adding in a punt return touchdown and some rushing yards from trick plays. Why then is Hill stuck at #14 on the rankings you ask? Two reasons: there's a new sheriff in Kansas City named Patrick Mahomes, and Brett Veach (the Chiefs GM, and yes I had to look it up) is coocoo for Cocoa Puffs. To go alongside the speedy Hill, Veach spent $48 million for three years of the perennially overrated Sammy Watkins. So not only does Hill now have to worry about forming a report with the rookie Mahomes, but he'll have Watkins and Chris Conley chomping at his heels for the targets that resident mad-man Travis Kelce doesn't get. Know the upside is real, but draft accordingly.

Hill had plenty of doubters coming into last season, but he proved that he could take on the role of a No. 1 receiver and thrive. He'll have Pat Mahomes as his quarterback this season, so there will be some more doubt cast on this upcoming season, but even if there are some major learning curves, Mahomes looks good enough to keep Hill as a strong fantasy receiver.

Hill handled more volume than anticipated with 75 receptions for 1,183 yards and seven TDs. Yet each score stretched at least 30 yards, as he vanished inside the red zone with two touches. Patrick Mahomes has the arm to make more deep magic, but he won't match Alex Smith's precision. Sammy Watkins will also threaten Hill's pedestrian 19.3 % target share, so don't touch the 5'10" playmaker at his bloated No. 29 overall ADP.

Last year, Tyreek Hill (WR8) became the ONLY receiver since 2000 to finish as a fantasy WR1 (top-12) while seeing fewer than 20% of team targets and fewer than 10% of red-zone targets in his WR1 single-season. @GrahamBarfield He's very good, but he also had as many red zone targets as Virgil Green last year. All of his touchdowns were 30+ yards. Incredibly hard to sustain what he did last year, let alone with another able pass-catcher in the offense now. @LateRoundQB Small, but fast as lightening in an offensive scheme that fits his athleticism. He benefits greatly from the addition of Watkins pulling away any shut-down corners. At 24 years old he should be able to hold value for many years.

Hill can take any touch to the house but Watkins being added and a big QB change could complicate matters

High risk, high reward

Last season, Tyreek broke out for 1,183 yards and 7 TDs, but he didn't catch a single red-zone TD. That can't last. Add in Sammy Watkins and downgrade from QB and we are looking at a major drop off in production from season to season.

Watkins will undoubtedly eat up some of his target share but the Chiefs promise to be much more explosive in 2018

Hill had a breakout year in his second season averaging 11.1 fantasy points per game. He could be even better if the Chiefs go with QB Patrick Mahomes II. While Mahomes II has little experience, he has a much stronger arm than QB Alex Smith and that could help Hill be an even better deep threat.