2010’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert

Posted by andrew on December, 30th 2010

The results are in! After painstakingly analyzing all 16 weeks of player rankings delivered by the experts, we’re officially ready to reveal who gave the most accurate advice in 2010. We did the math and the final results were compiled after analyzing over 1 million start/sit predictions across 40+ experts (see: methodology).

 

So what exactly is at stake for the experts? Well, the overall winner earns prestige, validation, bragging rights, a shiny gold trophy, and a check for $1,000,000. Ok, that last one is made up but you get the point: There’s a lot on the line.

 

Without further ado, here are the top fantasy football experts from 2010, based on overall accuracy for the RB, WR, QB, and TE positions:

 

2010 Top 5 Accuracy Results


#1: John Paulsen – The Scores Report (61.3% PAY™)

Was there any doubt that John Paulsen would finish on top as 2010’s Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert?! After leading the competition for an astounding 11 consecutive weeks, Paulsen held on in the final week of the season to take home the top prize. The key indicator of Paulsen’s dominance was that he was the only expert in the competition to rank in the top 10 for each of the 4 positions that factor into our overall scoring: WR (#1), RB (#3), QB (#10), TE (#1). Heck, he even finished as our #3 rated DST expert so you know he had the magic touch. Simply put, his player rankings were a one-stop destination for advice seekers looking for any kind help. And as a guy who helped so many people win their league titles, it’s certainly fitting to crown him as this year’s accuracy champ. Congrats, John!

 

#2: David Dodds – FootballGuys (60.4% PAY™)

If anyone wants proof that fantasy football prognostication requires more than just blind luck, they need look no further than the performance of David Dodds in our contests. With an engineering background, it’s a safe bet that Dodds applies a form of statistical analysis to drive his projections. And there’s no doubt that it’s working: He finished in the top 5 of our accuracy competition in 2009 and he’s back again as 2010’s runner-up. Most impressive is that he ended up as the #1 expert at rating RBs for both years. That’s not to say that Dodds only specializes in predicting RB performance, however. His projections also landed him as the 5th ranked QB prognosticator as well as the leading expert at ranking Kickers. All in all, Dodds has once again proven in 2010 that he’s one of the best in the industry when it comes to predicting fantasy football outcomes.

 

#3: Andy Behrens – Yahoo! Sports (60.2% PAY™)

Another expert that knows a thing or two about providing quality advice is Andy Behrens. Behrens was last year’s accuracy champ and he certainly proved that 2009 was no fluke. While he didn’t repeat as 2010’s contest winner, the 3rd place performance places him higher than the 90th percentile in this year’s field. As a testament to the consistency of his picks, Behrens resided in the top 5 of our leaderboard for 13 out of the 16 weeks during the season. In other words, he managed to avoid the peaks and valleys that are so common when predicting fantasy football results. And with his track record of reliability, it should come as no surprise that he rated well across the most important positions: WR (#4), RB (#5), and QB (#6). It’s this type of well-rounded advice that has made Behrens one of the go-to experts for anyone seeking start/sit recommendations.

 

#4: Josh Moore – 4for4.com (59.9% PAY™)

Perhaps no expert took a more circuitous route than Josh Moore to finish in the upper portion of the leaderboard (his twitter handle is @circulargenius, after all). Moore burst onto the scene as the #1 rated expert early in the season only to stumble out of the top 5 of the standings from weeks 6 – 13. He then followed this up with what was one of the strongest late season runs of any expert. Specifically, he delivered the highest rated advice in week 15 as well as the 2nd best set of player predictions in week 14. This performance was enough to push him back towards the top of the standings as the winner of the 4th place trophy. We can only hope that the subscribers at 4for4.com took advantage of Moore’s picks down the stretch because he was a fantasy playoff powerhouse.

 

#5: Site Rankings – Fantasy Football Nerd (59.8% PAY™)

When it comes to evaluating a diverse set of experts & sites, we think our bases are fairly well covered. Our contest includes a mix of human experts, computer generated projections and staff composite rankings. We even include the rankings of nerds; Or, at least, the Fantasy Football Nerd. For those unfamiliar, the Nerd attempts to poll the “wisdom of the crowd” by collecting the rankings from the industry’s top fantasy sites. They then generate consensus rankings by applying their own NerdRank algorithm that considers over 12 quality signals. Sounds complicated, right? To be honest, we have no idea how the process works. All we know is that the crowd was alive and well in 2010 because the Nerd’s aggregate rankings were good enough to place the site 5th overall in our contest. The best part is that their finest rankings were saved for when it counted most. Their advice was rated 2nd best in week 16 which may have proven once and for all that it takes a little nerd in all of us to win a fantasy football league title!


2010 Top Experts by Position

 

In addition to the overall results listed above, we also want to briefly highlight the top rated experts by position. Congratulations to the following experts for nailing down the best accuracy scores:

 

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Highest Rated Experts by Position
 Position  Expert  PAY™
 QB  Site Projections – Yahoo! Sports  66.7%
 RB  David Dodds – FootballGuys  63.3%
 WR  John Paulsen – The Scores Report  59.3%
 TE  John Paulsen – The Scores Report  60.8%
 K  David Dodds – FootballGuys  54.7%
 DST  Staff Composite – Yahoo! Sports  61.4%

This officially wraps up 2010’s accuracy contest. Congratulations again to John Paulsen (The Scores Report) for coming out on top as the highest rated expert. Kudos also to the rest of the experts that took part in the competition because they collectively represent the best that the fantasy football industry has to offer. And, of course, special thanks go to all of our readers for following along all season long as we tracked the expert’s picks. Your support is appreciated!

 

Lastly, keep in mind that you can visit our accuracy scores page if you’re interested in seeing how everyone in our field of over 40 experts stacks up against one another. The entire standings are offered at no cost to our registered members. Simply sign up for FREE and you’ll be able to view all of the accuracy scores. Thanks!

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