If there’s a common outcry we hear this time of the year it’s “Don’t read too much into Spring Training stats.”  You know the reasons for caution: (1) Pitchers take it easy while they build up their velocity, (2) Spring Training is a time of experimentation – new pitches, plate approaches, etc and (3) Both hitters & pitchers are just shaking off the rust.

You can’t argue too much with any of those points. After all, last year’s leader in Spring Training HRs (10) was the immortal Jake Fox. You know, the same Jake Fox that was demoted to the minor leagues by June 1st.

This doesn’t mean you can’t learn anything from Spring Training performances, however. Whether a player is showing signs of breaking out (Michael Morse last year) or an opportunity is emerging for a player, it is often possible to use Spring Training as a gauge to re-evaluate players.

That’s why, for this edition of Featured Pros, we’ve enlisted several top experts to give us their take on the players – both good & bad – that are standing out so far. Let’s take a look at who is rising and falling on their fantasy draft boards.

Risers & Fallers

*Note: We asked the experts to steer clear of naming players that are primarily moving up/down due to injuries

Q1: Now that we’ve seen players in action during Spring Training, which 2 guys are you moving up your rankings the most and why?

Steve Gardner – USA Today

Madison Bumgarner: 5.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 9 Ks, 1 BB

I’m moving Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner up in my pitcher rankings. It’s tough to base anything on Spring Training performances but Bumgarner has been very good this spring, especially the start I saw him pitch in Arizona against the Padres. He tossed three shutout innings, struck out five batters and pounded the strike zone. Coming off an excellent second half – and with an excellent home ballpark – the 22-year-old looks like he’s poised to take the next step in his development.

Yoenis Cespedes: 2-for-5, .400 BA, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SO

The other guy I’m moving up is outfielder Yoenis Cespedes of the A’s. I wasn’t sure how much time it would take him to get into playing shape or how easily he would make the transition from Cuba, but so far everything has gone well. He homered in his first official game and will continue to get plenty of exposure to high-quality pitching this spring. The A’s may not take him with them to Japan since he would likely benefit from staying at camp with the minor leaguers, but I think we’ll see him with the team and starting in left field when they come back.

Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires

Yu Darvish: 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3Ks, 0 BB

I wanted to see Yu Darvish pitch in spring training before making any real rankings and projections. In his Cactus League debut last week, Darvish threw two shutout innings and only gave up two hits. He struck out three and walked none. His fastball is ranking from the low to mid 90’s and he also threw a sharp slider. I have him ranked as the 23rd starting pitcher, but may move him up into the top 20 this week.

Kendrys Morales: No stats accumulated

Morales has not played a single game in Spring Training, but more importantly, he has not had any setbacks to date. He ran the bases on Sunday and Monday with no setbacks and could be a draft day steal if he remains healthy and is in the Angel’s opening day lineup. Morales is currently ranked as the 29th first baseman on Fantasy Pros. He has not played a game since he broke his leg on May 29, 2010. Morales is a player that you can take a flyer on in the end of your league drafts and he has a lot of upside. I am not concerned about Mark Trumbo or Bobby Abreu being in the DH mix.

Alan Harrison – The Fantasy Fix

Elvis Andrus: 8-for-17, .471 BA, 0 HRs, 2 RBI, 0 SO

Elvis Andrus may never have the power to be considered a top-tier short stop and a first round fantasy talent, but his continuous improvement at just 23 years-old justifies his ascension up the draft boards. Thus far, Andrus is 8-for-17 with a triple, two doubles, six runs and two RBIs in the Cactus League. Called the best base runner in the Major Leagues by Bill James heading into the 2012 season, look for Andrus to approach .280, with 100 runs and 40 stolen bases to warrant your fourth round selection.

Yoenis Cespedes: 2-for-5, .400 BA, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SO

In the 2010-11 season the Cuban sensation produced a .333/.424/.667 triple slash, 80 runs, 33 home runs and 99 RBI in just 90 games. It is difficult to translate those numbers into MLB productivity, however, we caught a glimpse of his raw power during his 2-for-2 debut this past Saturday, when he muscled a line drive home run and collected two RBIs. With a respectable writer noting it is 85% likely Cespedes will break Spring Training with the big boys, I will be pouncing on him any time after the 14th round in mixed leagues, just so I don’t miss the boat.

Matt Gelfand – Baseball HQ

Josh Beckett: 9 IP, 1.00 ERA, 3 Ks, 4 BB

Josh Beckett has a lot to prove this season. The “beer and chicken incident” has resulted in spectators becoming more critical than ever about his work ethic and weight, which isn’t completely unfounded given his inconsistency over the past four seasons. However, we can chalk 2010’s 5.78 ERA up to injuries and bad luck – he maintained his near-elite skills throughout the year – and they shined through in 2011. A strong Spring Training will help silence the skeptics for now.

Brett Lawrie: 11-for-19, .579 BA, 0 HRs, 8 RBI, 3 steals

It’s difficult to gauge Brett Lawrie’s value, because it’s hard for many drafters not to over-hype him following 2011’s dynamic .293/9/25/7 line in a 150 at-bat debut. He’s a highly-touted prospect, yes, but he’s still only 22, and has already succumbed to multiple injuries (hand, finger), which only increases risk. However, he’s bound to out-perform his average draft position (ADP) based on potential alone, and his early success this Spring Training only reinforces the notion that 2011 wasn’t a fluke.

 
Q2: Which 2 guys are you moving down your rankings the most and why?  

Steve Gardner – USA Today

Kenley Jansen: 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0 SV, 1 K, 2 BBs

Although it’s not for performance reasons, I’m moving Kenley Jansen of the Dodgers down in my rankings because it looks like manager Don Mattingly isn’t going to use Spring Training to determine who his closer will be on opening day. He said last week that it’s “defined” that Javy Guerra will start the season as the closer. Jansen has elite strikeout stuff and it seemed like only a matter of time before he took over the job, but that looks like it will have to take place later rather than sooner.

David Wright: No stats accumulated

The other guy I may have overvalued earlier is David Wright. It’s not just the injury issues, although they are a factor. I think the reflex of moving Wright up because they moved the fences in at Citi Field was probably ill advised. Part of Wright’s fantasy value has been due to his ability to steal bases (27 in 2009). As injuries and age have begun to affect him, those steals totals have gone down. With the Mets offense looking weaker than it’s been in the past, he’s less likely to put up big numbers. I’m dropping him below Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Beltre and out of the top tier of third basemen.

Jeff Boggis – Fantasy Sports Empires

Jake Peavy: 4.1 IP, 18.69 ERA, 3 Ks, 2 BBs

Jake Peavy was roughed up for his second consecutive outing on Monday. He allowed 6 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in less than 3 innings. In Spring Training, Peavy now owns an 18.69 ERA in 4 1/3 innings pitched. Not even worth a flyer at the end of league drafts.

Kenley Jansen: 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0 SV, 1 K, 2 BBs

I initially had Kenley Jansen as one of my 2012 sleepers, but his true value is obtaining saves. But Javy Guerra was the closer at the end of last season and manager Don Mattingly confirmed last Wednesday that Guerra will open the season as the closer for the Dodgers. That’s not to say that Jansen won’t take over as the closer sometime this season, but in fantasy league drafts, Jansen is currently going as the 21st closer drafted while Guerra is being drafted as the 33rd closer off the board. Temper your expectations for Kenley Jansen and grab Javy Guerra late in your fantasy baseball drafts.

Alan Harrison – The Fantasy Fix

Jacoby Ellsbury: 2-for-13, .154 BA, 0 HRs, 0 RBI, 2 Ks

Strutting a .154/.154/.231 triple slash in five Spring Training contests is no way to follow up a career year for the 2011 American League MVP runner-up. Yes, it is a very small sample size and just Spring Training, but I do believe Jacoby Ellsbury returns to 2008 form as opposed to duplicating 2011. I would gladly select Ellsbury in the second round if he fell into my lap, but won’t expect it.

Jason Heyward: 4-for-24, .167 BA, 0 HRs, 3 RBI, 8 Ks
Many expect Jason Heyward to bounce back in 2012 after his sophomore slump. However, his Spring triple slash of .167/.231/.208 isn’t very convincing. Heyward has already accumulated eight whiffs in 24 at-bats while drawing just two walks, which is a bit of a concern. Like noted with Ellsbury, this is a small sample and should be taken with a grain of salt, but Heyward is descending down my draft boards and wouldn’t be considered before the tenth round.

Matt Gelfand – Baseball HQ

Jason Heyward: 4-for-24, .167 BA, 0 HRs, 3 RBI, 8 Ks

Shoulder woes resulted in a 2011 season so maddening for Jason Heyward owners that he may have already blacklisted himself from some rosters at age 22. The optimist in me thinks he should be forgiven because of his youth and pedigree, but his poor spring stats might have some owners wondering if he’s truly 100 percent recovered. Heyward also needs to figure out lefties (.192 BA) and stop pounding the ball into the ground (54 percent) in order to reach the potential he flashed during his rookie season.

Jake Peavy: 4.1 IP, 18.69 ERA, 3Ks, 2 BBs

Jake Peavy’s seemingly been around forever, and most owners will probably dispatch him to pitcher purgatory with the likes of other brittle hurlers such as Rich Harden and Erik Bedard because of his last two injury-plagued seasons, never to be seen or heard from again. However, he’s only two seasons removed from a 10-win, 3.60 ERA season, and at age 31 he theoretically is in the midst of his prime. Better health and luck would make him a sneaky end-game bargain, but those ugly spring stats aren’t doing much to instill confidence in a rebound.

—

That wraps up this week’s edition of Featured Pros’ advice. Thanks to the Pros for chiming in with their opinions. Be sure to visit each expert’s site and follow them on Twitter for additional insight.

Photo Credit