Worth the "big" risk?
With the start of the baseball season just one week away, there’s a good chance you’re prepping for an upcoming fantasy draft. Of course, why else would you be reading a fantasy baseball article with ‘Draft Tips’ in the subject?
Fortunately, you’ve come to the right place for some draft advice. To help out, we’ve rounded up several top fantasy experts and asked them to share their insight. The Featured Pros will hand out draft day tips along with their picks for risky players to target & avoid.
Read on to see what the Pros have to say…
| High Risk/High Reward Picks | ||
| Expert | Player to Target | Player to Avoid |
| Eno Sarris – FanGraphs | Brett Lawrie (TOR) | Matt Holliday (STL) |
| Joel Beall – Fox Sports | Josh Johnson (MIA) | Hanley Ramirez (MIA) |
| Josh Shepardson – The Hardball Times | Matt Wieters (BAL) | Josh Johnson (MIA) |
| Zach Greubel – Win My Fantasy League | Stephen Strasburg (WAS) | Justin Morneau (MIN) |
| Jon Connolly – Fantasy Baseball Champ | Hanley Ramirez (MIA) | David Wright (NYM) |
| Tim Young – MLB Soup | Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) | David Wright (NYM) |
| Brien Bonneville – The Fake Baseball | Dan Uggla (ATL) | David Wright (NYM) |
Q1: Is there a high risk/high reward player you’re targeting as someone who will come through big this season?
Brett Lawrie (TOR): He has power and speed. He doesn’t strike out too much. He plays a premium position. People like to talk about his age and the fact that he didn’t show as much power in the Brewer system, but even if he showed league average power, he’d basically be a young David Wright. A .280 average, 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases seem like a conservative estimate for a full season from the young Blue Jays first baseman, and he’s going in the fourth round in many drafts. That’s tasty.
Josh Johnson (MIA): Man’s been brittle in the past, and early reports paint the Marlins’ new park as hitter friendly. Yet when healthy, few are better on the mound than the Miami ace. With an improved offense at his side, could see a nice bump in the “W” column.
Josh Shepardson – The Hardball Times
Matt Wieters (BAL): Wieters is a player I’m targeting heavily this year. Many believe it is risky to pay a premium for a catcher given the wear and tear they suffer in the field. Wieters has the added risk of a short track record of big league success, and only modest success at that. He has shown growth throughout his big league career, reducing his strikeout rate each of the last two years, and increasing his power as measured by isolated slugging (ISO) in the same time span. After struggling as a switch hitter versus left-handed pitching in 2009 and 2010, Wieters crushed the ball against southpaws in 2011. His numbers against right-handed pitching went the wrong way last year, but he has already displayed the ability to hit righties. I expect 2012 to be the season he puts it together hitting both left-handed, and right-handed pitching hard. A bit more luck on the balls he hits in play, and Wieters has the makings of a 25 plus home run hitter with an average north of .280. That would be elite production from a position that’s not noted for its offense.
Zach Greubel – Win My Fantasy League
Stephen Strasburg (WAS): I see Strasburg as a high risk/high reward player that will pay off this season. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery which, obviously, is the risk and will reportedly be held to around 160 innings this season. However, in the 92 innings he has pitched in his short career so far he has struck out 116 batters. Even if he does only pitch 160 innings, that’ still over 200 strikeouts.
Jon Connolly – Fantasy Baseball Champ
Hanley Ramirez (MIA): You don’t have to be a fantasy expert to know he had an awful 2011. You also don’t have to be an expert to know a BABIP 50 points below career average can result in a career worst season. Just last year, Ramirez was a consensus top 3 pick. But now, after a few unlucky months, he’s ranked 20th overall here at FantasyPros and similarly on other sites. He is still an elite talent at a premium position, and we should almost certainly see him return to near career norm levels in 2012. You should be able to draft him in the second round and get first round value out of him.
Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS): Ellsbury put together a monster season in 2011, one that he probably won’t repeat in 2012. However, Outfield is a relatively scarce position, and even if he regresses, Ellsbury is a tremendous talent. Even if his HR totals are down to the high teens or low twenties, you’re still getting a player who fills every single category. He’s a second round pick, and he’s definitely worth it.
Brien Bonneville – The Fake Baseball
Dan Uggla (ATL): In 2011, Uggla was going in the second round of most fantasy drafts but after a disappointing season he is the 49th overall ranked player on Fantasypros.com’s 2012 ranks. Last year, Uggla began his first season with a dramatic first half slump and batted .174 with 15 HR over the first three months. Though too little too late to make a huge difference in most of his offensive numbers, he was able to right the ship and went off for a career-high 36 home runs and even put together a nice 33-game hitting streak.
His first half of 2011, was an anomaly – just a bad slump for a guy who moved to a new city with high expectations. He’s not a stud anymore but he’s certainly a good value, with good power, in the late 4th early 5th rounds. If you miss out on Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler with your first 3-4 picks, you can do a lot worse in filling a shallow 2B slot.
Q2: On the flip side, is there a high risk/high reward player that you would avoid investing a significant draft pick on?
Matt Holliday (STL): He no longer has any stolen base speed, and in non-OBP leagues, he’s a pretty average with a mediocre home run total, and good runs and RBI numbers — all of this adds up to a decent player, but not an elite one. Don’t spend on him like he’s a second-rounder, or elite talent, just pick him up if he drops to the third, or costs closer to $20. The team around him can help, but he’s older, more likely to hit the DL this year, and doesn’t steal bases any more.
Hanley Ramirez (MIA): For a guy that’s burned owners the past two seasons, Hanley Ramirez is sure getting a lot of love in early drafts. I understand the lack of depth at the 3B/SS positions, and perhaps he reverts back to his 2009 performance. Plus, I dig the “El Nino” nickname, which is always a plus. Alas, I’m looking to construct a strong foundation with my early-round selections, a sentiment that Han-Ram fails to provide. Sometimes, the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze.
Josh Shepardson – The Hardball Times
Josh Johnson (MIA): Johnson is the high risk/high reward player I will be passing on in drafts this year. He was lights out last year when healthy. Unfortunately, he wasn’t healthy much of last year and durability has been a constant issue for Johnson. He has bested 200 innings pitched just one time in his career that dates back to his first full season in the big leagues in 2006. He’s missed time due to forearm, elbow and shoulder injuries, and simply isn’t worth the risk. Let him cause someone else headaches, and move on to one of the many other talented pitching options available.
Zach Greubel – Win My Fantasy League
Justin Morneau (MIN): He is a high risk/high reward guy I’d stay away from. The risk is just too high. A raindrop could fall on his head and he’d get a concussion. There are plenty of safer and better options out there.
Jon Connolly – Fantasy Baseball Champ
David Wright (NYM): He could be the best or worst choice you make in the draft. But more likely he’ll be a worse choice than say, Pablo Sandoval. Wright’s increasing K rate, unstable power, and decreasing OBP are all cause for worry. He is still a very good 3rd baseman, but he is likely to be drafted above what his production will warrant this year. Bottom line, there is too much downside and too little upside to use a top pick on him.
David Wright (NYM): In 2008, David Wright was hitting .325, knocking 30 HR, stealing 30 bases, and accumulating well over 100 Runs and RBIs. However, 4 years have gone by, along with his health, power, speed, and Jose Reyes. He still has the potential to be a star player, but he’s not worth a 3rd round pick. I’d much rather wait a round or two and draft Zimmerman, Sandoval, Lawrie, or Youkilis.
Brien Bonneville – The Fake Baseball
David Wright (NYM): Leagues are never won by the first three picks you make but they can certainly be lost. With my first three picks in any fake baseball draft, safety is the key. I’m avoiding David Wright like he has the plague. His injuries seem to be here for good. He’s averaged nearly 30 missed games in each of the last three years and has put up extremely disappointing numbers during two of those seasons. In December, I was optimistic that Wright would be healthy and ripe for a bounce-back year. Fast forward to today: he has yet to play in a game this spring, is receiving cortisone injections and may not be ready to start the season. Even if fully healthy, I just don’t see how the last Met standing can replicate his old numbers in a lineup that just lost the NL Batting Champ, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran. How he’s still being drafted in the late second round of most fantasy drafts is beyond me.
Go ahead grab him in the second round but I’ve seen that movie before and it doesn’t end well. If you miss out on the elite 3B (Jose Bautista, Evan Longoria and soon-to-be-eligible Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez), skip David Wright and wait another round or two to grab other guys in the next tier.
Q3: If you could give folks 1 strategy tip heading into their drafts, what piece of advice would you offer?
A common theme: "Wait on Pitching"
Wait on pitchers. Pitchers are more likely to hit the Disabled List than hitters and they stay longer once they hit. The average starting pitcher is 39% likely to hit the DL this year! Also, while you have to get a ‘shortstop’ and a ‘first baseman,’ most leagues allow you to just find nine ‘pitchers.’ This general bucket means there will be more pitchers left at the end of the draft than second baseman, for example. Of course there are tiers in the pitcher ranks, too, so make sure you get a couple guys from the end of the first tier — your Yovani Gallardos and Dan Harens work — but don’t take them too early. Pick Tim Lincecum the year he goes kaput and your draft results will hurt to look at.
Pitching can be found. The depth of formidable fantasy arms for the 2012 campaign is astonishing. Don’t get bullied into snagging a starter early, as solid contributors can be attained in the later rounds.
Josh Shepardson – The Hardball Times
If I could give one piece of advice to fantasy gamers, it would be to go into the draft with a plan, but adjust accordingly to the draft atmosphere. Regardless of whether it is a snake draft, or an auction, preparation is key. That said, every draft has its own unique feel. Being able to adjust to quirks and trends that present themselves during the draft is key. Do owners seem to be willing to pay for youth and upside without regard for bust potential? If so, it may prove worthwhile to select your upside gambles later in the draft, and bank on established veteran production early. No two drafts are the same, and finding undervalued commodities in any draft can be the difference between being an also ran, and a champion.
Zach Greubel – Win My Fantasy League
Don’t try to over-analyze or over-think during a draft. I like to draft players based on consistency, especially when I start over-analyzing a situation. If you have a choice between a player like Eric Hosmer or Freddie Freeman and a player like Paul Konerko, don’t be afraid to go with Konerko. Hosmer and Freeman may seem more appealing because of their upside but Konerko has shown that he can succeed season after season.
Jon Connolly – Fantasy Baseball Champ
Plan. Plan. Plan, that’s a capital P-LAN your draft ahead of time. Drafting without a plan is like walking blindfolded into a minefield; you end up with Yuniesky Betancourt and Derrek Lee in your lineup. Don’t be the guy starting Yuniesky Betancourt and Derrek Lee. Plan ahead. Target 3 or so guys you want at each position and tier and know their ADP. Also, keep track of your sleepers and lotto tickets, but don’t be too eager for them. They’re called sleepers for a reason, after all.
Fantasy value is driven by scarcity. Everything is relative. Take the Shortstop position, for instance. Since there isn’t much of a sure-bet beyond Tulowitzki, his value skyrockets. The reason he’s a great 1st round pick is that the drop-off from Tulowitzki to the next best shortstop, considering Reyes’ injury history, is bigger than the difference between #1 and #2 at any other position.
Brien Bonneville – The Fake Baseball
Wait on pitching. Yes, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez and CC Sabathia are great but pitching is deep and the drop-off in offensive production that you lose out on with those elite SP picks isn’t worth it. In most 12-team league drafts this year, I wait on pitching until the 5-6th round (Scale up or down depending on your league size). After those 5-6 rounds, I go on a pitching run for 3-4 picks and my pitching staffs have included a handful of these guys: Yovani Gallardo, Jeremy Hellickson, CJ Wilson, Madison Bumgarner, Adam Wainwright, Mat Latos, Michael Pineda, Stephen Strasburg.
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That wraps up this week’s edition of Featured Pros’ advice. Thanks to the Pros for chiming in with their opinions. Be sure to visit each expert’s site and follow them on Twitter for additional insight.
Best of luck to everyone with their drafts!
