Is McCoy poised to run wild against a shaky Saints run defense?
The prime time game on Saturday (8:10pm EST) is a clash between two potent offenses. The Eagles roll into the matchup having won 7 of their last 8 games. Meanwhile, the Saints seemingly righted their own ship by trouncing the Bucs in week 17 to qualify for the playoffs.
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A big storyline for the Saints has been their road woes (3-5 for the season). Add in the anticipated cold weather Saturday night (game time temps in the 20s) and you have a recipe for the Saints being a road underdog, despite sporting a better record than the Eagles. So who do the experts like in this game? Read on to get their picks against the spread.
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41% | 59% |
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“I know that Drew Brees has been a different player on the road, but Philly has one of the softest secondaries in the NFL, and the Saints defense is at least competent this year. ”
– Mike Tagliere Tags Fantasy Football “At 3-5, New Orleans isn’t a great road team, but Philly is the only playoff team with four home losses. Something’s gotta give, and I’m banking on the Saints’ playoff experience to tip the scales in their favor in this score-fest. ”
– Austin Lee Pro Football Focus “The Saints have lost three games outdoors, on the road–all three teams have playoff BYEs (SEA, NE, CAR). Two of those three losses were last second/drive (NE, CAR). The Saints have quality losses on the road, outdoors. Drew Brees +2.5 points against an inexperienced QB in a big spot. I love Foles to death, but this is asking for a lot of trust here. I’ll take the smart money with Brees.”
– R.C. Fischer Fantasy Football Metrics “As much as Drew Brees and that offense have struggled on the road, it’s hard to imagine they won’t put up points against that Eagles defense. Experience will win out here.”
– Alessandro Miglio Pro Football Focus  “The Saints don’t usually do well when playing games outside (2-4 in 2013), but with the exception of one loss (34-7 at Seattle) the other 3 losses came by a combined 13 points. They were in each of those games. Other than a dominating win against Chicago week 16, the Eagles have been suspect at home being outscored 148-138. Resistable force meets moveable object here and with that being the case, I’ll put my chips on Drew Brees and the Saints. ”
– Russ Bliss Fantasy Football Starters “New Orleans’ road woes (3-5) are no secret, but Drew Brees has a tasty match-up against the NFL’s worst pass defense (296.8 passing yards/game allowed). Philadelphia just allowed Jason Witten to go off for 12 catches and 135 yards receiving, so just imagine the kind of numbers that Jimmy Graham can put up on Saturday. The Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning seven of their past eight games, but they were just 1-3 this season against playoff teams. Sean Payton and Drew Brees have Super Bowl rings, whilst Chip Kelly and Nick Foles have never been to the NFL playoffs. I think the Saints win outright — the fact that they’re getting points is just icing on the cake.”
– Ryan Rufe RotoBaller “This could be the game football fans want to watch during Wild Card weekend. As a road team, the Saints scare me. All five of their losses came on the road in 2013. I just don’t trust the Eagles defense enough to not choose the Saints here.”
– Zach Greubel Gridiron Experts “The fairy tale season for Philadelphia continues through this weekend. New Orleans is incapable of performing optimally on the road. They’ve lost to some sub-par teams when traveling, and a hot Philly team is more than capable of putting an end to a Saints season that been very cold this December. ”
– Nathan Miller Revelation Sports “This is going to be a high scoring game, but the Eagles pass defense is so bad and Drew Brees should pick them apart. This is going to be a gun-slinging game, but the Saints have the edge. ”
– James Hatfield Hatty Waiver Wire Guru “Kyle Orton almost led a depleted Dallas team to a victory over the Eagles. A guy who hasn’t started a game in years tossed two touchdowns and 358 yards against this atrocious Eagles pass D. Drew Brees, though he isn’t the same on the road, will torch this unit. He has the experience in the playoffs, whereas Chip Kelly and Nick Foles don’t”
– Adam Pfeifer Rant Sports “The Eagles defense won’t be able to contain the high scoring Saints offense.”
– Ross Miles Pro Football Focus “Picking the Saints to win on the road makes me squeamish. But Drew Brees and Sean Payton have been through quite a few playoff games together, while Nick Foles and Chip Kelly are getting their first taste. Didn’t like the way Philly looked against Dallas last week. After what Jason Witten did to them, is there any chance they can keep Jimmy Graham under control?”
– Pat Fitzmaurice The Football Girl “The Saints have too many weapons for the inexperienced playoff Eagles. We don’t think this is the year for Chip Kelly and Nick Foles. Expect Brees to expose a weak Eagles secondary.”
– Jordan Tozzi Legion Report “Say what you will about Drew Brees’ struggles away from the Superdome, but I expect he’ll be just fine against a suspect Eagles defense.”
– Greg Smith The Fake Football “Both teams can put up points at will, but the Saints defense will prove the difference maker in an easy against the spread pick.”
– Staff Rankings Fantasy Knuckleheads “The Saints take all of their combined experience and go marching into Philly against a comparatively inexperienced coach/quarterback combo.”
– Dave McKay The Fantasy Sports Brain “I know New Orleans is not know for their road ability, but the Eagles have the worst home record of the Wildcard round at 4-4. You have to love Drew Brees, who averages 307 yards per game, going against the worst ranked passing defense in yards allowed, as the Eagles give up 290 yards per game. The Saints also have a very good pass defense this year, as they allow 194 yards per game, and also they have racked up 49 sacks. I will take the 2.5, as I feel New Orleans will win this game outright. ”
– Dan Yanotchko EDSFootball “The Saint’ defense is underrated and will slow the Eagles’ young weapons.”
– Steve Wyremski Dynasty League Football “Even though the Saints have been horrendous on the road in recent weeks, two of those losses were to the Seahawks and Panthers, who are the #1 & #2 scoring and yardage defenses in the NFL. I think the Saints will have better luck on the road against a suspect Eagles D. They will not only cover the spread, but win the game.”
– Derek Lofland Fantasy Football Maniax |
“These are two teams with potent offenses, but their defenses have been at times great and at other times horrendous. It’s hard to pick against Drew Brees, but at the end of the day the Saints aren’t a very good road team and the Eagles offense is a force. Look for the Chip Kelly track meet to continue in the playoffs.”
– Kelly Smelser Punch Drunk Wonderland “Philadelphia enters this game very hot, and New Orleans’ road struggles are too real and have occurred too many times to overlook. Philadelphia has excelled at not turning the ball over, and that should continue against a far-from-fearsome New Orleans defense. ”
– Ryan Hester footballandbrackets “I really want to take the Saints in this one because I believe in Drew Brees’ ability, but the statistics for him on the road this season are just a little too scary to back. ”
– Chet Gresham The Fake Football “The stat you need to know: New Orleans is 3-5 in road games this season. The weather will play a big factor as temperatures will be in the 20’s on Saturday night. This does not bode well for New Orleans, who is a dome team and has lost their last 3 road games. This should be a high scoring game, but look for Philadelphia to come out on top at the end. ” “It’s hard to ignore the fact that Philly is third in Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA which gives more weight to more recent games. The Eagles are just playing really good football lately. And then there is the issue of home field advantage, or rather road field disadvantage. Drew Brees has always been a little better at home since becoming a Saint, but his splits this year are massive. At home his completion percentage is nine points higher, and he averages over two yards more per attempt, which is why the Saints were unbeaten at home and 3-5 on the road.”
– Brett Talley The Fantasy Fix “This will be Foles’ post-season coming out party. He will go throw for throw with Brees but Philly’s running game will be the difference.”
– Adrian Pereira eDraft “New Orleans has lost five of their last six road games this season and with Philadelphia playing well of late, they should be able to hold off the Saints. Away from home, Brees isn’t the same and won’t be able to put together the monstrous performance he will need to get New Orleans the win (or the cover).”
– Jeff Brubach The Fake Football “The Saints allow 4.6 yards per carry, and I think the Eagles will move at will. I’m also buying into the Saints’ road woes, especially in the cold weather. This game has blowout potential.”
– John Halpin Fox Sports “The New Orleans Saints have struggled on the road this year going 3-5, and averaging just 17.75 PPG on the road, compared to 34 PPG at home.”
– Brian Dezelske Pro Football Central “LeSean McCoy rushes for 110 (and 1 TD) of the 171 total rushing yards the Eagles will have against a Saints defense that has allowed 129.5 rush yards per game on the road this season. Drew Brees throws 2 TD’s, but the Analyzer software has NIck Foles for 293 yards and 2 TD’s as well as the Eagles beat the Saints by 8 points; 28-20.”
– Site Projections Fantasy Football Starters “One of the big stories of the season was the home/road splits of Drew Brees. He will come into hostile territory where it’s expected to be at or around 35 degrees (and not 73 degrees in a dome). While Brees may be able to shred Philadelphia’s secondary, the Birds’ home field advantage will allow them to win and cover. The key for the Eagles here is ball control – give LeSean McCoy the rock and let him dance through the line into the secondary. If the Eagles’ defense is well-rested, look for Brees to get pressured and force throws into tight coverage. ”
– Tony Mauriello FantasyTrade411 “Philly has a team that can beat anyone when things are going their way. At home, I think things go their way in a big way, led by their two dogs (Foles and McCoy).”
– Staff Rankings Draft Calc “The Saints struggle on the road and Philadelphia is just playing too well. I expect the Eagles to win a high scoring contest.”
– Nate Hodges Pro Football Focus “It’s just impossible to trust the Saints on the road, and now they travel to a harsh environment in Philadelphia. Say what you will about the Saints vastly improved pass D, they sport a bottom 5 run D by allowing 4.6ypc on the year. LeSean McCoy should have a field day, which will open things up for Foles and the passing game.”
– Staff Rankings 2MugsFF “Regardless of what Sean Payton and Saints bring with them to Philly, the Saints are clearly much better at home in the dome than they are on the road. Drew Brees has a 27:3 TD-to-INT ratio, 9.12 Y/A and 126.3 passer rating at home; those numbers drop to 12:9 TD-to-INT ratio, 6.86 Y/A and 84.8 passer rating on the road. With Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson, the Eagles have the offensive firepower to match the Saints punch for punch if this game develops into a shootout.”
– Kevin Hanson EDSFootball “The thing about the Saints being so much worse on the road this season is that the Eagles have had the worst home-field advantage over the past couple of years. Still, New Orleans is a dome team who will be playing in freezing conditions in a night game, and Nick Foles just finished a season in which he got 9.1 YPA with a 27:2 TD:INT ratio.”
– Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports “The Eagles have been unstoppable with Nick Foles, winning seven of their last eight games. Meanwhile, all five Saints losses, including games against the Jets and Rams, came on the road while the Eagles are undefeated in their last four home games.”
– Igor Derysh XN Sports “Hardest game of the week for me, I like how Philly is playing and New Orleans away from the dome has been just average.”
– Ken Zalis Fans Fantasy Football “Drew Brees and the Saints are a different team on the road. Home stats for Brees 73.6%, 2,835 yards, 27TDs 3INTs. Road, 64%, 2,327 yards, 12TDs, 9 INTS. The Saints as a team are 3-5 on the road. If we get the bad Drew Brees on the road, this could wind up being a blow out with the Eagles offense being as good as it is.”
– Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack “At this point, the Saints’ road woes have been well-documented. New Orleans’ prolific offense failed to score more than 20 points in six of its eight road games (as opposed to scoring at least 23 in every home contest), something it will need to do this weekend. New Orleans’ defense has issues stopping the run, so it doesn’t bode well that Philadelphia features the league’s leading rusher in LeSean McCoy, who should have a field day at Lincoln Financial Field.”
– Doug Orth FFToday “Philly is hot coming into in the playoffs winning 7 of 8 games, and New Orleans struggles on the road. ”
– Sean Beazley EDSFootball “The way the Saints win games is through the air, and Drew Brees didn’t throw more than two TDs in any outdoor game all season long. Philly is rolling and will stay on a roll.”
– Dawgmatica Pyromaniac “New Orleans has performed so terribly on the road this season and that is all I need to know. Philadelphia should have little trouble moving the ball against the Saints.”
– Staff Rankings FFLockerRoom “I actually don’t have all that much faith in the Eagles, but Drew Brees is a different man outside in the elements. On the flip-side, Philly can absolutely hang with the Saints if this game turns into a high-scoring affair.”
– Kevin Roberts NFL Soup “Drew Brees isn’t Drew Brees away from NOLA and injuries on defense are sure to catch up with them – especially against a high-octane offense like the Eagles.”
– Chad Scott The Fake Football “I know I’m going against Saints history here and that the playoffs are always a new season but Brees on the road was abysmal this year with a 12:9 TD to INT ratio and the Saints averaged almost 10 less points per game away from the Dome. Its hard trusting the rookie QB even if he’s at home but Philly but Foles would really have to underperform and NOLA would have to play above what they have on the road this year for me to see it in a different light.”
– Sky Sperling Razzball “The Saints can’t stop the run away from home and LeSean McCoy is in for a big week. Weather could play a big part in this game and I like Philly’s chances in the cold.”
– Walton Spurlin FantasySharks “If ever there was a game where Drew Brees and the Saints could trump their road woes, it may be this weekend in Philadelphia, given that the Eagles have allowed the most passing yards in the league but this defense comes in hot and early projections have the Linc sitting at 25 degrees on game day. Brees sports a dismal 12:9 TD:INT ratio (including a 9:7 split outdoors) in eight road games, and to top that off New Orleans’ road struggles have as much to do with their 28th ranked road run offense as they do the pass game. Nick Foles – the owner of nine games with over a 100 QB rating in 11 starts will outperform the vet as the Eagles ‘fly’ to victory.”
– Jon Collins Fantasy Sports LR “This line surprised a few people when it was posted, and as such I would expect to see a lot of action on New Orleans. That would be a mistake. New Orleans crushes people at home, but they are a much different team on the road. All five of New Orleans losses came on the road this season including blemishes to powerhouses like St. Louis and the New York Jets. They are simply a league average offense on the road, and that will not be enough to keep up with Nick Foles and company. ” “The Saints scored a dismal 14 touchdowns in eight regular season road games. During his career, Drew Brees has been decent on the road, but no where near the dominant player he is at the Superdome. We’ve already seen the emerging Eagles perform well in frigid temperatures and they’ll get the job done again this Saturday night.”
– Mike Clay Pro Football Focus |
Thanks to the experts for stopping by to give us their picks. Feel free to let us know if you agree with their take in the comments.
