Mario Williams and the Bills are a top D/ST with a matchup vs. the Jets in Week 12

Dylan Lerch has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for three straight seasons, and each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him @dtlerch.

When it comes to picking your fantasy D/ST, is it more important to choose a team with a good defense, or should you be looking for a good matchup instead? If Week 11 results are to be believed, then it’s a healthy combination of both, but with the matchup being the far more important consideration.

Take our second-ranked D/ST last week, the San Diego Chargers: Entering Week 11, they had scored just 35 points, including consecutive -6 finishes in Weeks 9 and 10, and had been averaging -2.5 points per game over their previous four. Week 11? A strong 10 point finish.

How about our third-ranked D/ST last week, the Chicago Bears? Scoring just 36 points through week 10 and -11 in their last two, it was the Bears’ opponent who became the trendy D/ST pick of the week among fantasy analysts in Week 11. The Bears rewarded owners with 9 D/ST points, while Vikings owners were left with just 1 disappointing point.

In fact as a whole, the entire top 10 of last week’s Defense Wins Championships column performed admirably, especially when compared to consensus. Consensus top tier choices Denver (3 points), Detroit (4), and Cleveland (-1) all fell short of average, while regular readers here would have had access to the Chargers or Bears virtually across the board. Going deeper, we had the Cardinals, 49ers, and Packers significantly higher than consensus, and each D/ST scored 10+! Bolstered of course by Green Bay’s 26 points, the top 12 recommendations from last week averaged 9 points!

Only one thing is for certain though: Win or lose, we must be looking ever onward to Week 12.

Week 12 D/ST Projections (ESPN Standard Scoring)

*The projections lean heavily on the work of Vegas oddsmakers to get a realistic idea of a raw scoring expectation for each team. Then, the normal D/ST components (sacks, turnovers, and D/ST touchdowns) are projected based on matchup and combined with Vegas to come up with a final number. The projection represents an “Expected Value,” or the weighted sum of all outcomes across the scoring range.

1. Buffalo Bills D/ST, 11.1 points vs New York Jets
2. Indianapolis Colts D/ST, 10.7 vs Jacksonville
3. Philadelphia Eagles D/ST, 10.0 vs Tennessee
4. Green Bay Packers D/ST, 9.6 at Minnesota
5. San Francisco 49ers D/ST, 9.3 vs Washington
6. Kansas City Chiefs D/ST, 8.6 at Raiders
7. Chicago Bears D/ST, 8.1 vs Tampa Bay
8. New England Patriots D/ST, 7.9 vs Detroit
9. Houston Texans D/ST, 7.4 vs Cincinnati
10. San Diego Chargers D/ST, 7.0 vs St. Louis
11. Seattle Seahawks D/ST, 7.0 vs Arizona
12. Denver Broncos D/ST, 6.0 vs Miami
13. Dallas Cowboys D/ST, 5.3 at New York Giants
14. Cincinnati Bengals D/ST, 4.9 at Houston
15. Atlanta Falcons D/ST, 4.8 vs Cleveland
16. New York Jets D/ST, 4.5 at Buffalo
17. New Orleans Saints D/ST, 4.3 vs Baltimore
18. New York Giants D/ST, 3.3 vs Dallas
19. Cleveland Browns D/ST, 3.3 at Atlanta
20. Arizona Cardinals D/ST, 2.9 at Seattle
21. Baltimore Ravens D/ST, 2.5 at New Orleans
22. St. Louis Rams D/ST, 2.2 at San Diego
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST, 2.1 at Chicago
24. Washington Redskins D/ST, 1.7 at San Francisco
25. Oakland Raiders D/ST, 1.5 vs Kansas City
26. Detroit Lions D/ST, 0.6 at New England
27. Miami Dolphins D/ST, 0.4 at Denver
28. Minnesota Vikings D/ST, -0.8 vs Green Bay
29. Tennessee Titans D/ST, -1.6 at Philadelphia
30. Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST, -3.3 at Indianapolis

On Bye: Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers

Tier 1: Buffalo, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Green Bay

Finally, we’ve found ourselves with a crowded top tier! Let’s see if we can safely navigate our way through it one by one.

The Buffalo Bills find themselves atop the leaderboard for sacks (39), sixth in interceptions (12), and seventh in forced fumbles (12). Only two teams have forced more turnovers than the Bills, and they’re matched up this week at home against one of the most turnover prone, the New York Jets. This game also profiles as the lowest-scoring on the board, with Vegas crediting the Jets for just 17.5 points. And if that all weren’t enough, the Jets have been averaging more than 3 sacks allowed per game over their last five.

The Colts get the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. That should be enough said! Just in case it’s not though, remember that the Jaguars are the most generous team to opposing D/STs (an astounding 13.9 points per game). The Colts have given up 117 points over their last three games, but Vegas cues us in to expect a much more anemic 18.5 for the Jaguars here. The Colts’ pass rush is roughly average, but the Jaguars have allowed a sack in every game and an average of almost 4 per game (and as many as 10 in a single game!).

The Philadelphia Eagles have been flying high all year long, but they were grounded in Green Bay for -5 points. The Titans, meanwhile, would have held the Steelers to a less-than-stellar 2 points if it weren’t for William Gay’s pick-6. What makes this such a strong play then? Vegas has the Titans pegged for just as many points as the Jaguars, for starters. When you factor in Philadelphia’s #1 rated special teams unit (as rated by DVOA), the second-highest sack total in the league (33), and the most fumbles forced in the league (16), you have yourself an elite play.

Speaking of Green Bay, they also find themselves in the elite tier. If the Vikings made the Bears a strong play (as we saw in Week 11), it should be no surprise that the Packers rate similarly, even on the road! In fact, if this game were in Lambeau, it would be far and away the #1 play on the weekend! Road matchups are never ideal for our D/ST choices, but the Vikings have been generous enough to opposing defenses that they remain a top-tier play.

Tier 2: San Francisco, Kansas City

From all the way back in Week 1, we’ve had San Francisco pegged as a second-half team; however, we expected their D/ST to be anchored by Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, not Chris Borland and Michael Wilhoite! However, Borland in particular has stepped up his play, and now leads the team in tackles – after just 4 weeks of starting. The 49ers defense kept their team in the game last week against the Giants, holding them to 10 points and notching 5 interceptions. These are probably lofty expectations to repeat in Week 11, but at home against a Redskins team in turmoil (and who just let the lowly Buccaneers D/ST score 21), they make a very strong play.

The Chiefs round out the top two tiers with a very solid matchup, albeit on the road, against the Raiders. The Oakland Raiders have virtually no run game, one of the least efficient passing games in the league, and have struggled to put up points almost every single week. Even being at home, Vegas has them pegged for less than 18 points! Such a low scoring projection gives the Chiefs plenty of value, even despite the Raiders strong pass blocking (they’ve allowed just 11 sacks all year, and have kept a clean sheet 4 times). Oakland has conceded 6+ points in all but one game this year, and they should do so yet again against Kansas City.

As with each week, we can combine the algorithm’s rankings with our own common sense to create a list of D/ST starters for 12-team leagues.

1. Buffalo
2. Indianapolis
3. Philadelphia
4. Green Bay
5. San Francisco
6. Kansas City
7. New England
8. San Diego
9. Seattle
10. Chicago
11. Houston
12. Denver

Deeper league targets: NY Jets, Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints.

Note that Miami, Detroit, and Baltimore all provide future week value in the playoffs and should be kept on the bench rather than dropped in most cases.

Thank you for reading, and best of luck in Week 12. Let’s clinch some playoff berths!